With new polling figures in, the general election prediction model we covered in November has churned out a new prediction for the next general election:
New prediction: Conservative lead of 9% with 315 seats (11 short of an overall majority)
Previous prediction: Conservative lead of 10% with 322 seats (4 short of an overall majority)
Background to prediction
In November Lib Dem Voice published an exclusive general election prediction, based on the work of a group of academics who have analysed polling data (not just party support levels) in the run up to previous British elections:
Their predictive model works on a three-month lagged structure; i.e. their model uses current information and says “if a General Election were held in three months time, here’s what the result would be.” That is because according to their work, looking at previous general elections, the situation in terms of figures such as leader ratings and government satisfaction three months out from polling day has provided a reliable guide to what then happens on polling day….
The forecasters explain: “These forecasts are based on the Ipsos MORI polling data gathered mid-October (16-18). The key variables from which our votes and seats forecasts are derived are the average approval rate of the government and PM (27.5) and the approval rate of the leader of the opposition (49.0) measured three months before an hypothetical election.”
But with the most likely election date being May next year, there is yet time for those ratings to change before we get to three months out from the election and the point at which the prediction gets ‘frozen’.
Further details of how the prediction is calculated are in my November post.
Thanks to Richard Nadeau and colleagues for providing the predictions.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
The Joy of Six 1528
Endometriosis and acetylation
Reform makes first gain from Conservatives in this by-election cycle
How Chancellor Reeves torpedoed the economy
Michael Meadowcroft: A Liberal of Intellectual Rigour and Uncommon Integrity
Geoff Reid
Tom Bailey
Leonora Scipio
Kira Collins
Daniel Walker
9 Comments
This still doesn’t tell us how many LibDem seats are forecasted….
Although a Tory majority would be no less preferable than another Labour one, this is still a bit close for comfort. To be certain of blocking a Commons majority for either big party, Lib Dems in Lab marginals held from the Tories should be voting Tory where they start within 6 points but voting Labour where the margin is greater than 10 points. The only exceptions are where the Lib Dems are within 6 or so points of second place, like Filton/Bradley Stoke.
Liberal Democrats should not be voting Tory ANYWHERE, period, full-stop, over and out.
Lots of hype about “hung” (the word balanced is surely better), is good for both the Tories and fairly good for Labour, anything to frighten people about “unchartered waters” and uncertaintity. Expect to see the Murdoch press and most of the rest getting increasingly anxious about the lack of “firm government”, and “market jitters”. Fear of the unknown might help the Tories.
Liberal Democrats should not be voting Tory ANYWHERE, period, full-stop, over and out.
Especially not in Daily Mail-reading, curtain-twitching Sadly Broke, famed for its negative equity and yet set to elect an ESTATE AGENT, of all people, on the Tory ticket.
Re: PM’s Andrew Marr interview and ‘Labour’ Budget. Quote ‘there will be a budget, if it is at the right time’. Budgets are ‘customarilly’ held in March, but need not be, as Major had one ot two in the November. The Buget could be held in February and Brown bolts to Palace the day after, thereby curtailing Budget debate, before Dissolution. Probable, fantasical, time will tell.
We live in a global world. The last thing our country needs is a “Little European” LIberal Democratic Party holding the balance of power at Westminster. They would destroy our country and our currency.
The Liberal Democratic Party is neither liberal nor democratic. It supported the illiberal Lisbon Treaty, handing powers to the bureaucratic EU. It opposed giving us a democratic referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The LIberal Party used to be a party of protest. The Liberal Democratic Party is not.
In protest against the Lisbon Treaty, liberals and democrats should vote anything but LIberal Democrat.
What is the point of this prediction ? The methodology is no better than guess work.
Most predictions will be “accurate” to within a few perecentage points in terms of share of vote. So anyone predicting 40% for the Conservatives will claim anything from 38%-42% as spot on and 36 -44% as pretty close, but distorted by some last minute factor/late swing/event etc.
Then there is the ever so silly straight swing calculation “Conservatives 4 seats short of a majority” (does that include their new northern ireland allies I wonder) whereas we all ought to know straight swings never happen
and even if they were indictative the pin point accuracy suggested is obvious nonsense.
Felix: The model is really about the main two parties which is why it’s the majority and vote lead figure that we’ve decided to publish. That’s what the model predicts.
Mouse: Have you looked at the full article referenced in the first prediction post? Far from being guesswork, it’s a carefully worked out model and tested against previous election results. That doesn’t mean it’ll be right of course (and that makes it an interesting test of how good predictions can be) but it’s certainly rather more than guess work.
2 Trackbacks
[…] View: Wootton Bassett demonstrations: another Muslim point of view (12) by Shaaz Mahboob 2. General election prediction: new figures out (9) by Mark Pack 3. Can you come up with a punchy Lib Dem slogan? (56) by Stephen Tall 4. 20,000 […]
[…] General election prediction: new figures out by Mark Pack on Lib Dem Voice. And it predicts a hung parliament. (Quick, someone tell Iain […]