It was great to see actor Hugh Grant out canvassing for Luciana Berger today.
In the first of a series of visits to Lib Dem, Labour and Independent remain supporting candidates who could deny Boris Johnson a majority, he canvassed with Luciana then attended a packed rally.
Great to be joined by @HackedOffHugh in Finchley and Golders Green on the doorstep and at our rally. Hugh talked about the in seat polls conducted here over the last 2 months which show we can win and how important tactical voting is at this election to #StopBrexit pic.twitter.com/N6kP2CkmCM
— Luciana Berger (@lucianaberger) December 1, 2019
The best tweet has to come from Gabriel Rozenberg, quoting that great line of Andie McDowell’s from that last scene in Four Weddings and a Funeral – still an incredibly funny film, if you haven’t seen it.
https://twitter.com/rozgab/status/1201172406183890945?s=20
A little bird tells me that Hugh might be heading Chuka Umunna’s way tomorrow…
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
16 Comments
Good for HG. He knows he will get roundly attacked for this, but he is putting his neck on the line because he cares about Brexit. There’s no doubt his presence will help get the tactical message across in these seats, reaching people we wouldn’t be able to reach on our own.
Meanwhile, the Cornwall Live site is reporting Electoral Calculus polls for all the Cornish seats. They all show the Tories ahead but some of them are all to play for. Including:
St Ives – Tories 43.2%; LibDem 39.9%; Labour 13.7%; Green 2.4%. Others 1%.
North Cornwall – Tories 50.1%; LibDem 35.4%; Labour 13.6%. Others 1%.
Whatever the national polls are showing, these seats are where the real LibDem election campaign is happening.
Am I alone in thinking that the cult of “celebrity” is one of the less attractive and more tawdry features of modern life…………. ? It’s certainly questionable how it fits in with liberal values.
I’m with Rabbie Burns…..
“What though on hamely fare we dine,
Wear hoddin grey, an’ a that;
Gie fools their silks, and knaves their wine;
A Man’s a Man for a’ that:
For a’ that, and a’ that,
Their tinsel show, an’ a’ that;
The honest man, tho’ e’er sae poor,
Is king o’ men for a’ that.”
@David Raw
Don’t forget, David, he did play Jeremy Thorpe in that TV mini series not that long ago. On second thoughts….
Given her pedigree, perhaps we could persuade Helena Bonham Carter to do the same.
Sadly we are sliding very close to our overall performance in the last two general elections. Friday 13th may be a sad day indeed, opening up all sorts of difficult questions.
@theakes
Well the only difficult questions we can expect for after the election; judging by what the latest polls are showing is a farce that is tactical voting. The polls show that tactical voting is actually giving both Labour and Tories substantial gains in the polls. Lib Dems and people that could possibly vote for the Lib Dems are going to be voting Labour. Whereas Labour supporters will still be voting Labour regardless of where they are in the country, especially in Lib/Tory marginals. And this surge in Labour’s support is making Tory remainers run back to the Tories in panic.
Yusuf’s analysis is worrying, but worst case. It is more likely that Hugh Grant’s idea of practical, tactical voting will prevent a Tory majority and instant, hard Brexit. Then we may have to deal with the problem of a Corbyn government kept in power by all of the rest of the parties (except Farage’s) working together to bring about a people’s vote on a choice between a less bad deal than Johnson’s and remaining in the EU as we are. E.g., if Labour helps Lib Dem in North Cornwall and LD helps Lab in Canterbury, two sensible MPs will be elected who can work with others to ensure that Brexit will either not happen or will be as soft as possible. In the last nine days of the campaign, let’s get real, conciliate potential allies and oppose our real enemies – the Tory-Brexit Axis!
“Yusuf’s analysis is worrying…..”
Yep. I’d be interested to know the type of constituency he’ll be voting in.
If he were in mine, the curious thing would be that my Labour vote ( yes I’m putting my Lexit sympathies aside) would be helping the Remain cause by increasing the likelihood of defeating the incumbent Tory, whereas his vote would, at best, help the LibDems recover their deposit and finish higher the Greens and a single Independent.
A few points on tactical voting to counter some of the disinformation floating around.
Where support for a third placed Labour candidate is above 20% it is difficult shift, but it can be done. Tactical voting only unwinds when it is clear that Labour is going to win by a landslide, as in 1997. There was still tactical voting in that election, but to a much lesser degree than in the previous three elections. Liberal Democrats still got elected because the loss of tactical Labour votes was counterbalanced by Tory switchers. At this election, where it is clear that Labour will not win by a landslide, there is no reason to believe that tactical voting will fail to any significant degree.
A few points on constituency polls.
I recall in 1979 a poll in Berwick-upon-Tweed that showed that Alan Beith was going to lose. Alan Beith won that election. Then there was the Portsmouth South by-election. As I recall, every opinion poll showed Mike Hancock coming third. Mike Hancock won that election. All opinion polls, favourable or unfavourable, should be read with extreme caution.
Now, if I were running Lib Dem HQ at this election, I would be sending a couple of minibuses filled with student volunteers down to St Ives for the week.
theakes 2nd Dec ’19 – 9:23am
Sadly we are sliding very close to our overall performance in the last two general elections. Friday 13th may be a sad day indeed, opening up all sorts of difficult questions.
Are you extrapolating a trend from a handful of polls?
Not statistically cogent. There probably is no trend.
It’s far too early to write off our prospects. We are in the mid-teens in the latest poll. And there are decent reports from a number of marginals.
There’s been panic because of an outlier Survation poll, which put us on 11%. Again, this is not an intelligent response to polling. it’s worth mentioning that Survation gave us 12% on the eve of the Euros. (We got 20%.)
I have constantly argued on here against Revoke and the whole Remain Alliance strategy, but I do think panic and defeatism should be avoided.
Thank goodness Hugh didn’t go out campaigning dressed as Jeremy Thorpe – although I think it has been his best role to date.
For the last 2 Weeks we have been Polling around 13%, nearly double the 7.5% we got in 2017.
We may well not get any more Seats but that is virtually impossible to predict.
If we get 13%, we will gain a few seats. NMS.
We’d also expect to lose one or two. Brecon and Radnor we will almost certainly lose through the Remain Alliance strategy, which has persuaded all Leavers there – some with liberal instincts and former supporters to vote against us.
When the election is over, we do need to morph back into being a liberal party for all voters, not just Remainers.
@Chris Moore
The leaflet from B&R I saw on electionleaflets.org didn’t mention Brexit at all. Which seemed like an odd tactic!
I am off to St Ives on Friday, and hopefully many other members have been travelling to lend a hand there. Andrew George is certainly one of our ex-MPs who I very much want to see back in Parliament and at the heart of our central action.
Good luck, Katharine. Wishing you and Andrew every success.
I met a man going to St Ives. Nice bloke, but a bit of a polygamist.