Labour have retained the post of Police and Crime Commissioner, following the resignation of Shaun Wright, with 50.02% of first preferences ahead of UKIP on 31.66% with a turnout of 14%. The Liberal Democrats did not stand a candidate.
The campaign was dominated by the issue of the child sexual exploitation scandal in Rotherham, with UKIP accused of crassly exploiting the issue for their own political ends, and Labour accused of being responsible for the authorities that failed those children. Both accusations have merit, though in my book failing to protect 1600 children is worse than crass politicking. I’m not suggesting that Labour’s policy was to fail these children, but any virtual one-party state is likely to fail its people and needs to be voted out.
The decision of local Liberal Democrats not to stand a candidate is an unusual one, notwithstanding the discredited nature of the post and the fact that we obviously weren’t going to win. It was a little strange to be knocking on doors talking about next May’s elections during a by-election campaign. Very few voters brought it up though.
Then there was the question of how to vote in an election where none of the candidates inspire much confidence. Some Liberal Democrats spoke of spoilt ballot papers. Nick Clegg said he wouldn’t vote.
There is a logic to not voting when you are seeking the put the final nail in the coffin of a discredited post that will inevitably attract a low turnout. However I believe you should always vote, and always vote for the best candidate irrespective of how bad they are. Given Labour’s grotesque failures in Rotherham – and to be clear I’m not saying that Labour believes in abusing children, but I do think that the buck has to stop somewhere – that couldn’t be the Labour candidate. So it had to be the Conservative. Ouch.
The pain didn’t stop there because I also had a second preference. As a supporter of STV it would be inconsistent for me not to use it, giving it to the least worst of the remaining candidates. Discounting the English Democrat, this gave me a choice of Labour or UKIP. I knew the UKIP candidate and I always thought him a decent bloke before he joined UKIP.
However if in order to punish Labour for their failures of the past I had to impose a UKIP police commissioner on South Yorkshire in the future, that would surely be replacing failure with greater failure and injustice with greater injustice. A deontologist version of myself might have thought otherwise, but as a good consequentialist, my second preference had to go to Labour. Double ouch.
Unpleasant civic duty done, I feel I need to do penance. Suggestions welcome.
* Joe Otten was the candidate for Sheffield Heeley in June 2017 and Doncaster North in December 2019 and is a councillor in Sheffield.
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41 Comments
Could’ve saved yourself the pain and spoilt your ballot 😛
I know the pain. I voted in the recent Wed Mids PCC By-Election. My first preference was clearly for the LibDem candidate, but given we had the option of two – and I find it more worrying to not put my cross than to do so – I put my second pencil mark for the Labour candidate. I’ve had better days.
Problem with the PCC’s is they cover too large an area to have any genuine relationship with their voters. Euro MP’s have the same problem.
Smaller scale locally elected Sheriffs would be a much better idea.
Odd headline. Hanging on is not a phrase you associate with a party achieving over 50% of the vote, a very rare occurrence in elections.
Obviously, given there are no candidates to split the left vote, and multiple candidates on the right, Labour were always going to do well. And I suppose the question is now answered with respect to how much threat UKIP pose to Labour in the North of England.
What really needs explaining though is why the Lib Dems didn’t put up a candidate? Did not doing so boost Labour? Was that the plan as an anti-UKIP strategy? What does the result in Sheffield mean for Nick Clegg’s chances next year?
Remember, g, the Sheffield figures are based on 5.5 consituencies, 3.5 of which are safe Labour (though UKIP topped the poll in 0.5 in May, they don’t appear to be targetting it), and one of which would fall to Lib Dems on a small swing. Labour are claiming a Sheffield Hallam figure, based on, presumably, their own box counts, of the 3 or 4% of the electorate that voted in person (postal votes were counted citywide). But without a Lib Dem candidate that means even less than the little it appears to mean.
Most of South Yorkshire is one-party state and 50%+ Labour is common. Labour took 51.35% of first preferences in 2012, and have clearly lost ground but been flattered by the absence of a Lib Dem.
Why didn’t we stand? Short version: it would not have achieved very much.
So what was the Tory vote, coz I’m sort of interested in seeing how far it collapsed to UKIP.
Joe Otten, most of what you say is fair comment. However,
Why didn’t we stand? Short version: it would not have achieved very much.
If this is the real reason, then how many candidates will your party stand in 2015? Most Westminster seats are not remotely achievable for you. Will you be only standing in existing constituencies and a few potential close calls where there is a possibility, even if remote, of winning?
Also, if as you suggest, the Labour vote is flattered by Lib Dem voters, then are you not out of step with your vote as you preferred the Tory candidate?
The crucial point is that Labour gained this great victory on organisation, not Politics. An astonishing 80% of the votes cast were Postal votes. Nothing wrong with that but Postal Voting does give a big advantage to Parties with a tradition of organisation, its hard to build up the neccesary database at short notice.
This result & the Scottish troubles have distracted most Politicos from the sudden dissapearance of the Labour lead over the last few weeks, the last 9 British Polls have 1 Tory lead, 2 Labour leads & 6 ties.
Ouch indeed!
You’re more man than me Joe – I think I would have spoiled my ballot, or even stayed at home!
Joe Otten
Well done for voting and not following the pusillanimous example of our so-called leader. He never appears in by-elections, does not vote when he has a vote, sits in denial at the top of a party that yesterday failed to put up a single candidate anywhere in any of the by-elections covered in the ALDC report.
One might reasonably ask- “What party? What leader?”.
In terms of yesterday’s voting our party simply did not exist.
Is it any wonder that we have dropped to new depths in today’s national opinion polls?
According to Sky News one opinion poll has us on 4%.
In Scotland it is predicted that we will get just one MP in May.
And he will probably be the MP for Orkney and Shetland – so not really in Scotland at all.
Most of our MPs — who could have saved themselves when they had the chance of easing out Clegg after the Euro disaster earlier this year failed to grasp the nettle — they are now presumeably digging out their CVs and making discrete enquiries about employment outside of parliament.
I admire people like you Joe, who are soldiering on as PPCs in the worst pre-election November for Liberals since the 1950s.
Let’s be honest, with no Lib Dems standing in local elections or in the S Yorkshire PCC election, Nick has destroyed this once proud party. He should resign now and let us get on with saving what we can without his dead weight around our neck.
This has been the worst week thatI can erecall in electoral politics for the Liberals, Lib Dems or whatever we call ourselves. Simply because we have not been able to contest any of the 6 vacancies. In so many areas of the country we have or are ceasing to exist. Jo Grimmond must be turning in his grave. With the greatest respect to everyone I just do not know how we can get out of this situation, given the status quo? Does anyone out there have a notion.
As an 18 year old in Northern Ireland who was soon to leave for University in England and had already settled on the Liberal Party as his party of choice “across the water”, I was faced with a similar situation when casting my first ever vote – which were in our local council elections – which are by STV.
After carefully studying the extensive literature I voted 1 for the redoubtable Eamonn Melaugh – one of the early leaders of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association. Mr. Melaugh was standing for “The Worker’s Party”, a non-sectarian socialist party under the slogan “peace, democracy, class politics” on a platform of catholic and protestant workers uniting. I recall my mother being most alarmed that I might turn into a communist.
Joe, I have a suggestion for some penance: would you be so kind as to write an article about what to do about struggling at 6% in the polls? The LDV faithful appear to be dying to talk about it.
I warn against people thinking there is a single “silver bullet” that would see the party leap highly in the polls. However, a list of suggestions would be good.
Brave of you to reveal your non – Lib Dem voting preferences by the way.
‘The decision of local Liberal Democrats not to stand a candidate is an unusual one’
In a democracy in which we participate and try to gain voters’ attention, win hearts and minds even, it beggars belief that a party which claims to be both democratic and participatory, ‘decided’ not to stand someone and that the Leader made it known he would not vote.
An election is an election.
Deliberate non-participation seems to be an erring on the side of despair. At least let’s go down with a fight…
Incredulous.
It does sum up a great deal of these deprived Northern ex industrial areas that despite scandal Labour still reign supreme. I reckon Labour could kill our children in my area and would still get the vote.
Deprived northern area? Hallam is the wealthiest constituency outside of a handful in the south east. It has one of the highest proportions of graduates of any constituency.
I agree with Helen T – it beggars belief absolutely that a liberal didn’t stand. In the old days we used to stand in ‘hopeless’ elections to let liberals vote for us and to maintain contact.
I think it is even worse that Nick Clegg has let his non voting action be known – what if we all did that?
Are Labour and even the Tories really that indistinguishable from ukip? Really? Really, really??
Argh!
“The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.”
Pity the poor LibDem candidate in Rochester, the above poll was published today.
Yours sounds less painful Paul – sounds like your candidate was actually really good!
A little detail on that Rochester poll mentioned by malc: the sample size was 1012. The total number of people who said they intended to vote Lib Dem was 4. That is not a typo: four people in a sample of over one thousand stated that they intend to vote Lib Dem,. We are looking at a trouncing of historic proportions. Is Bus Pass Elvis standing?
Paul – There are 13 candidates declared so far in Rochester but no ‘Bus Pass Elvis’ as yet.
It’s generally accepted that there’s a margin of error on opinion polls of around + or – 3%.
Which means the 1% Survation are showing for the Lib. Dems. in Rochester could actually be 4% or -2%.
Every time one thinks the Party’s fortunes can sink no lower under Nick Clegg, they do.
And nobody at the top of the Party seems to have a clue what to do about it.
The best odds on the parties to win Rochester:
UKIP 1/11
Tories 10/1
Labour 80/1
Greens 500/1
Britain First 750/1
LibDems 1000/1
For me, the most telling observation about the Rochester & Strood byelection thus far is that Labour, if it is to form the next government, should be well out in front here at this stage in the Parliament, not languishing on 16%. This is a seat that Labour held between 1997 and 2005. Why do they look set to achieve a poor third place? How has the leading left-of-centre party in this country, the party of organised labour no less, allowed a working-class town to be used as a grudge match between two conservative parties? What does this say about the way in which Labour is being led?
In South Yorkshire, UKIP has discovered that there are limits to the ability of any force in British politics to penetrate Labour’s core vote. A lot of South Yorkshire voters may agree with UKIP on immigration, foreigners, women cleaning behind fridges, and the wonders of the 1950s, but they will continue voting Labour come what may. Working-class solidarity is extremely strong here. In the council estates and former Coal Board villages of South Yorkshire there cannot be too many City fat cat worshippers.
Contributors continue to wring their hands wondering what can be done to save the party. And well they might. But there is an answer. We have to concentrate all our efforts on that small number of seats where it is actually possible for Liberal Democrats to win. The Leader’s resignation would certainly help, because by his very presence he undermines anything positive that anyone tries to achieve for the party. But he is determined not to budge, and no-one high enough up seems willing to unhorse him. Bear in mind, though, that none of the other parties is deeply loved at the moment. Labour’s travails in Scotland and Rochester are clear evidence of that.
The bookies now have the LibDems at odds on – 5/6 – to get less than 25 seats at the next GE – I doubt that comes as a surprise to most people.
Paul Barker will be surprised; ostensibly, at any rate.
sesenco
Why is that the most ‘telling observation’ ?- personally I think the most telling observation is that the governing party has had an MP resign, join another party and hold on comfortably…for the second time
The other telling point is that the Tory part is being damaged by UKIP more than the others.
I think the point about Labour is not irrelevant but definitely not ‘the most telling’
The sad thing is as a LD is that these problems for Labour, which are real, have seen no improvement at all in the LD position – in fact your fortunes have fallen despite the under par performance from Labour
Perhaps that last one should be the ‘most telling point’ on this site – but then I forgot that most of the posters on here are still taking their Soma and ‘Labour should be doing better……..’ based on strange extrapolations is the mantra to follow
Stuart Moran is way off beam – and as long as people like him on Labour’s side are so far off beam and in denial then David Cameron still retains some kind of hope for next May.
A destructive resignation from a governing Party should normally split the ensuing by-election vote with the best-placed of the ‘continuing Party’ and the ‘splitter’ coming second at best. Any official opposition worth its salt in such a seat where they have previously won should be cruising to victory without blinking. But Labour’s latest cereal packet offer policies are seen as irrelevant to most voters – almost as irrelevant as Nick Clegg.
The problem with the Lib Dems is that they keep falling for the idea that there is a centre right consensus. The telling factors are that they losing votes to the Greens and Labour but still think they can tap in to a soft Tory vote, when the Tories are actually having their vote decimated by UKIP.
Tony dawson
I am not ‘on Labour’s side’ at all but am definitely more sympathetic than I am compare to the Tories
The problem that you have with your argument is that we are in a new game and all these theories using the past to predict the future are null and void
The presence of UKIP; trying to sell a simplistic populist message borrowing from left and right (although they are clearly a hard right party in reality) and exploiting the concerns of those least able to react to the consequences of globalisation, has led to an alternative to the Tories in the south
In seats like Rochester and Clacton UKIP may actually win. In others they may reduce the Tory vote enough to let Labour in. R&S is a seat with a sitting Tory candidate who has switched to UKIP. This was always going to be a straight fight between the two. It is actually a difficult on for Labour but for them a UKIP win would probably be the best outcome due to the detrimental affect on the Tories
Whoever wins in 2015 will be on a very, probably historically, low percentage of the vote which should lead to electoral reform as that will be unsustainable
Labour are still recovering from the years of Blairism and actually I think would need another electoral cycle to be a credible force again (remember the beating they took in 2010….)
In the end though the reality is that Labour are not the subject here – it is the LD who perhaps should be winning this seat. A defection from a weak and divided governing party, a weak opposition and a large level of discontent with the political classes. In the past you would have been close to winning, if not taking this seat……but here the party is sitting at 1% or less in the opinion poll.
Surely that is what should be preoccupying the people on this site?
Peter,
I am sure people at the top know what to do, but nobody wants to be seen as doing it. Perhaps they will gain encouragement if Rochester is a result in line with or worse than the SDP in Bootle, that led to that national party being wound up by David Owen.
@Helen Tedcastle
“it beggars belief that a party which claims to be both democratic and participatory, ‘decided’ not to stand someone and that the Leader made it known he would not vote.”
Quite. And given that Lib Dem MPs voted to introduce these costly and unwanted elections in the first place, I think another apology is in order.
theakes 1st Nov ’14 – 9:46am
“……. if Rochester is a result in line with or worse than the SDP in Bootle….”
theakes,
I think David Owen and his splinter SDP were more in touch with political reality today’s LD leadership.
We had our Bootle moment when Bus Pass Elvis was considered more trustworthy and credible than our leader, but Paddy and others who really ought to know better are throwing good money after bad by propping up the all-time loser.
my prediction for next GE is lab with most seats but fewer votes than tories–the electoral system is so biased against the conservatives. ALSO UKIP to win virtually nothing–even on 25% of the vote they will make only 2-6 gains, just as the alliance did in 1983. History has shown since 1923 that for us to get involved in supporting another party in parliament without PR is an electoral disaster. A big question is that in about 30 lib dem english seats lab is nowhere so what do our disgruntled supporters do–not vote tory for sure–do they wince & vote LD again? I hope so. The campaign will clearly reveal what the tories would have done on their own
once the campaign starts all 3 big parties will put the flame thrower through ukip’s letter box & they will be frazzled–in the north disgruntled lab voters will be reminded farage claims to be a thatcherite– as happened in the police commissioner by-election
i am old enough to remember my better connected friends being told by several of our mp’s that they expected to lose next time only for them to hold on– the concert is not over untilo the fat lady sings!! When the going gets tough the tough get going & the age of miracles is not past
theakes,
In ‘normal’ times we’d have been campaigning to win in by-elections like Rochester and Clacton. Now we’re polling one per cent. Even in my most pessimistic moments I didn’t think we’d sink so low. And the fact that we didn’t field a single candidate in any of the local by-elections across the UK last Thursday gives a good indication of the current state of our party in large swathes of the land.
If, as you suggest, people at the top of the party do know what to do but don’t want to be seen to be doing it, then I’m afraid they are to blame for the electoral debacle that is fast heading our way.
It’s often said that effective targetting and incumbency will save many of our Westminster seats (and that was certainly the case in the past when CR was in charge) but times have changed… we’re now in uncharted ‘multi-party’ territory where the rise of UKIP and the SNP, even the Greens, coupled with a strong anti-establishment, anti-Westminster public mood means that conventional political wisdoms no longer apply.
There are still effective campaigners in this party who know how to win in hard times, Keith House and the Eastleigh team for example, but are Nick Clegg and the bunker learning from them? No!
All we continue to get from H.Q. are ‘Aren’t Nick Clegg and Lib. Dems. in Coalition wonderful’ Press Releases and self-congratulatory artwork which no-one on the ground is using plus ‘Stronger Economy, Fairer Society’ slogans which have had such an impact on the voting public that we’re on 6 per cent in national polls, 3 or 4 per cent in Scotland and 1 per cent in Rochester.
It’s just so damn depressing but far from winding-up the party as David Owen did with the SDP, genuine liberals must stay and fight for what we believe in and ensure there is still a liberal party to re-build from the grass-roots up once next May is over and NC departs for a nice job in the City, Brussels, some foreign embassy or the American lecture circuit.
Rant over. I’m off to deliver some Focus…
malcolm blount
Those poor, poor Tories with this nasty, unfair electoral system!
I do not think that it is the Tories who are the most unfairly treated by the system -do you? And anyway they had the chance to change it a bit, and I don’t remember them being that keen.
They are also the party the most vehemently against any change away from FPTP anyway.
Finally, your actual premise that they are ‘unfairly’ treated is not based on fact either. We do not have a system based upon votes cast countrywide and one of the main reasons is differential turnout. Poor areas (mainly Labour) are less likely to vote that the rich areas (Tory). Can’t say I have seen much evidence of the Government encouraging people in these types of areas to turnout – in fact the opposite
stuart moran
I don’t think malcolm blount was suggesting we should be weeping for the Tories; but the bias of the system as between Labour and Conservatives (the two beneficiaries of it) is an incontestable fact, which is why Labour are very likely to end up with most seats even in the fairly likely event that they get fewer votes than the Tories. And of course the Tories did attempt to do something to reduce the disparity in the current system, but the Lib Dems stopped them! Not that there was anything but Tory self-interest motivating the ‘equal seats’ law, but the principle was objectively just.
Just because we don’t like the Tories and don’t want them to do well doesn’t mean that it’s okay for the system to be biased against them (or more to the point, against their voters).
Malcolm Todd
They did try to do something that benefits them, ie looking at equalising seats on registered voters not population whilst trying at the same to ensure that the registration process became more based against those who live in transient accommodation or multi-person households. The US Republicans have used this type of chicanery for years – and the Tories are good pupils
The British system is based on votes in seats and not votes overall – it has ever been thus and the electoral commission is mandated to look at this and try to get the best balance; basing it on local factors etc. The attempt by the Tories was to reduce the flexibility of the boundary commission (who had cross party support) and not involve the main opposition in the process. Labour has an advantage because inner city seats tend to be smaller on average and there is also the turnout balance. The study done on this makes it quite clear that the latter is as important as the former.
The Tories tried to rearrange the deckchairs but have no interest in making the system fairer for that significant percentage of people who feel disenfranchised by FPTP!
Then again seeing the Tories approach defended on here does not surprise me anymore
Malccolm.
It is not highly likely that the Tories will get more votes than Labour. This is in fact spin from the Tories and their press. With one or two exceptions Labour has polled ahead of the Tories for about 3 years. This is before anyone factors in UKIP. The Tories are simply not as popular as some Lib Dems have convinced themselves they are. Some of this is also driven by wishful thinking because it offers hope for the continuation of the coalition and avoids a very obvious leadership issue. My guess is that Clegg will pretty much aim the 2015 campaign along those lines and alienate a few more wavering voters.
Peter Chegwyn 1st Nov ’14 – 2:29pm
“There are still effective campaigners in this party who know how to win in hard times, Keith House and the Eastleigh team for example, but are Nick Clegg and the bunker learning from them? No!
All we continue to get from H.Q. are ‘Aren’t Nick Clegg and Lib. Dems. in Coalition wonderful’ Press Releases and self-congratulatory artwork which no-one on the ground is using plus ‘Stronger Economy, Fairer Society’ slogans which have had such an impact on the voting public that we’re on 6 per cent in national polls, 3 or 4 per cent in Scotland and 1 per cent in Rochester.
It’s just so damn depressing but far from winding-up the party as David Owen did with the SDP, genuine liberals must stay and fight for what we believe in and ensure there is still a liberal party to re-build from the grass-roots up once next May is over and NC departs for a nice job in the City, Brussels, some foreign embassy or the American lecture circuit.’
Peter, I agree. The minor issue though is the danger of our wonderful electoral system placing us in a balance of power position again and Clegg et al holding on. This would, more than likely, be a terminal blow to us.
I sincerely hope we don’t hold the balance of power, that sufficient traditional community-based centre-left Lib Dems remain and, crucially, we do not make such a disastrous choice of leader next time.
If this all comes to pass, we might just (and only just?) be able to start to recover from the multitude of body blows landed on our party by the Clegg-Laws-Browne coupists.
@theakes 31st Oct ’14 – 6:04pm
“This has been the worst week that I can recall in electoral politics for the Liberals, Lib Dems …. In so many areas of the country we have or are ceasing to exist. Jo Grimond must be turning in his grave. With the greatest respect to everyone I just do not know how we can get out of this situation, given the status quo? Does anyone out there have a notion.”
Theakes, given that Clegg and his inner group have decided to fight on and that the parliamentary party are unwilling to challenge him, I believe one of the best things we can do is rest the manifesto from Laws and Clegg. Their entire approach and attempt at repositioning the party on the centre-right has failed and is thoroughly discredited with the membership and voters. I have no idea if this can be done constitutionally(?) but if not, the MP’s must force having a much more say on the manifesto … if only for reasons of enlightened self interest.
If NC won’t leave the captain’s cabin, we at least secure the bridge and engine room. As someone has previously said, “it does not follow that because the captain should go down with the ship that the ship has to go down with the captain.””
Given our predicament a shabby compromise might be:
1) that Clegg leads us into the election BUT agrees to step down immediately afterwards
2) that we fight the election on a manifesto representing mainstream centre-left Liberal Democracy.
3) that the Federal Executive and Parliamentarians agree the make up of an emergency negotiating committee in the event of a national crisis requiring the participation of our party in a post-GE coalition and
4) that excluding such a crisis, the Liberal Democrats will not participate in any formal coalition after the next election.
Hopefully this would deal with some of the areas potentially preventing the Liberal Democrats even surviving as a political force leading up to and following the 2015 General Election.