It’s become a cliche for journalists writing about the contest to succeed George Bush that this is the longest Presidential race in history. Some of the politicians aspiring to win their party’s candidacy for the November general election have been fighting, literally, for years. As they seek the support of delegates in selection meetings across the 50 states, the 2008 hopefuls are held to a tighter and earlier calendar than ever before. States have begun competing to move their contests forward, all hoping to increase their national influence. This is the first article in our LDVUSA series – covering the American contest – and will hopefully be a bit of an introduction for those who’ve not followed a presidential race before.

In two days, we’ll have the first real vote of the race. I say vote – but the fascinating thing about the caucuses in Iowa is the fact that they’re not votes in any traditional sense. The selection meetings, held in each county in small halls or people’s homes, are very much live action events. To begin with, you have to arrive at the venue exactly between 6.30pm and 7pm. Any later, and you can’t participate. People then actually stand in a corner to support a particular candidate; it’s a very public affair. There’s no secret ballots, and no postal voting. If you don’t make it on time, you don’t get a voice. Here’s Joe Trippi (Howard Dean’s 2004 manager and a consultant to John Edwards this time) describing the first caucus he witnessed, when working for Ted Kennedy’s insurgent challenge to Jimmy Carter:

The night of my first caucus, in January 1980, I went to Jimmy Hogan’s house at 6.30pm, and watched his neighbours pull up in their pickup trucks and American sedans. Jimmy’s living room was packed. When it came time to call for the vote, the two sides began moving to opposite corners of the room, an old flickering chandalier demarking the line between them. I watched the people move to their corners, doing the math in my head. It was close; a few votes either way could turn it. And just as they were about to start counting this seventeen-year-old girl – Jimmy’s daughter, or maybe his niece, I can’t remember – began a slow determined walk across the room.

In Iowa, if you’re going to turn eighteen by the time of the general election, you can vote in the caucus. I watched, stunned, as this teenaged girl marched across the room, leaving the Carter supporters to go over to the Kennedy side. As she reached the chandelier, I started thinking my God, if we could win in Jimmy’s house —

“Young lady,” Jimmy’s voice boomed across the room. “You take one more step and you’re grounded for the rest of your life.” I don’t know if she had any ballet training, but at that moment she performed a perfect pirouette under the chandelier, turned and walked right back over to the Carter side of the room.

The nature of the Iowa caucus makes it more unpredictable than any of the ‘primaries’ used in most other states, which are more traditional votes. In the Hawkeye state, a winning campaign will have had to offer child care or snow-shovelling to get its supporters to the event in time to vote for their man or woman. The leading three Democrats seem to have the most professional ‘get out the vote’ operations. A lot could hinge on whether Iowans fancy going out that evening. It seems to have become common wisdom that a low turnout would aid former North Carolina senator John Edwards, whose disciplined and committed supporters turned out for him in 2004. Back then, he exceeded expectations of him in Iowa with a strong second-placing to eventual nominee John Kerry. The momentum from Iowa helped Edwards secure good results later on, and made him Kerry’s pick as the Democrats’ Vice-Presidential candidate. Conversely, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama are hoping to convince first-time caucus-goers, particularly older women and student respectively, to buck the trend and attend.

For all the eccentricities and oddities of the system, the caucus is likely to have a key role in determining this year’s Republican and Democrat nominees. As well as ‘free media’ in the press coverage of their victory, the successful candidate will be able to attract cash — vital for the insurgent campaigns that have thrown what resources they have at Iowa and the early primaries. They will be banking on turning early successes into fundraising support that can let them be competitive in the 20 state primaries on February 5th (dubbed ‘Super Tuesday’). For the former – the Grand Old Party – the caucus is set to change the dynamics of the campaign. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looked like he had Iowa sewn up a few months ago, having piled his establishment-bankrolled cash into the state. But then December saw a surge for Mike Huckabee – the Arkansas Governor previously known only for shedding 100 pounds and transforming his look from John Goodman to Kevin Spacey. Now, winning in Iowa will be seen as a genuine achievement by Romney (rather than a coronation) and give him genuine momentum in the media. Huckabee probably needs to win Iowa – or at least run Romney very close – to remain a viable candidate. He doesn’t have the money or the infrastructure to fight the later states seriously – although his Christian evangelical supporters are keen to see the social conservative triumph. They’re suspicious of Romney’s recent conversion to anti-abortion and know the front-runner isn’t one of them on such issues.

Who is that Republican front-runner? As an added twist to the contest in Iowa, Rudy Giuliani, the 9/11 Mayor of New York, isn’t competing seriously there — he’s relying on unrivalled name recognition and a late state strategy to sweep the majority of delegates voting on February 5th (“Super Tuesday”). Time will tell if this plan is as foolish as is suggested by the campaign of John McCain, the 71-year-old Vietnam vet and Arizona Senator who had been considered a shoe-in for the nomination as recently as 2006. Then the contest began and the straight-talking, independent-minded McCain bombed as he ran a by-the-book establishment campaign; he was also probably hurt for advocating the troop surge in Iraq and an immigration bill that wasn’t just based on xenophobic bigotry.

Talking of xenophobic bigotry, Mitt Romney has been taking shots at his opponents with claims they’re soft on illegal immigration. Not only has he acquired a reputation for exaggerating his own record, but he’s also gone for McCain and Huckabee in attack ads that are negative even by American standards. (See here for Huckabee’s bizarre reaction — making and then pseudo-trashing his own attack ad! McCain’s response is more decisive.) It’s easy to see why Romney is going for Huckabee, who is fighting him for a win in Iowa. But the attack on McCain, whose once-dead campaign seems to have risen at the eleventh-hour, is more strategic. The next primary is in New Hampshire, which McCain took to everyone’s astonishment when he ran in 2000, only to be ultimately beaten by George W. Bush’s dirty tricks. McCain’s position is rebounding there at the cost of Romney, who was for years Governor of next-door Massachusetts. McCain can’t win in Iowa, but he might exceed expectations. His people are now talking up Huckabee, as they think a Romney defeat in Iowa would help them win New Hampshire. It’s a bit like a game of dominoes. We’ll have to see if Guilliani is right in thinking he can win by concentrating only on later states voting in February – his non-campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire means he’s not judged by the results there. Iowa could, however, be the Tombstone of Fred Thompson’s hopes. The actor hoped to do a Reagan, but seems to be 2008’s Howard Dean — early promise but no success winning delegates. The other candidate for Dean’s mantle – for different reasonss – is scholarly Libertarian academic Ron Paul. Like Dean’s 2004 campaign, Paul is attracting a huge following of bloggers and online fans, dubbed ‘netroots‘. Not only do they independently organise to flood sites with support for their man, but they’ve hired a blimp – yes, a blimp – and coordinated their online giving to amass the biggest-ever one-day donation to a political campaign. More on him in a future article.

On the Democrat side, things are much clearer, but just as hotly-contested. There are three candidates seriously hoping to win the nomination and all are fighting seriously in Iowa. Hillary Clinton obviously has unprecedented name recognition all over America for a non-incumbent presidential candidate. But critics suggest she can’t win the support of floating voters when she takes on the Republicans – the big promise of Illinois Senator Barack Obama. She stepped up her operation in Iowa quite recently, having previously put emphasis elsewhere. The support of former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack can’t hurt, though; he pulled out of the race early last year and endorsed her. John Edwards, as mentioned before, has been focusing his campaign – the poorest of the three by some way – on Iowa. The media now see him surging back into contention, although polls in the past few days suggest it’s basically a three-way tie. Even with a win in Iowa, it isn’t clear if Edwards can muster the firepower to take on Clinton and Obama in the later contests.

Barrack Obama probably needs to win Iowa – or rather, he needs Hillary not to win it – if he’s to keep a chance of stopping her. As far as commentators dare question the invincibility and inevitability of Clinton’s candidacy, Obama is the only one given airtime as a serious opponent. If he doesn’t do well in the early states, it seems unlikely he can catch her.

The Presidential primaries seem a strange beast, and I’ll confess that the mixture of negative campaigning and the power of money over principled debate doesn’t leave a good taste in the mouth. But it is fascinating. Iowans head to the caucuses on 3rd January. LDVUSA will have occasional updates on the race in America then and in the months beyond. The essential digest for anyone watching the US race is Mike Smithson’s Political Betting site.

If you’d like to contribute to LDVUSA – or with articles on any topic covered by Lib Dem Voice – please send your piece to me at [email protected].