We know that if the UK were in the European Union, GDP would now be £120bn higher, and tax revenues £40bn higher every year. We know that the UK is the only major European economy not to have returned to its pre-pandemic size. And polling shows us that there is a growing majority view that Brexit was a mistake which has delivered negligible benefits and has done substantial damage to Britain. Yet the Party’s leadership at Federal level still does not seem keen to explain these things to voters, nor to offer leadership to the large number of people across Britain for whom becoming part of the EU again is a political and economic priority.
Grassroots members, fortunately, see things differently. On Saturday, the Scottish LibDem conference in Dundee considered a motion calling for the party to re-commit itself to re-joining the EU. Conference unanimously supported the motion, which also called on the UK government to develop a roadmap towards re-joining the EU and initially re-joining the Single Market and Customs Union. Speaker after speaker stressed internationalism as a fundamental thread of Liberalism, and the personal, cultural, and economic gains that would accrue if the UK could work its way back to full membership of the European Union. There were calls for MPs and MSPs to mount a communications campaign explaining the benefits of membership, and for activists and party members to support this.
The motion ended with a call for Liberal Democrats to put campaigning for our European future at the heart of our approach. Gratifyingly, Scottish LibDem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton gave a speech on the same day in which he committed himself wholeheartedly to a European future and stressed the importance of internationalism to his Liberalism.
This was inspiring but, on the previous day, conference had listened to a speech from Ed Davey which failed to mention joining either the Single Market, the Customs Union, or the EU itself. It is disappointing that our federal leader was so far removed from the mood of the conference, and that he does not use his position more to stress our internationalist credentials. As public opinion moves against Brexit, there is a large and growing body of voters who want to reverse the damage done over the last decade, and enter into enthusiastic membership of the European Union.
That body of opinion needs a leader in the House of Commons. It will not find leadership from Sir Keir Starmer, whose spinelessness on this issue knows no bounds and after voting in 2016 to remain in the EU, cannot bring himself to tell the obvious truth that Britain would be much better off in the EU. It will obviously not find leadership from the Tories, who have let mendacious populists push them into severing so many of our links with the EU. Pro-European voters will look to the LibDems to push their case in parliament. It is up to LibDems to accept leadership of this these voters. Let us ensure that they are not disappointed in us.
* Nigel Lindsay is a former Liberal councillor in Aberdeen and a longtime activist in the party, but considers himself an internationalist first and foremost.
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20 Comments
If the campaign to Rejoin the EU in Scotland cannot be made for the UK as a whole, it will become a campaign for Scottish independence. Indeed this is already substantially so.
“We know that if the UK were in the European Union, GDP would now be £120bn higher, and tax revenues £40bn higher every year.”
Do we? How?
“We know that the UK is the only major European economy not to have returned to its pre-pandemic size.”
Again we can ask the same question. However, if you Google GDP UK, you’ll see that GDP for 2021 was $3.131 trillion. GDP for 2019 was $2.857 trillion.
It is true that the FT and other sources make claims to the contrary. However, the basis for these claims relies on some very unsound practices. The usual one is a comparison of the last quarter of 2019 with a later quarter cherry picked to produce a desired result. Unless we want to fool ourselves, this is not the way to interpret “noisy” data!
The problems for all western economies go back at least to the events of 2008, ie nothing to do with Brexit, as the ‘noisy’ Google graph referred to above shows. The correct way to interpret it is to apply some smoothing, or averaging, which takes out the meaningless noise, but this is only possible if the time scales on the graph are long enough.
We’ll need several more years of data to be able to come to any meaningful conclusions.
We know that if the UK were in the European Union, GDP would now be £120bn higher, and tax revenues £40bn higher every year.
A truly extraordinary piece of speculation.
In the real world, UK exports to the EU rebounded to record highs early last year…
‘UK trade: April 2022’:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/april2022
After being hit hard during the pandemic UK exports have recovered strongly…
‘UK food and drink exports hit record highs in 2022’ [6th. March 2023]:
https://www.fdiforum.net/mag/supply-chain/uk-food-and-drink-exports-hit-record-highs-in-2022/
‘Trade Secretary welcomes record year for services exports’ [February 2023]:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/business-secretary-welcomes-record-year-for-services-exports
Until last week I was very cautious bringing back brexit as an issue,especially in leave voting areas like here in Cornwall. But now with the love in between Sunak and Von der Leyden the direction of travel is a return to be alongside the EU. Therefore to stay ahead of this travel a return to some of the agencies and a defence pact are good ideas as a start.
Refreshing comments and news from my friend Nigel Lindsay, who, as always, is careful in his research and observations…..and…… predictable comments from the usual sources.
I hope Sir Ed and his advisers takes due note.
@john stevens
You are correct. I have no doubt that there will be a significant proportion of voters in Scotland who believe it is more important for Scotland to be part of the EU than part of the UK. (62% in Scotland voted to remain in the EU compared to 54% who voted to remain part of the UK) I bet there are Scottish Liberal Democrats who share this outlook and may be tempted to support Scottish independence if the alternative is to stay out of the EU by remaining in the UK.
As Alistair Carmichael pointed out, on LDV on 24 January 2021, a ‘route map’ back to the EU, can only be drawn if early steps are taken to re-establish links with the EU. Rejoining the Customs Union and the Single Market must be the medium term aims, but those will only be achieved, if the main UK Opposition Parties can agree. With SKS shilly-shallying on those Policy commitments, that is not going to happen anytime soon.
Alistair set out a far more realistic and practical first step to improving our institutional relationship with the EU – rejoining the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). As a Founding Member in 1960, we discovered our European identity and as ‘Free Traders’, UK Liberals stood fast by our history and ideals, by helping establish such a grouping. Yet many LD’s now seem to feel they can not support such a move back. From the comments Alistair received on LDV then, it clearly baffled him – and it continues to bewilder me!
Come on LD’s, read our history, see what benefits rejoining EFTA can bring – and realise it can be first step in a four stage return to the EU:-
1) EFTA Membership
2) The Customs Union (more likely to get wider Party support than -)
3) The Single Market
4) Full EU Membership again
Nigel, great piece. Our membership of the EU is more than a numbers game. It is a fundamental belief. In Hitchhiking to India in 1962 I wrote of two momentous situations. First, being mobbed by Iranian youth furious with Britain’s ousting of elected Mohammad Mosaddegh, thanks to our Imperial beliefs and financial benefits. Secondly, on returning to Germany to be told that their ‘Chancellor Konrad Adenauer loved De Gaulle’. At that moment I knew the UK should help build the European Community.
We know that the UK is the only major European economy not to have returned to its pre-pandemic size.
That’s not true either.
‘The IMF believes that Spain will recover the pre-Covid level in 2024, after a “weak” growth in the coming quarters’ [November 2022]:
https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/spain-economy/the-imf-believes-that-spain-will-recover-the-pre-covid-level-in-2024-after-a-weak-growth-in-the-coming-quarters/103616/
German GDP for Q4 2022 has also been revised down to its pre-pandemic level…
‘Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 4th quarter of 2022’ [February 2023]:
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/02/PE23_070_811.html
Julian Jessop:
https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1629129863683530754
Mel Borthwaite 15th Mar ’23 – 6:20pm:
I have no doubt that there will be a significant proportion of voters in Scotland who believe it is more important for Scotland to be part of the EU than part of the UK. (62% in Scotland voted to remain in the EU compared to 54% who voted to remain part of the UK)
Due to the higher turnout (84.6% compared to 67% in The EU Referendum), 20% more Scots voted for Scotland to remain in the UK (2,001,926) than voted for the UK to remain in the EU (1,661,191).
For the BBC’s assessment of the economic impact of what John Major calls the ‘colossal mistake’ of Brexit, see
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450882
I thought we were supposed to be the most ‘European’ of all the UK parties so why is our leader still not shouting about this?
The strength and weakness of independence cause is that it joins people from across political spectrum. A strength because it means it can withstand usual levels of pressure from papers on the left or right seen week-to-week in politics and a weakness because if that pressure breaks through, then natural disagreement can cause whole thing to come tumbling down.
While Scottish people currently would back returning to the EU at much greater level than those across UK as a whole, I don’t think this is sole reason why Lib Dems should be more interested in independence movement as possible option. The independence movement could lost a Nicola Sturgeon and gain a Kate Forbes to take it in very different direction.
David Green’s article though, 11:30 on 15/03/23, which says current voting system in England leads to “results are not so much undemocratic as downright obscene” is more of a reason.
The two articles together, plus recognition that neither main party in the UK has any interest in changing voting system or getting closer to the EU without at least significant delay + smoke and mirrors so that it can be hidden from “red wall”, is a reason to at least put it on table as possible options. We all agree close working relationships strengthen nations, but the UK had close relationship with the EU while still being independent so that sort of relationship is possible.
Despite this, despite thinking it should be a genuine option on the table with genuine discussion behind it, I remain thus far unconvinced.
David,
Sadly, as we all know, Ed made a unilateral decision very early in his leadership saying that whilst the Lib Dems were “very pro-European” and he wanted to see the closest possible relationship with the EU following Brexit, we were “not a rejoin party.” Since then he rarely mentions our pro-Europeanness with the result that now the lies and full full awfulness of the Brexit deal are clear for all to see (even those who are totally pro-Brexit) the general public have almost totally forgotten what we supposedly stand for on Europe – our post Brexit Membership surge has been allowed to disappear and all the money it brought has been spent.
Sadly, we seem to get leaders who think that, having won a leadership election, they have the absolute right to lead the party in whatever tactical direction they choose – irrespective as to whether it was never mentioned in hustings, whether the party support it, or whether it is in the party’s long term strategic interest. Jo chose Revoke and a rush to a quick General Election, Nick chose “Showing coalition works” and clinging on to power until the party collapsed, Ed has chosen “Don’t upset the Brexiteers”.
@David Evans “Since then [Ed Davey] rarely mentions our pro-Europeanness with the result that now the lies and full full awfulness of the Brexit deal are clear for all to see”
Given the “not a rejoin party” position that he has taken, It’s very difficult for him – or the party – to say much about “full awfulness of the Brexit deal” since, when asked how to fix things, the only two options would appear to be saying, “We’ve changed our mind, and we are a party of rejoin” or “We spent six years telling you that Brexit was the end of the world, but we’ve changed our mind, and it turns out we know how to make it work.” Perhaps, as Abraham Lincoln put it, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt!” 🙁
Thanks to everyone who has commented. David Evans is surely correct that saying that we are not a rejoin party was a massive tactical blunder. Who but us can speak for the majority who now regard Brexit as a mistake? Neil makes a salient point in saying that rejoining cannot be instantaneous. The motion passed at the Scottish Conference called on the government to set out a road map towards rejoining. Certainly becoming part of the Customs Union and Single Market would be essential and welcome steps along the way. And Jeff, whoever you are, I am confident in my figures though I accept there may be a parallel Brexity universe where facts are different – maybe the one that generated the nonsense that went on the big red bus!
Nigel Lindsay 16th Mar ’23 – 2:28pm
And Jeff, whoever you are, I am confident in my figures though I accept there may be a parallel Brexity universe where facts are different…
Then cite sources as I have done: ONS, HMRC, ONS, IMF, and Destatis (Federal Statistical Office of Germany). Authoritative sources, not activist-academics with an agenda or the BBC.
£120bn is about 5.5% of UK GDP. Do you really think that if the UK had remained in the EU we would have grown twice as fast as Germany since 2016? Seriously?
Is Spain not a “major European economy”?
@ Nigel,
Although Jeff and I are on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, and disagree about much more than we do agree on, I do have to say he’s quite right about referencing any arguments from verifiable sources. It’s really quite lame to simply claim confidence with nothing to support it.
Maybe I’ve misunderstood but aren’t Lib Dems supposed to favour evidence based, rather that faith based policies?
Peter (Watson),
Indeed it would have been better for Ed to have “remained silent” However, better still would have been to look at Boris Johnson (or indeed anyone else in the Post Brexit Conservative Party) and ask one’s self “Is this man an arrogant bluffer or is he someone who can deliver complex trade deals from a position of total weakness?”
It really isn’t rocket science.
As an aside, the Thornhill report identified “We need to repair the rift that has occurred over several years that has led many of our activists to feel things are ‘done to us’ by a central HQ that doesn’t know what it’s doing.” Sadly ‘feel’ isn’t the right word, but ‘know’ and it usually isn’t ‘Central HQ’ but ‘the leader’. Ed’s action was simply done to us, presumably based on a few discussions within his closest advisors but little more – likewise Jo’s and Nick’s.
Of course in reality, it is effectively impossible to stop a leader with a sense of destiny from simply making a speech without any depth of consideration, which totally changes things at the drop of a hat, and once made the whole weight of the party machine swings behind it. The only recent leaders who didn’t do that were Charles and Tim, both of whom simply inspired activists to get on with stuff.
There were weaknesses in both approaches, but we all know which worked best.
I agree. Sooner or later the momentum to rejoin will be unstoppable. Better we be at the vanguard of this movement than join it as it becomes mainstream.