18 Comments

• Geoff Reid 10th Nov '17 - 8:19am

  Fareham – Penny Mordaunt’s back yard?

• theakes 10th Nov '17 - 11:38am

  YouGuv today Lib Dems 6%, down 2% that is a drop of 25%. How many MPs will that get us, there could well be a General eelection in March.

• David Becket 10th Nov '17 - 11:53am

  Theakes is right to point out our low position in the polls, yet on the other hand our local vote is on the rise again. This indicates that our national policy is going down like a lead balloon, but locally we are not seen as toxic. Look at the comments in the You Gov report and our major policy platform on Brexit does not fit with the general view. We should not abandon our support for the EU, but we need to put a lot more emphasis on our vision for Britain, in or out of the EU.
  There are so many issues to be addressed, the Government is in chaos and Labour offering 1950’s socialism. There is an opportunity here, and we are missing it, an open door which our party seems incapable of going through.

• Kevin Hawkins 10th Nov '17 - 11:54am

  The Fareham gain was from UKIP – another nail in their coffin. Since the General Election there have been over 100 by-elections (excluding town and parish elections)and the score for UKIP is Gained none, Held none, Lost 5, average vote 2.5%. The score for Lib Dems is Gained 8, Held 5, Lost 1, average vote 15.3%. Three years ago UKIP were averaging over 20% in local elections, now their vote share is less than half of the Greens.

• hoochachook 10th Nov '17 - 12:03pm

  The EU tracking polls covering whether leaving the EU is good for the UK and whether T May is doing a good job show a significant shift against the leave camp. I fully expect this trend to continue over the ensuing months which will see the gap become wider still. We need to retain our current policy, not least because it is the right one for the UK.

• Barry Long 10th Nov '17 - 12:08pm

  Love your comments Theakes. All changes for that poll are within the margin of error.

• Sesenco 10th Nov '17 - 12:32pm

  I note that Stubbington, though a former Lib Dem ward, has never been a reliable Lib Dem ward. Thursday seems to have produced the highest ever Lib Dem percentage share in Stubbington.

  The Camden and Wandsworth results appear to indicate a modest rise in the Lib Dem base vote in London. These are wards that have been worked in years gone by, but neither has ever been held.

  What do the following have in common: Vince Cable, Ed Davey, Wera Hobhouse, Norman Lamb, Stephen Lloyd, Layla Moran, Jo Swinson? Answer: at the 2017 General Election they all got a share of the vote not far short of what was achieved in those seats pre-Coalition. Why did they succeed in doing that, while almost everyone else failed so miserably? Our strategists need to be finding the answer to that question, and fast.

• paul barker 10th Nov '17 - 1:22pm

  Our current recovery is following the pattern of previous ones, starting with Local votes. We are now back to where we were in April, our last “Peak”, our Vote share having risen about 10% in 4 Months. Obviously our Vote cant go on rising that fast but we can hope for a very good result in May, provided there is no General Election before then.
  Our National Polling averages around 7% & I wouldnt expect any shift till the Spring.
  Our strategy has to be to keep banging on about Brexit & to slowly build up our Core Vote.

• Lorenzo Cherin 10th Nov '17 - 1:28pm

  David Becket

  I am several threads and topics , saying exactly what you are here, it astounds me that some think sauce is better than the main thing in the sauce, not the other way round.

  Brexit is not the issue when our country has public services creaking, whatever anyone says, the money is there, in the economy and in the clasp of governments, the fact that this mess is getting us no bounce, with the worst regime in decades, should tell us the people and policies need an urgent and obvious revamp or reinvention.

  For mostly very good and understandable reasons most people think Brexit a yawn.

  We had a chance with Tim, but it has gone.

  The only way forward is to re orientate this whole party, marketing and messaging coming together based on common sense, yes, shared notions of what people yearn for , some radicalism , and a lot of moderation of an extreme and worrying fragmented situation.

  Nobody trusts Labour’sleft on the economy but they shall win anyway if this slide carries on. This is a government that we should show is all the worse than the coalition for the lack of this party.

  Those who loathed the coalition we cannot win , those who see we were as a party a break on much that would have been worse can see it now, apologies for what was wrong, arguments to the contrary not anymore worth dwelling on, accepted, yes, the leadership made mistakes. But please , anyone who cannot see this two plus years since have been a shambles is in denial or is really not in posession of facts.

  We need new personalities, that means the leadership needs to open up spokespeople to the party members, and accept advice thus too.

  The polls show us this is essential, no more coasting in a time of national , almost, crisis.

• Peter Watson 10th Nov '17 - 1:51pm

  @paul barker “Our strategy has to be to keep banging on about Brexit & to slowly build up our Core Vote.”
  But what will be that “Core Vote” if all you do is “keep banging on about Brexit”?
  And why should Brexit be an important factor when choosing a local councillor?

• paul holmes 10th Nov '17 - 2:34pm

  Playing to our supposed Core Vote by concentrating on Brexit is exactly why we are still at best flatlining in the Opinion Polls.

• Geoff Reid 10th Nov '17 - 3:16pm

  Peter Watson,
  Some local councillors bring to their work the same basic political instincts that feed our generous internationalism. Voters do not always recognise this but if the name of somebody representing their ward seems like an answer to the question “what does a Liberal Democrat look like?” It has a lot to do with it.

• paul barker 10th Nov '17 - 3:52pm

  The 2 things that make Brexit more than just another “Issue” are its potential to wreck The Economy & the fact, revealed in Polling that it lines up with all sorts of other, apparently unconnected things in Voters minds. The really classic example is opinions on Gay Sex where there is a huge difference between Leavers & Remainers. Dig below the surface & opinions on Brexit derive from a deep Cultural divide between Liberal & Anti-Liberal, Open & Closed if you prefer.
  Building up Local Votes is a good start to being seen as relevant again but its not going to help at the next General Election unless Liberal Voters have a clear image of our Values & why we are closer to them than our Rivals. In June, Liberal minded Voters split 3 ways & had no influence at all, we have to change that.

• David Evans 10th Nov '17 - 5:36pm

  Paul Barker, yet again you present the “We are recovering” fallacy. As I have pointed out to you repeatedly, and you have never contested, we always do better in local government by-elections than we do in annual elections each May, usually by something around 5%, sometimes more. Currently our local government performance indicates we are doing no more than flat lining, indeed, if anything we are still going downhill.

  In opinion polls since the GE, we have consistently polled between 5% & 8%, with three outliers one at 10% and two at 9%, none more recent than September. All in all nothing to support the current complacency that we are doing well, because in fact we have done nothing to change people’s opinion of us since the time of coalition.

  All you are doing is giving out the same as that from the centre, that nothing needs to change, and so we can simply put off the day when we have to face up to reality and do what we need to so we can save what little is left of our party, before it too late.

• nvelope2003 12th Nov '17 - 8:41pm

  David Evans: Spot on

• nvelope2003 12th Nov '17 - 8:48pm

  When a Liberal Democrat MP virtually says on Any Questions that while she believes in Free Speech we must not upset students by allowing them to hear opinions they might find offensive then the party no longer has any purpose.

• Tim Hill 14th Nov '17 - 8:00pm

  nvelope2003 – She didn’t say that…

• nvelope2003 14th Nov '17 - 8:51pm

  Tim Hill: That is your opinion. She did not use those words but I cannot see what else she could have meant. Either you can say what you like within the constraints of the law or you cannot. Inciting violence or racial hatred etc is illegal but I do not think advocating other forms of government is illegal. People must be allowed to make up their own minds after hearing different points of view. It is not for the Liberal Democrats or any other party to tell people what to believe.