As Iain Dale so nearly (but doesn’t quite) manages to bring himself to admit, Ming Campbell was on the media with his reaction to the general election news well ahead of David Cameron, the Liberal Democrat news release went out much more quickly than the Conservative one, and the Liberal Democrat website was updated promptly whilst – as I type – the Conservative website still doesn’t have the news or reaction.
Now, I’m off to eat some chocolate.
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24 Comments
Oh crumbs. Does this mean we’ve got Sir Ming for another two years? Now where did I leave that revolver . . .
Well done, Lib Dems. Strangely though, the BBC concentrated on Cameron’s views more than Ming’s.
But it is quite amusing that you are claiming victory against the Tories when a story on your own website showed that the Tories were the ones that won it.
As Stephan Tall said “A week ago, the decision looked a formality [calling a early poll]. Labour was riding high in the polls on the back of their ‘nobody mention the Blairs’ party conference, and a couple of polls suggesting double-digit leads over the Tories. Spool forward, and it’s all looking a lot less rosy, with a slew of polls indicating a narrowing of Labour’s lead.”
Now, why exact did the slew of polls indicating a narrowing of Labour’s lead happen. Obviously, it was Ming’s work. He’s did so well, the Tories squeezed the Lib Dem vote some more and closed the gap with Labour (hammering the rich, that’s the way to go). Nothing to do with Blackpool, IHT easing, and the “Look Mum, no autocue” speech.
Laurence: what do you mean by “we”? Does not compute.
Oh dear, does this mean we’ve got Laurence Boyce banging on about the same old thing for the next two years?
Hopefully not, if he finds that revolver and suddenly becomes quiet for good.
What do you mean by “we”? Does not compute.
We . . . us . . . you know . . . the Lib Dems! I’m a proper Lib Dem now. Been to my first local meeting. Met David Howarth and everything – very impressive chap. In the absence of an election, he has promised us some political debates which I’m greatly looking forward to. No, you’re stuck with me now!
Oh dear, does this mean we’ve got Laurence Boyce banging on about the same old thing for the next two years?
Ha ha!
Hopefully not, if he finds that revolver and suddenly becomes quiet for good.
Now who said I was going to use it on myself?
Good we got out first. Not so good the media are so easily ignoring us. Slowly, we seem to becoming ‘less important’. I think some phone calls from the party to the media are in order!
Yes, Ming was first on, but what he said was tired and predictable. Did you see his latest embarrassing performance on Question Time? Oh dear.
And now, I;ve been trying to find a mention of the LibDems’ latest poll rating in the Sunday Times. 11% isn’t it?
No doubt you’ll be covering that tomorrow. Or not.
It can’t be denied the poll rating means the party is in trouble. It goes rather deeper than party leader. When I heard Cameron’s speech, i could not but help think how much of it I would have liked Ming to have said. I fear we come accross as being a bit ideological, arrogant and left wing.
11%?
You don’t seem to be discussing it!
Oh dear, pleaaaaaase don’t sack Ming.
Rubbish, Sid. There is nothing wrong in having principles, even though the Tories then see us as “a bit ideological, arrogant and left wing”. Cameron is a total waste of space, with a superb publicity machine. And the Tory Conference was just a massive love-in, wasn’t it?
Sid,you mean the LibDem conference was a fiery hot debate with no consensus then?
If I am honest I really feel for Ming – he is as straight as a die, honourable and honest – and was one of the best ever Foreign Affairs spokesman ever – but (and I say this regretfully as I thought he would be great) he has shown that being the Party leader is not his metier – I am of curse referring to his ‘political’ side and not to him as a person, I think he would be someone I’d be proud to have as a ‘friend’.
BTW if you lot decide at some point to change leader – take my advice and DO NOT go for that pompous pr*t Huhne – now he would be a vote loser for you 😉
Iain – one slight problem with your “oh what a dreadful Question Time performance” line. Take off your blinkers and look at the audience reaction during the show. Surely a serious political commentator pays attention to what the reaction of people other than Tory activists is 🙂
There’s no question that the Conservatives are the main beneficiaries of this debacle, for at least three reasons. First off, the Conservatives would have lost the election had it been called. Secondly, the Conservatives have been saved from one of their stupidest policies, namely to hold a referendum on the EU treaty and then campaign for a no vote. Thirdly, Cameron has turned around a bad summer for them and emerged with greater stature. Things are not quite so good for the Lib Dems. With Cameron in the ascendancy, we (yes, we!) get squeezed. And of course we’re also stuck with Ming.
Are we, though?
Now that we’ve got a window as long as about a year and a half, we should be ejecting Ming right now and have a new leader by the new year.
Ming is not the problem, but if we think a leadership election would solve anything, then get it over quickly. The real problems are far more to do with too many ‘young men in a hurry’ rather than the reverse.
I understand that the party organisation has improved under Ming (it must have been dire before), but there is no question that Charles had a better media personality. Perhaps someone between the two would be really ‘CharMing’.
Sorry, that’s the best I can do after so many sleepless nights….
Cameron must be cursing all the Ashcroft money he has used up these past two weeks.
Gosh, I even had TWO Tory leaflets through my letterbox yesterday morning – the first since… the last General Election. Straight in the bin.
Cameron is rather like a motivational speaker at a pyramid selling convention. Loads of excitement for the first five minutes, but it is all forgotten in the morning.
It is becoming glaringly obvious that Cameron is a total utter phoney – a “mendacious creep”, in the words of a former colleague at Carlton TV. Everything from the covered-up bald patch to the rictus smile. (A question Josephine might be able to answer: does Cameron shave his chest?)
There is nothing to beat the long hard slog on the ground, somehing that will become clear when the votes are finally counted in two or three years time.
No-one has been “squeezed”. Squeezing only happens at elections, and there isn’t going to be an election for a good long while.
Is two party politics back – for now yes but not for long I wager.
Using an average of the five October polls the movement since the GE is Con+5,Lab+3,LD-10,Oth+2
The LDs have very clearly been squeezed by both Con & Lab
Lab I hope will now be in decline and I predict the more right wing the Tories get the and the more unpopular Gordon gets then the LDs will pick up the lions share of the Lab defections.
My prediction for next general (in 2010 I guess) Con 40%+7, Lab 30%-6, LD 20%-3, Oth 10%+2
Iain,
Did you watch Question Time? Ming did really well and showed some fight, which was great.
No, I think you’ll find that Ian Hislop did really well, while the politicians were just dreck.
Firstly, I have to take issue with Iain’s criticism of Ming as ‘tired and predictable’.
What a cliche! ‘Predictable’ is resolute and well-founded in a long-established practical and philosophic tradition. ‘Predictable’ is what is required in any good system of government – it gives stability to markets and individuals, enabling proper planning for the future by promoting certainty.
‘Predictable’ is a safe pair of hands. ‘Predictable’ does what it says on the label. ‘Predictable’ means people know what they are getting because there is a clearly identifiable platform.
‘Tired’ – on the other hand – is just the bored adjunct expressed by a person with a limited imagination and even more limited political vocabulary.
Secondly, I wish to express my increasing reservation about opinion polls.
I think it is ridiculous to assume the public hasn’t wised up by now to the way polling organisations and those who commission them routinely manipulate our views to stimulate their own political agendas and neither do I believe recent developments in sampling studies haven’t begun tending to favour expressions of certainty to the exclusion of greater nuance. It is in their use of statistics that pollsters have become the new fraudsters – lies, damn lies and all that.
Tim Bell might truly believe people behave in predictable ways, but not absolutely or all the time – that there is ‘nowt so queer as folk’ is a source of constant amazement and vitality which makes all our daily lives so refreshing.
The volatile nature of recent polls also reflect the weakening of the traditional parties ‘core’ support as politics becomes less tribal and more issue-based – simply, where people are prepared to change their minds it shows they are thinking more about who best reflects their views. And in all my experience, since liberalism encourages a rational-minded and open-minded adult approach to all the serious issues, growth of the ‘floating-voter’ has to favour equalised chances of support.
Thirdly, the only weakness Ming has is for his tendency to look a little rubbery on camera. As he grows into his role he is gaining confidence in his own ability to make the liberal case and to convince people by doing so.
Iain and all the ambitious eager young bucks should be warned about quickly-won friends and easy victories which don’t stand up against the scrutiny of well-entrenched evidentially-based foundations and genuine conviction.
Speed out of the traps is one thing. But the truth is that the Tories have completely and utterly eclipsed the LibDems. Perhaps the LibDem press office did put out a response to Brown’s concession earlier – but the thorough going lack of credibility suffered by the party is reflected in today’s news coverage. E.g. Brown has bottled it, the Tories have bounced back superbly and….errr….maybe the LibDems should think about ditching Ming. 11% in an opinion may be a rogue finding – but the general trend is on a downwards path. The whole point of getting rid of Kennedy was that an injection of professionalism was required. If that supposed professionalism – we keep hearng about how the internal structures and employees of the party are now enormously better than before – is really serious, we should be confident of securing well in excess of 22% and 63 seats at the next election. That looks deeply unlikely. There is no real reason to believe that the ongoing degradation in LibDem poll ratings will not persist. It’s genuinely tragic – but there is too much of response that this is part of the normal trend of things. It isn’t. In mid-term in the last parliament, the party scored up to 28% of the vote. We ended up with 22%. The last local elections – and by-elections – represent a relative failure. Ealing Southall was the sort of seat that would have been won between 2001 – 2005, probably with the Tories losing their deposit. The world has changed. The LibDems haven’t realised that yet, let alone adapated to it.
Lib Dems in local government appear increasingly willing to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt. Defections loom.
“Ealing Southall was the sort of seat that would have been won between 2001 – 2005, probably with the Tories losing their deposit.”
Total utter codswallop.