No doubt you were looking at your newspapers yesterday, and feeling not very happy about this poll in The Sunday Times:
YouGov poll reports 16% lead for Conservatives : Con 43% Lab 27% Lib Dems 16%
My reaction to this poll is “Whoopee!”
Now before you think the worst, no, I have not succumbed to the charms of David Cameron, nor will I contest the forthcoming local elections as a Conservative. No, I will be contesting the local elections as a Liberal Democrat because in several councils across the country that poll suggests we could well have another barnstormer of a local election (just as we did in 2004).
It is a well known fact that in local elections, the Liberal Democrats do very well indeed when compared to the national poll ratings, and because of the timings of past local elections it is possible to quantify just how well.
In 1997, the Lib Dems polled 18% in the general, but 25% in the county elections. In 2001, the Lib Dems rose 1% at the general election (19%) and in the county elections polled 25% again and in 2005, polled 23% in the general and a very impressive 28% in the counties. All of which suggests that on average the Lib Dems poll 6% better in local elections than general elections: by a similar degree the Conservatives poll 3% better, and Labour poll 10% worse, in local elections than general elections.
Therefore, if we take the average of the polls so far this month – Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 17% – and apply those average changes to it, we get a 2008 local election forecast of:
Con 43%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 23%
thus ensuring that Labour (the governing party) are consigned to their 4th successive set of local elections finishing in third place. And how does this help us Lib Dems you may well ask?
Manchester: Lab 61 councillors, Lib Dems 34 councillors. (If people want to vote anti-Labour, it’s no point voting Conservative, is it?)
Oxford: Lib Dems 19 councillors, Lab 17 councillors, Greens 8 councillors. (Which party is the best place to take overall control in Oxford? – it’s certainly not the Conservatives or Greens.)
Ceredigion: Plaid Cymru 16 councillors, Lib Dems 9 councillors, Lab 1 councillor. (Seeing as Labour and Plaid Cymru are essentially the government in Wales, why vote Plaid when that means you are backing the Welsh Assembly Government?)
So as you can see in loads of councils across the UK, the Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour, and the party best placed to gain control.
So have a good fuel up on Easter Eggs next weekend, so that on Wednesday, 26th March, onwards you can walk into your local returning officer’s office, hand over your nomination forms, and say to the electorate: “I’m a Liberal Democrat candidate, and we are the only party who can win control of this council!”
* Harry Hayfield is a Lib Dem activist from Ceredigion constituency and is a prospective community council candidate for the Henfynwy Community Council.
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18 Comments
I’d be a bit wary of predicting great things for the Lib Dems in council elections, seeing as the party is still failing to gain momentum in the media thanks to the infighting and confusion about the Lisbon Treaty.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
“and apply those average changes to it, we get a 2008 local election forecast of:
Con 43%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 23%”
The problem with this analysis is that our projected national vote share last year was 24%, the year before that 25% and in 2004 27%. Labour “finished” second in both 2006 and 07 on the Rallings & Thresher estimates (based on a larger sample than the BBC
However that is based on polls asking how people would vote tomorrow – and the election is definately not tomorrow. Furthermore performance in local by-elections does feel a bit better than it has done for a while (though that’s a seriously non-objective assessment!)
Nevertheless I’m sure that whatever happens the party will claim the results are the greatest victory for liberalism since 1906 🙂
Also don’t forget Sheffield and Warrington! :-p
intresting thought. it could be worse for teh lib dems from those who just dont vote clegg has not created the fizz that is required
does harry hayfield in ceredigion speak welsh or is he parachuted in from england like your MP for ceredigion?
I’m not going to strike the same tone as Mr. Roberts, above, but it’s worth pointing out that Plaid ARE very popular in Ceredigion, and are also well organised for the local fight. Their coalition with Labour may not hurt them that much. That said, the Ceredigion MP does speak Welsh, so it’s an odd innuendo for Plaid (or anyone else) to make…
“or is he parachuted in from england like your MP for ceredigion?”
Or say the holder of the world record for most tries by a forward
Hm, Mark Williams must have had one heck of a crash course in Welsh over the last couple of months then!
Paul Roberts’s comments are a rather harsh, but I’m a bit puzzled by your analysis of Ceredigion, Harry. You seem to bracket it with other councils where the Lib Dems are ‘the best placed to gain control’ but neglect to mention the independent group, who have 16 councillors and currently lead the authority with the Lib Dems as junior partners. Do you reckon you can make the 11 gains needed to take control?
Why aren’t you standing for the county council Harry?!
This is great; the real question then becomes how can this success be translated into building nationally to the point where people who experience Lib Dem administrations are happy to consider them as a national government…
Many people use Local Elections to show displeasure with the “bigger” political partys. I believe the Liberals especially in the North East have shown how poor they are, especially in Newcastle where several Councillors called themselves Parliamentary Spokespersons without being elected as MP’s. Just believe the Liberals equate to Pee Wee Herman whilst the others show a lot more strength.
In answer to the questions:
To Paul Roberts: I was born in Aberystwyth Hospital (Bronglais ward) and was adopted by my grandparents in 1974 (a few months after my birth). Although I cannot speak Welsh (as I am not a natural linguist), no one can accuse me of not being Welsh. I submit as proof of this a Channel 5 News Report from September 18th 1997 which shows me holding the Welsh Flag at the head of a Pro Assembly March in Machynlleth, Powys
To Meurig: I have filled in all the relevant forms and my appliaction is with the local Lib Dems.
But the Liberal Party appears to be collapsing in Norwich, where more than half the remaining councillors are deserting the sinking ship (6 out of 11, where there were 30 a few years back) .
Sadly, the shenanigans over the Lib Dem attitude to the EU treaty referendum vote in the Commons will cost the Lib Dems a lot of votes, particularly from sympathetic Tories. The 1st of May could be an awkward night for Clegg.
@ Gooey, and Letters from a Tory – have you actually been out talking to people about these elections? *No one* has mentioned Lisbon, it’s not something that people are interested in. Oh, actually I tell a lie. Two people have mentioned Lisbon to our canvassers, with overblown statements about how they’ll never vote Lib Dem “again” and how we should “be very afraid”.
They’re both recorded as Conservatives or antis all the way back to the early 1990s.
Anon wrote: “But the Liberal Party appears to be collapsing in Norwich, where more than half the remaining councillors are deserting the sinking ship (6 out of 11, where there were 30 a few years back) .”
Yes, that is because Michael Meadowcroft has joined the Liberal Democrats.
“Two people have mentioned Lisbon to our canvassers, with overblown statements about how they’ll never vote Lib Dem “again” and how we should “be very afraid”.”
If only all the people who say they’ll never vote for us “again” had actually voted for us we’d have had some massive election wins in the past 🙂
Entirely my point. The people who mention this aren’t ever going to be Liberal Democrat voters in a million years, they just think it’s what you say when you’re trying to upset a politician!