Quote from the 2005 General Election Manifesto:
We will extend this fair voting system (STV) to all local elections in Britain, and to the House of Commons …”
And, indeed, as a long-term aim that’s a very sensible move – but as we know both in Wales and Scotland you cannot suddenly change from one situation to another without first making progress.
Welsh Liberals (even as far back as 1910) advocated devolution for Wales and, thanks to the stages in devolution (the first Welsh Secretary of State in the 1960s and the Welsh Grand Committee), when devolution was offered in 1997 Wales accepted it. Similarily for our long-term aim of STV, we should recognise that the Alternative Vote is progress towards that aim. As such, when the Prime Minister speaks in the Commons today I shall be looking online for sites that are looking for supporters of AV to sign up to support a YES vote in a referendum.
So how would AV help the Liberal Democrats in a general election? Well, it just so happens that in May 2009, a poll was published asking questions that could build up a profile of second votes. Using that poll, here’s an alternative version of the swingometer showing what would happen in a general election on swings from 10% to Lab to 10% to Con under the existing first-past-the-post, and under the Alterantive Vote.
(Data calculated using UK-Elect on transfers calculated from ComRes poll of May 2009. The first section is FPTP, the second section is AV and the third section is the change between FPTP and AV by party.)