Tim Farron is undoubtedly in a more secure position as leader of the Liberal Democrats than Cameron or Corbyn are as leaders of their parties.
Cameron
If Britain vote to leave Europe on 23 June, the public think Cameron should resign as Prime Minister by a margin of 48:41.
I agree with that. By analogy, no self-respecting Chief Executive could remain in post if his shareholders rejected his advice on such a big issue.
Whichever way the referendum goes, it takes 50 Tory MPs to trigger a leadership ballot. 150 have come out against the PM’s position of the EU. It seems very likely that the significant faction who have never come to terms with Cameron’s project to realign his party towards the centre would make their move and there are enough wannabe leaders, not just Boris Johnson, to encourage them.
Calling a leadership election is not the same as winning one. I don’t know enough about the Kremlinology of the Conservative Party to predict an outcome but as an outsider watching Tory politicians take chucks out of each other each week it seems to me at least a 50:50 chance that Cameron will not be Tory leader by the end of the year.
Betfect gives 7/2 that Cameron will go this year, so punters are more confident that he is staying.
The Guardian has surveyed what is likely to happen in the event of different referendum results.
Corbyn
The newspaper articles saying that Corbyn will face a leadership challenge this summer are too numerous to count. In one recent piece the Huffington Post said:
In a race against time for both sides, supporters of the Labour leader want to make it harder to get rid of Mr Corbyn and are planning to tighten up the rules to ensure a sitting leader is automatically included on any ballot paper after a successful challenge.
Current rules state that where there is no vacancy, “nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference”, as long as they are supported by 20% of MPs and MEPs – in effect 50 names.
However, even if he is challenged, Corbyn appears likely to be re-elected by party members according to yougov research. That presupposes the he gets the support of enough MPs to appear on the ballot. Last year he relied on gifted support from MPs who merely though he would add spice to the debate and didn’t want him to win.
If he is forced off the ballot we will surely see the creation of a new Momentum Party of his supporters in Parliament and outside? If he is re-elected as Labour leader after the social democrat / New Labour wing of the party challenge him that group, which might be 100 MPs or more, that group seriously has to consider its future. Do they stay in Labour and cruise to a terrible defeat in 2020 with a leader they tried to oust? Or do they have the integrity to form and stand as an independent party from Corbynite Labour?
Tim Farron
We can be confident that Tim Farron will lead the Liberal Democrats into the New Year and I due course into General Election 2020. We cannot be so confident with regards to either of the other party leaders.
If Cameron is forced out or if Corbyn is not forced out, Liberal Democrats should make a strong claim to speak for the great majority of British voters who will not like to see the Tories taken to the right or Labour lurch to the left.
* Antony Hook was #2 on the South East European list in 2014, is the English Party's representative on the Federal Executive and produces this sites EU Referendum Roundup.
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15 Comments
However, Tim is not seen by the electorate as PM material, unlike Nick Clegg before him. So if the Libdem’s really want to be taken seriously in 2020 they will need to elect a new leader…
I’m sorry but Nick Clegg was never PM material. He could hardly manage party leader without consigning us to the rubbish tip of history.
Cameron is a goner no matter what. He’s due to stand down before the next election anyway and as with Blair the knowledge that he is effectively a stand in until then makes him a ineffective and a bit of a lame duck. Corbyn’s problem is the Right Wing of labour can’t accept defeat and as a result there are too many conniving old grandees like Peter Mandelson running to the press and TV every five minutes. If I was a labour member, who actually voted overwhelmingly for Corbyn, I would be pretty peeved with the Blairite old guard and would want to see them gone.
Farron is a decent man doing a decent job.
The idea that Corbyn is under any threat is a Labour Centrist fantasy, he has the support of around two thirds of the members – a proportion that is likely to rise as more Corbynites join & moderates leave. There are indeed persistent rumours that there will be some sort of attempted coup after The Referendum, early August perhaps but Labour Centrists have a long history of making threats then chickening out. Any serious attempt would amount to a roundabout form of split & one that would leave The PLP majority looking pretty shabby.
I like Tim Farron as a man and MP, but his first year as leader has sadly lacked any leadership. The “minority cause militants” seem to have taken over the Lib Dems and Farron appears to be stood on the sidelines watching on. He has displayed no leadership and if the party is wiped out in the upcoming assembly elections he will come under pressure. He could well end up going before Cameron, although the lack of any realistic alternative does strengthen his position.
Tim is ok for a party of eight M.P.s and to think of it as anything more than that in the near future is a self delusion. Malc touches a nerve when he points to the preoccupation with minority causes instead of main stream concerns. Too many self regarding big fish in a small pond. It will continue to be a small pond unless it concerns itself less with self indulgence and more with major political issues (which Bernie Sanders is beginning to articulate in the US).
Corbin is 67 and is a transient figure on age grounds alone. Dan Jarvis the one to watch. The Tories are fragile and Johnson has many enemies. He was filleted at the Treasury select committee.
It doesnt really matter what I think of Tim as I quit over the Party’s policy of bombing Syria. However I dont see much cause to celebrate Cameron leaving. He is likely to be replaced by someone far less moderate and that person is likely to remain PM as Corbyn is totally ineffective and Labour are shambolic.
Who said “The Prime Minister is doing the work of two men, Laurel and Hardy”
Of course, the whole article is written from the rather English perspective and there are two other sizable parties at Westminster, SNP and DUP. Their overall leaders – Nicola Sturgeon and Arlene Foster sit in their own parliaments. Nicola Sturgeon has been in office as leader longer than Tim Farron.
Likewise their leaders at Westminster, Angus Robertson and Nigel Dodds, have both been in post for 8 years or so.
So the answer to the question is no! Third longest, assuming Cameron and Corbyn don’t make it throughout 2016.
As for Roland’s comment, the Liberal Democrats and the Liberals before them were hardly ever seen as a short-term potential government. They weren’t in 2010 or 2015. So nothing has changed. We’re taken seriously or not as an INFLUENCE on the government. Nick Clegg was seen as rather more credible as a PM because he was better-known than Tim is currently. That will change. Nick Clegg was unknown to the general public until the 2010 election debates. Probably the only Liberal or Liberal Democrat leader since the 1930s to be well-known on taking up the position was David Steel in 1976.
As for the rest, the polls probably reflect that most people think the EU vote will go REMAIN. If Cameron wins that vote he will have deep trouble with his rightwingers, but he’s both a fighter (for himself if for nothing else) and a clever tactician. Credible challengers would hesitate to challenge him because the assassin hardly ever wins the mantle and Cameron has said he won’t serve beyond 2020 – so they’ll wait if they can. If the EU vote goes LEAVE, I agree, Cameron’s position is untenable – but then what? A very few Tory moderate rebels could lose the government its majority. I suspect we’d have an early election with most MPs of all parties voting to meet the 2/3 requirement in the Act.
Corbyn will stay until at least he experiences a major electoral disaster and, as someone desperate to get rid of this government, I regret that his disaster will be the 2020 election.
But I don’t think the SNP is ready to choose another fish-themed-surnamed leader and Nicola Sturgeon preceded Tim Farron as a leader, so the premise isn’t quite right.
The crucial thing to me is to forget for the time being about the “kremlinology” of how individual politicians are likely to be positioned and get on with winning the referendum. As usual the naysayers about the EU seem to have the best tunes despite the threadbare arguments they are putting forward. As David Raw says above, Boris Johnson was “filleted” at the Treasury Select Committee. Indeed I have never seen such a pathetic performance by anyone questioned in this way, incapable of giving any worthwhile evidence and reduced to repetitively burbling that leaving the EU would result in our getting back rapidly and without any economic shock whatsoever to all that we have now from the single market but without any financial contribution or freedom of movement of labour. But how many voters have seen this? The constant hammering of twisted negative allegations on the front pages of the Daily Mail etc have far more credence to many people. The “remain” camp must get its act together and put across the risk that working people across the country face in the years of turmoil that Brexit would unquestionably unleash. Let them call that scare-mongering if they like.
“doing the work of two men, Laurel and Hardy?” Ronnie Corbett
Denis Loretto. Re Johnson. “How many voters have seen this ?”
That doesn’t really matter, Denis. In a way it’s better that it doesn’t. If the Tories pick him it convinced me that the shine will soon wear off if he gets prolonged interrogation – as he did when he was interviewed by Eddie Mair a while ago. It also convinced me he has some serious enemies in the Tory party.
malc
I agree with your point but I’m not sure any of the 8 remaining MPs were the personalities to lead in the way required to stop the slide into identity politics at a time more people are noticing this trend and disliking it.
The issue of a gutting at the polls is that it leaves a limited choice and simultaneously raises specific challenges. I’m not sure there was leader available who could do what was needed.
Sure, Tim may survive longer than Cameron or Corbyn. The question is what he can achieve.