Three days, to coin a phrase, is a long time in today’s Tik Tok politics. This time last week wounded and bandaged Donald Trump was basking in what the New York Times called his “mythical status.” He appeared unbeatable. Liberal democrats around the world were in despair.
Then 81-year-old stumbling, crumbling President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he was dropping out of the White House race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
She in turn surprised pundits with a rousing Milwaukee speech and 40,000 Americans registered to vote in one day this week – a 700 percent increase on the daily average. What looked like a Republican walk-over has been transformed in an instant to a to-close-to-call fight to the finish.
Up until this week the age factor had been the major political issue, especially after Biden’s painful to watch performance in his debate with Trump. But at 78 Trump is no spring chicken and is often guilty of stumbling over thoughts and words. The dementia shoe is now on the Republican foot.
Age, however, will only be one of several issues in the roughly 100 days before the election. More than ever, the contest is now between the American left and right. There is no doubt about Trump’s far-right credentials. The Republican hierarchy tried to push him as a unity candidate at the convention. His acceptance speech at the party convention started along those lines. But he quickly lapsed into his rambling, mean-spirited right-wing attack on opponents real and imagined.
One of the reasons Harris’ 2020 bid for the White House foundered so quickly is that she was perceived as a far-left candidate. If she is going to be successful in 2024 she has to shed that image and capture the centre ground of American politics.
Not helping her are the problems on America’s southern border. Immigration is a major political issue and early on his administration President Biden handed Harris the poisoned chalice of managing America’s southern border. She failed. In 2023 a record 2.3 million people crossed from Mexico into Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California.
But against Kamala’s failure is Donald Trump’s over-reactive proposal to use the military to round up and deport up to 20 million immigrants.
To date Trump’s 34 felony convictions and three other indictments appear to have been more of a help than a political hindrance as he has successfully portrayed himself as a martyr. A bullet to the ear also helped. But if Trump agrees to meet Kamala in debate – as he should – than the Vice President’s experience as a prosecutor could negate his successes in the legal arena.
Abortion is an issue working in Kamala Harris’s favour. She has been the point person in the Biden Administration arguing in favour of abortion and that appears to be a popular position. Two years after The Supreme Court repealed Roe V. Wade a Pew Research poll reported that 63 percent of Americans say abortion should be legal. A poll taken before the repeal of Roe v. Wade revealed that 25 percent of American women had had an abortion.
Trump has back-pedalled from his former strict anti-abortion days to argue that the decision should be left to the individual states. But running mate J.D. Vance is less circumspect and has said he wants “minimum national standards” for abortion. Perhaps more interesting is Vance’s assertions that women should remain in abusive relationships and that childless couples have relinquished their stake in America’s future.
Neither of these comments will endear the Trump/Vance ticket to women voters. And, of course, Kamala Harris is a woman. She has no biological children although she does have two step children. Harris also has a Black father and South Asian mother. Her ethnicity and gender is both a positive and negative.
For a start, half of Americans are women and more women than men – 70 percent – are registered to vote. This compares to 66 percent for men. On the race issue, there are 45 million people who identify as African-Americans and 5.4 million who claim a South Asian ethnicity.
Set against that is a recognised misogynistic streak among some African-American men and a strong conservative element in the 62.5 million strong Hispanic community. Finally, let’s not forget the 186 million Whites who increasingly fear that they are losing their cultural identity to the people whom Trump wants to deport.
Sitting alongside America’s culture and gender wars is the economy. Since 2020 average wages for US workers have risen 25.7 percent compared to an inflation increase of 20.9 percent. Unfortunately for the Biden Administration, Republicans have persuaded American voters to focus more on the inflation than the growth figure. A key task for Harris will be shifting the economic perceptions.
Foreign policy plays a bigger role in this election than most past presidential contests. The Trump/Vance ticket is opposed to helping Ukraine in its fight against Ukraine. This position does not appear to be in line with the thinking of most American voters, 55 percent of them support military aid to Ukraine. The same number – 55 percent – disapprove of Israeli actions in Gaza while the Republican hierarchy went out of its way to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress.
On one foreign policy issue Americans are united. 81 percent have an unfavourable view of China. But they are divided on what to do about it. 71 percent of Republicans support Trump’s proposal of 100 percent tariffs on most Chinese goods and 70 percent support the Biden Administration’s proposal of 10-25 percent tariffs.
American presidential elections are famous for starting almost as soon as the previous one ended. In that respect Trump has a definite advantage. But generally speaking the 24/7 high octane campaign does not start until the day after Labour Day which this year is September 5. In 2016 Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 12 points. Harris is currently two points behind Trump.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".
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11 Comments
“Set against that is a recognised misogynistic streak among African-American men” – can we avoid statements such as this? It is not qualified and it doesn’t even say “amongst some”. At best it is a poorly phrased statement. At worst it is an appalling racial slur.
It is truly astonishing to a rational mind that anyone can fall for the guff that Trump spews out. The only satistactory explanation that I have seen is that given by the cult expert Steven Hassan in Malignant Narcissism: Stereotypical Characteristics of a Cult Leader
If this can happen in America, it can happen anywhere.
As Tom Arms writes “In 2016 Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 12 points. Three weeks out from election day in 2016, the access Hollywood tape was released showing Trump making extremely crude remarks about women. It seemed his campaign was over and then 11 days out the FBI announced they were reopening the case into :Hilary Clinton’s emails.
A lot can happen between now and election day, but the prospect of having an irredeemably corrupt cult leader back in the Whitehouse with a vendetta against the US Civil Service is deeply depressing. Let’s hope, for all our sakes, the US Democrats get the campaign right this time and we see the first female American president elected in November.
This sort of guff Joe :
“Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course. Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers.”
Trump at the UN …This was bitterly criticised by the EU & beyond – and laughed at by German diplomats ..
As for Harris – she had dire results in her presidential bid – and tasked with securing the southern border – she’s spectacularly failed ..
Trouble is, looking at Democrat cities the record isn’t great – rampant homelessness & huge opioid epidemic blight many . As with many western democracies – globalization has hollowed out m
too many communities & those that are affected most will probably not look at Harris for any support or understanding of the issues they face…
Trump says there will be no more elections after the next one!!!!!!
Civil war?
The Biden / Harris team worked cross party with Republicans in the Senate to try to reduce the immigration problem. This was not approved of by Trump who wanted to use the border in his election campaign, so his party in the House stopped the cross party bill. I am glad to see that Kamala Harris is not frightened of telling the truth about the fact that there is a criminal, failed ex president who is a clear liar who will do anything for power.
I feel rather encouraged. Harris is much better in front of the cameras than I recall and Trump always loses the popular vote by many millions. I expect Harris to outdo Trump in any TV debate, though it’ll be interesting to see how she deals with her record on immigration. Let’s hope that come November the votes fall the right way in the swing states and the electoral college.
Trump is quoted speaking to Christians, there will be no voting after this election. Looks like he is going to go for autocratic rule. Kamala will be either President or in Prison.
These really are desperate times.
@Mark. I apologise unreservedly for my comment about Black African men. I should have qualified it by saying that Trump campaign people have been saying that that is part of their strategy.
@Theakes: More information about end of elections and US dictatorship. The comment about elections was made at an event hosted by Turning Point Action, an evangelical political pressure group. Trump did indeed urge evangelicals to get out and vote for him because they “will not have to vote again.” When Reuters asked the Trump campaign to clarify his comment they refused to do so.
As for the dictator jibe, Trump has since said he was joking. But shortly afterwards a historian said Trump could destroy American democracy and become a dictator. A spokesperson for the Trump campaign responded that the historian would be thrown in jail if Trump returned to the White House.
When I worked in the US in the 1980s/1990s, business advisors would often cite Dale Carnegies book”How to win friends and influnce people” as a bible for aspiring entreprenuers. Around this time of industrial decline, asset stripping and the rising power of Wall street financiers another classic became popular -Sun Tzus Art of War.
Donald Trump published a book “The Art of the Deal” in which he advised that those pursuing the American dream of great wealth need to be “vicious, arrogant, obnoxious and a little bit evil if they want to be winners.”
I used to regularly travel to Atlantic City on business, where Trump had built several Casinos on the back of State and City loans and junk bonds paying 15% interest initially without putting in much of his own money – an unsustainable business model over the long-term. The customers of these Casinos seemed to be predominatly welfare recipients bussed in from the Tri-state area to put their meagre social security allowances into the slot machines. When these businesses went bust it was the State and city authorities, bond investors and local contractors and suppliers left holding the bag with Trump having cashed out How Donald Trump Bankrupted His Atlantic City Casinos, but Still Earned Millions
His foray into politics has followed an even more destructive path. He has been calling for a televised military tribunal for Liz Cheney and the jailing of top elected officials, including President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris along with others. He has long suggested he would try to prosecute his political opponents (anyone that does not agree that the 2020 election was stolen) if he’s elected to a second term Trump amplifies posts calling for televised military tribunal for Liz Cheney
Thanks Tom
A couple of points don’t chime with what I’ve heard from reputable US commentators*:
– I don’t think Harris was seen as far left in 2020. Her record as a prosecutor was criticised by the left of the Democrat party “Kamala is a cop” etc
– She wasn’t given the job of “border tsar”; that’s the Republican (attack) line. Her role was a diplomatic one looking at push factors and she was successful in getting Mexico on board to help stop migrants from Central America getting to the US border. Numbers have fallen.
* I highly recommend “The Rest Is Politics USA” with Katty Kay & Anthony Scaramucci.