You can, famously, prove anything with statistics. But the figures for General Election expenditure, released by the Electoral Commission in December, raise some interesting questions for Lib Dem campaign managers.
It was an extraordinary election in many ways. The TV debates, Cleggmania,the economic crisis and the MPs expenses scandal. All of this perhaps made it a particularly difficult election for the party to manage. Marshalling scarce resources in an unpredictable environment is a tough challenge.
The Lib Dems were always going to be out-gunned on the national stage but did we allow ourselves to be out-gunned and out-manoeuvred locally too?
Looking at expenditure in the ‘long campaign period’, it is surprising that Lib Dems spent more than two thirds of the expense limit in only 37 seats. In those key contests the win return was strikingly low: there were five gains and eight ‘holds’ and eight notionally held seats were lost. The other seats were targets that were missed.
Adding in the short campaign the party spent more than two thirds of the aggregate limit in just 52 seats. Seventeen of them were won. Only 62 seats spent more than half of the aggregate limit allowed.
Seats with a surprisingly low spend in relation to the limit include some notable misses for the party: Oxford East (58% of the limit spent); Dunfermline (58%); Ashfield (53%); Chesterfield (51%); Hereford (65%) for example.
An interesting picture emerges when expenditure by other parties is added in. Looking at the 100 seats where Lib Dems spent the most seems to confirm the impression that Lib Dem campaign managers were generally making the right call about where to invest resources. But maybe questions should be asked about how much was spent on individual campaigns. Among the seats where Lib Dem candidates were outspent by their rivals are Durham, Hampstead and Kilburn, Harrogate, Hereford, Islington South and Oxford East. All of those would be on any list of key marginals from May.
There were 20 seats where the Lib Dem candidate finished less than 2,000 votes behind the winner. Across those seats the party ‘under-spent’ by around £205,000 against the legal limit. Less than the amount that was spent on flights for the leadership team as LDV reported in December.
For the first time since 1992 the party came out of an election feeling it had underperformed in terms of seats compared to its vote share. We seemed to finish on the wrong side of a swathe of very close results. In 2015 we likely face an even tougher contest. The party needs to ask tough questions about spending priorities, intelligence gathering and structures to ensure it gets the maximum return next time.
5 Comments
I assume you were looking at this?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/campaign-expenditure/uk-parliamentary-general-election-campaign-expenditure3
Yes, Geoff, sorry. I did ask LDV to add the hyper link in but something must have gone wrong.
Also this one which is Helen’s original LDV story on the figures when they were released:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/liberal-democrats-get-the-best-electoral-bang-for-campaign-buck-22290.html
While money is important, what it is spent on is more so. We are as capable as any party of spending a small fortune on literature which fails to (a) attract readers (b) maintain their interest so they read it and (c) convey a message which increases likelihood of Lib Dem voting. The ‘bang for buck’ issue should not be ignored in any serious analysis of what we did as a Party.
I see that in my constituency we were outspent by the Tories, but I really don’t think that another two or three leaflets would have made a difference to the outcome because people had given up reading them in the last week or two. I have a recollection of Pendle Liberals delivering a then unprecedented nine leaflets in support of Tony Greaves in February 1974 (and he still came third), but in today’s campaigns in marginal seats or by-elections that is modest. However, in my view the law of diminishing returns set in many years ago and we need a radical re-think of our campaigning strategies.
I agree that we need to rethink what and where we spend our money. I think we currently over spend and over produce literature for some seats when the extra leaflets probably don’t have much effect.