On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be broadly satisfied with our current performance. The latest poll I’ve seen (from ComRes in the Independent) puts us on 18% – so, despite a significant Tory revival, we have not been squeezed.
One might reasonably argue that we should have done better out of Labour’s current demise, but my suspicion is that things will tighten as the general election comes closer, and Nick Clegg – who impresses me more and more – gets the greater media attention he deserves.
But that’s a pretty passive approach. How could the party be more proactive in improving it’s position in the polls and in the forthcoming elections?
First and foremost we need to identify the problem. With opinion polls, the devil is always in the detail. Those who know me well know that I have a number of bees in my bonnet, the largest of which is that I constantly harp on about Propensity to Vote (PTV). The latest ComRes poll shows a somewhat unlikely 74% of Conservatives saying that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, as opposed to 58% of Labour supporters, and 50% of Liberal Democrat supporters.
Now you don’t have to be a mathematical genius to work this one out, do you? If 60% of our supporters felt ‘absolutely certain’ about voting we would pass our share at the last general election; and if we had the same PTV as the Tories, we would be the second party! Yes, there are ‘Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics’, but any experienced campaigner can feel this on the doorstep.
For me, then, our greatest task over the next two years is motivating our supporters to vote. How?
My suggestion is a NATIONAL Survey. Every year, we ask residents in our local council areas their opinions on local issues. Let’s organise a national survey of supporters, where we go out on the doorstep with a questionnaire from Nick asking, face-to-face, known probable supporters what the key issues are for them. Let’s target to ask AT LEAST 100,000 to make it one of the biggest ever national surveys of a political party’s supporters. This is an exercise that every constituency association could join.
The results of such a survey would give us the policy priorities of our potential supporters, as well as valuable information in the run up to a general election, and allow our parliamentary team to feel confident in putting forward Lib Dem policies. If we want to motivate more of the 50% of our supporters who currently plan to stay at home on polling day to come out, we need to understand their views and opinions; their priorities.
You can put my constituency down for £500, Nick.
* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat activist.
5 Comments
Good idea
You are obviously right about the importance of PTV but I find it disturbing (though sadly unsurprising) that, despite NuLabour’s disintegration, it still commands more support than the Lib Dems and even has keener voters as judged by PTV.
This is not new, but it shows what an immense way we still have to go to really challenge for power.
However, I don’t agree with your suggestion for a giant opinion poll because I don’t think that making a list – even a very long list – of people’s priorities get us anywhere.
Anyone who has not already done so should read Neil Stockley’s excellent post on the failings of policy lists as a way forward (he puts it far better than I could) and also the article by Lakoff and Brewer he references. The links are:
http://neilstockley.blogspot.com/2008/03/why-voters-dont-go-for-lists-of.html
http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/research/rockridge/why-voters-arent-motivated-by-a-laundry-list-of-positions-on-issues
Some interesting ideas.
Overall, I think the opinion poll picture is not as rosy as you suggest though. The latest poll from ComRes did put us on 18%, but the two most recent polls from Mori and Yougov put us on 16% and 15%. Overall, we’ve probably lost 5+% since the last election. This isn’t terrible for mid-term, and we might expect to see the numbers as Nick becomes more widely known and secures more coverage in a General Election campaign.
However, the real worry is the substantial ground gained by the Tories. Their present poll ratings are in the mid to high forties. This suggests a LibDem to Tory swing of about 10% since the 2005 election, which on a uniform national swing would mean any LibDem MP with a majority of less than 20% over the Tories falling to Cameron’s hordes. There are – of course – serious questions about whether the Conservatives’ present high ratings are remotely sustainable, but the “spot price” position isn’t good. Not because the LibDem numbers are so low, but because the Tory numbers are so high.
>On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be >broadly satisfied with our current >performance
This is dreadfully complacent. There is no garentee that Lib Dem support goes up just because the Partry gets greater publicity.
At least the Conservatives flatlining at 30-33% had the sense to say “how can we get out of this mess”. The Lib Dems ought to be doing the same. Labour is collapsing the Conservatives don’t deserve support but habit of going “oh we used to be at 3% in the polls, haven’t we done well!” seems to have overtaken much of the top of the party.
The Liberal could poll 15-18% back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, the party ought to be at least on 25-30%. The party can poll 5% more than it’s national rating in lcoal elections and 5% less in Euro-elections on the same day but this is accepted as a fact of life, not someting to be changed.
18% is not good enough, and if the party feels that it is, the first thing we have to ask is how much energy does it have?