Only one new poll being reported tonight … almost not worth mentioning. Oh, alright then, it does happen to show the Lib Dems in first place, so here goes:
-
YouGov in the Sun … CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LIB DEM 33%(+4)
-
Con 35%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 24%
What will happen next? Who know. Here’s Anthony’s take:
… on one hand the Lib Dems are likely to face a concerted attack from the other parties and hostile newspapers, on the other hand if they stay at this level there will be a snowballing effect of them being seen to be on a roll, the Lib Dem’s normal weaknesses of being seen as a wasted vote will be whittled away, and if the two main parties start focusing their fire upon the Lib Dems it may well backfire by making them seem negative and the Lib Dems as the real challenger.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
We do have a two-tier policing system but it is not what our homegrown racists think it is.
Lib Dems are reviewing policy and strategy says PoliticsHome
From Norman settlement to a civic square
Church Green video
Alex Macfie
William Wallace
Iain Donaldson
10 Comments
UK polling report is, of course, a 20-day window, so it won’t really show the recent upswing for another week or so.
Conservative Rhapsody
Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
Look up to the polls and see
I’m just a Tory (Tory)
I need no sympathy
Because I’m easy come, easy go
Ratings high, ratings low
Any way the polls blows
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me
Elections, just blown it all
I agreed to the debate
Such an obvious mistake
Mama, campaigning just begun
But now I’ve gone and thrown it all away
Tories, ooh
Didn’t mean to make you cry
If I’m not back again this time tomorrow
Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters
Too late, Cleggs time has come
Sends shivers down my spine
Body’s aching all the time
Goodbye, everybody
I’ve got to go
Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
Mama, oooooooh (Anyway the windblows)
I just want to cry
Sometimes wish I’d never took part at all
I see a little silhouetto of a man
Wiilaim Hague, Wiliam Hague, will you do the Fandango
Thunderbolt and lightning, very, very frightening me
(Galileo) Galileo (Galileo) Galileo, Galileo Figaro
Magnifico-o-o-o-o
I’m just a Tory boy nobody loves me
He’s just a Tory boy from a rich family
Spare him his life from this monstrosity
Easy come, easy go, will you vote for me?
Bismillah! No, we will not vote for you
Vote for me
Bismillah! We will not vote for you
Vote for me
Bismillah! We will not vote for you
Vote for me (Will not vote for you )
Vote for me (Will not vote for you) (Never, never, never, never)
Vote for me, o, o, o, o
No, no, no, no, no, no, no
(Oh mama mia, mama mia) Mama Mia, vote for me
Beelzebub has the devil put aside for me, for me, for me!
So you think you can stone me and spit in my eye
So you think you can love me and leave me to die
Oh, voters, can’t do this to me, voters
Just gotta get out, just gotta get right outta here
Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters
One ones really voting for me
Any way the wind blows…
To the tune “Golden Brown” by the Stranglers.
Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown, he’s not much fun
Wears me down, now that Blairs gone
Thought he was right
Turned in to a fright
Always a frown, with Gordon Brown
Every time, just like the last
Prom-mis-es, broken like glass,
He understands
Shifting like sands
Always a frown with Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown, made such a mess
Will it get worse, it’s hard to guess
Please go away
Don’t try to stay
Always a frown with Gordon Brown
(he let you down) he let you down (always a frown)
(always a frown) With Gordon Brown (with Gordon Brown)
(oh what a clown) Oh what a clown (always a frown)
(always a frown) With Gordon Brown (with Gordon Brown)
(always a frown) Always a frown (always a frown)
(always a frown) With Gordon Brown (with Gordon Brown)
Always a frown) Always a frown (Always a frown)
A poster on Mike Smithson’s site suggested an interesting analogy, by saying that the Lib Dems had “gone viral”.
It seems quite possible that opinion poll results showing the Lib Dems leading both the Tories and Labour will encourage further movement in the same direction. Yesterday’s YouGov poll was the first “mainstream” one to show this. Apparently an ICM poll is expected this evening. It’s interesting to note that in the pre-debate phase of the campaign, the average Lib Dem ratings produced by ICM were 2 points higher than those produced by YouGov; ICM ratings for the Tories were 2 points lower, and those for Labour were 1 point lower.
Part of this may be sampling error (there were only 3 ICM polls in that period, though there were 13 YouGov ones, so the YouGov sampling errors should have been averaged out), But, just for reference, if the differences were systematic, the “equivalent” ICM version of last night’s figures would be:
LD 35 CON 30 LAB 26
One can only speculate on what effect figures like that would have on the spread of the yellow virus.
“Gone viral” could well explain the buzz of interest. The great thing for the LDs is that we have always known that when people hear our policies they like them. Now more people than ever before have heard them, and are liking them. And what’s more, the old problem of “wont vote for them because they can win” is dissolving 🙂
Sorry to be senile but what was the result last time, so I can understand the swing? We need 13% in South Leicestershire. Any chance or should I go to a target like a good Liberal Democrat should?
FDP: Result last time in national vote share was Lab 36, Con 33, LD 22.
You should of course help in your nearest target seat, but if (and it’s a big if) this surge continues, we’re going to find that seats we thought weren’t in play may actually be.
In terms of swings, the last YouGov poll would indicate a Con-LD swing of 5% since 2005, and a Lab-LD swing of 10%.
On the other hand, if you interpreted it as the Tories staying at their 2005 level and 28% of the Labour vote transferring to the Lib Dems, the swing to the Lib Dems in Tory-held seats might be perhaps only half that, but the swing in Labour-held seats might be larger – perhaps as high as 15%. So I’d guess that for that reason alone UNS would be under-predicting Tory seats and over-predicting Labour seats.
Perhaps under-predicting Lib Dem seats too, as (without looking) I’d guess that quite significant numbers of Labour seats would be vulnerable to swings of between 10% and 15% to the Lib Dems.
“if the two main parties start focusing their fire upon the Lib Dems it may well backfire by making them seem negative and the Lib Dems as the real challenger.”
It’s not just about looking negative. The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about. It wasn’t the illiberal press and old party attacks that kept us down in the past, but the lack of attention from the media and the fact that the other two parties only talked about each other, suggesting that we were irrelevant.
If we come under fire from the other two parties, it may make us look more credible. If the papers discuss our policies, readers will hear about them (instead of being oblivious to them).
I suspect the success or otherwise of the campaign may now rest of Nick winning (or at least holding his own in) the other two debates. This week’s debate on Foreign Policy is an open goal for the Lib Dems. Let’s hope Nick is not going to be like an England football player at a World Cup penalty shoot-out!
A couple more polls.
ICM
CON 33 (-1)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 30 (+2)
Angus Reid
CON 32 (-6)
LAB 24 (-4)
LD 32 (+10)
Angus Reid is the one which until quite recently was showing the Tories with a double-digit lead over Labour. Now tying with the Lib Dems …