Two polls published tonight:
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YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LIB DEM 29% (+1)
ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(+1)
So, after the excitement of today’s rightwing press salivating at the inevitable Tory election victory to come, we’re back to where we were at the end of last week … the Tories at c.33%, and Lib Dems and Labour tussling it out for second place on 28-29%, firmly back in hung parliament territory.
Of course, these results may be quirks, and none of us knows how far to trust polls published over the bank holiday weekend. Still, for those whose daily mood is determined by the polls, this is a fillip for the Lib Dems, and a dampener for the excitable Tory cheerleaders in the media.
Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report blog ‘poll of polls’ reflects yesterday’s uptick in Tory fortunes:
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CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%
That’s less dramatic than we might have hoped for two weeks ago. It’s beyond the wildest imaginations any of us had three weeks ago. Just four days until we find out for real …
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8 Comments
Yes, the LD polls continue to be good an the Tories’ poor, despite the best efforts of the Tory press to ignore reality and pretend that Cameron is surging to victory, e.g.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7670867/General-Election-2010-Tories-rule-out-Lib-Dem-alliance.html
I love the way that ‘Dave’ has now told the Torygraph that he will rule out a deal with the Lib Dems hoping to form a minority government with the Ulster Unionists. Apparently he’s even prepared to contest the constitution by telling the Queen that if he gets the highest share of the vote that he should be the one forming the Government not the Labour party.
It’s all so desperate. And what happened to wanting to do what’s in the interests of the country?
As election day approaches, people will balk at the idea of a Tory government, and the wide-scale abandonment of Labour by left-leaning periodicals will also throw some weight behind the LDs.
30%+ and 100+ seats: Nick Clegg as PM in a Lib-Lab coalition and PR.
I posted the following comment in the wrong place previously (on the article about the Nick Clegg debate winning poll). So apologies for that. So is my comment again in the correct place.
Personally I don’t trust the opinion polls to give an accurate picture of UK wide opinion., simply because they are so angocentric. If you look at ICM for instance, they take their samples exclusively from England. They say they factor in regional differences, but the regions they are referring to are in fact the north, midlands and south of England. Although YouGov take their samples from “an invited group of Internet users”, I believe there is also a stong anglocentric bias. Then to compound this bias, they project the number of Commons seats for each party all over the UK from these polls.
The latest TNS BMRB poll of Scottish voting intentions shows CON 13%, LAB 44%, LDEM 16%, SNP 23%, OTHERS 4%
This would see Labour gaining three seats, the SNP with no change, the Lib Dems losing a couple, and the Tories losing their single Scottish seat.
The average of recent Scottish polls has CON 15%, LAB 38%, LDEM 22%, SNP 21%, OTHERS 4%
This would see Labour remaining about the same (losing 1 and gaining 1), the Lib Dems with no change, SNP gaining 1 and the Tories again losing their only seat.
So if you see Tory gains being projected in Scotland based on supposedly UK wide poles, don’t believe it.
Not so sure about the situation in Wales, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the supposed UK poles are falsely used to predict Welsh seats as well.
I find it utterly bizarre and faintly disturbing that a party with 33-34% of the poll and falling should be announcing its plans for power. Precisely WHO has given them this guarantee that they will be in power on May 7th? The armed forces, the City? Who? It just demonstrates how totally rotten and rancid our political system has become.
Disgusting arrogance from David “entitled to rule” Cameron and I hope that Nick Clegg is able to make this point very forcefully in the next couple of days.
We need to finish this campaign talking about a balanced, peoples parliament – the more Lib Dem MP’s, the stronger parliament will be. Giving people their parliament back. To counter any arguments that that may mean we don’t think we can win, then to also show our cabinet in waiting to be the executive – Nick introducing those talents in our shadow cabinet during a PPB and finishing off with his own pitch.
Mike Smithson has pointed out before the problem that phone pollsters may be overestimating Labour because ICM in particular allocate “Don’t knows” and “Refuseds” to parties based on how they said they voted in 2005, which may no longer be accurate given the Lib Dem surge. He suggests that the unadjusted figures may be better: http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/03/brown-trails-even-further-in-the-leadership-ratings/
As we can see, that puts the Lib Dems second with Labour’s share dropping somewhat compared with the headline figures.
Today’s Daily Telegraph has a poll-of-polls putting the Tories on 36, Lib Dem on 28, Labour on 27, and quotes its information as ukpollingreport.co.uk/pa
But, to average 36 you have to be doing 36, 37, 38, more than once, and when did that happen…odd, or what? One for Stephen here!