22 Comments

• ChrisD 5th May '10 - 12:02am

  I have a horrible feeling people will switch to Labour to try and stop the Tories at the last minute.

  But here’s a thought. If people are now voting tactically to keep out the Tories and if UKIP are helping to squeeze the Conservative vote, then can the Conservatives or the Lib Dems ever boot the Labour party out of power with an outright majority under the FPTP system?

  Really the Conservatives should be asking whether they really wouldn’t be better off backing PR. They seem to believe that under such a system the Lib Dems would always try and keep them out of power, when I could see the Liberals working as easily with the Tories as Labour.

• JohnM 5th May '10 - 12:22am

  we have had a very hostile tabloid media ranged against us touting the most terrible lies and half-truths. Eventually the drip, drip effect and the tea-break chats, work canteen and pub talk begins to ape such tabloid junk. But we used to complain that we didn’t get any attention!

• Anthony Aloysius St 5th May '10 - 12:23am

  The Lib Dem rating in polls published over the last three days is, on average, 26-27%, with the Tories perhaps ten points ahead of that and Labour back in second place. If the polls are correct it does seem likely that – with the benefit of an increased swing in Lab/Con marginals – the Tories will be the largest party in the Commons. But it still doesn’t seem to me that the polls are indicating an overall Tory majority.

  I only hope this doesn’t mean the election campaign is going to be extended for another six months or so …

• Sesenco 5th May '10 - 12:36am

  Why does the YouGov poll featured on Politics Home put the Lib Dems on 28%?

• Paul 5th May '10 - 12:49am

  We should all be wary of the polls. This election has seen a major upset to the usual two party system. Polls are based on assumptions and we will find after the election that some of these assumptions have been changed in the last three / four days as the pollsters are trying to guess the result! The YouGov poll is likely an outlier because of the way they are tracking.

  There are several reasons for optimism for Lib Dems. But the the fact is they depend on Lib Dems getting the vote out. If the turnout is strong and more young people and late reistrants vote then the Lib Dems will do better. the pollsters are weighting these groups down based on history. They may be wrong. They could be right – if people don’t work and get the vote out they will be right!

  The regional variations mean that Lib Dems could gain seats without huge gains in vote share due to the vagaries of FPTP… The seat projections given by many polls are based on UNS – the same swings everywhere – that won’t be the case. Tactical voting will result in some gains.

  There are apparently large numbers of undecided voters – who will get their vote when its cast? Allto play for but Lib Dems are usually better beneficiaries of undecideds than the others are.

  The main point as ever is that its real votes in the ballot box that count. So there is still all to play for.

• Sesenco 5th May '10 - 12:58am

  YouGov appears to have given us two sets of figures drawn from the same poll: the 35/30/24 headline split, and the 34/28/28 split, along with the regional breakdown, published on Politics Home. It looks like sleight of hand to me. The sample was more than 11,000, the fieldwork was done on Monday, and the raw figures put us on 28%. Somewhere along the line the figures appear to have been altered, giving the impression of a collapse in Lib Dem support and a sudden (and for some, alarming) rise in Labour support. As it was published in the “Sun”, this should surprise us not.

• Matthew Huntbach 5th May '10 - 1:11am

  If our share of the vote is falling, it indicates a failure to build on the success in the TV debates.

  The press were very heavily pushing the line “It’s just like a game show, a contestant you didn’t think would do well did better than expected, so the contestant briefly had the public’s sympathy”.

  What we SHOULD have done in our national campaign is make clear that it wasn’t just Nick Clegg doing well, but actually the party campaign doing well due to us all getting stuck into it and showing people what we’re about. The point was not to let them get away with the claim it was just a transient thing with no real foundation.

  On the whole, the punters didn’t come out from the first debate thinking “Wow, Clegg’s our saviour, I really really want him to be our leader”. They came out thinking “I hadn’t really considered the LibDem option, I hardly knew who Clegg was, now I see he looks ok, so maybe I’ll give them a try”.

  I must say, I don’t watch TV much, but I did yesterday (to see how Clegg’s visit to south-east London was covered), and I detected a distinct bias against us. Brown and Camercon (that was a typo but I like it) received much more sympathetic treatment than Clegg. Brown’s crocodile tears over the kid whose mum was a low paid cleaner in BROWN’S OWN TREASURY is something he would have been pulled apart for if they had decided to carry on with the “Brown’s a loser” line. Camercon says he’ll cut the deficit and cut taxes by “efficiency” savings. One of the things that means is putting things like cleaning out to the lowest tender i.e. a lot more kids whose lives are a misery due to their mums having to work all hours for really low pay, and Mr Camercon would think that wonderful and tell the kid “be lucky you’re mum’s in a job” as when she struggles home wanting to do nothing but sleep she is supposed to run schools etc etc for free as part of the “Big Society”.

  Nick’s going to have to pull off a big one in the next few days. Now he needs to think, where his real friends are. I’ve been beastly to him, yes, since before he was elected leader. But I’ll stick up for him now when it counts. Look at all those in the right-wing press who were saying what a wonderful person he was when he was standing for leader, how we’d only have to put him in and they’d give us oh so much more sympathetic coverage.

  Well, they didn’t, did they? They won’t, it doesn’t matter how much Orange Booky crawling you do to them, they’ll still come out for the Tories in the end. And they’ll still put the boot into us if it looks like we’re really getting somewhere. We rattled them, and they got scared – so they’re backing the two-party state big time now, go soft on Brown (he is after all carrying on Tory Plan B) and carry on being soft on Camercon, reporting his ridiculous claims to be all Big Society and Green etc as if they made some sense when he’s also fundamentally all big business – and that is the OPPOSITE of green, big society and everything else cuddly Camercon claims to be.

  I’ve been doing this for a long time, but I don’t think I’ve ever encountered as much hypocrisy from the other parties as I have in this election. There’s been times when I’ve respected them – doesn’t mean I agreed with them but they did have a coherent but different vision for the country than mine. This time they just anger me with so much rubbish-speak, how can anyone take them seriously? So out-of-touch, so Westminster bubble.

  Let’s get some real angry anti-establishment stuff from Nick, fight back against the Murdochs etc who want to rule us, show them up for their cynical policies whose only real aim is more stonking wealth for the fat cats at the expense of the rest of us, more kids in tears because mum works on a poverty wage to pay for the fat cats’ lives of luxury. Life is going to be hard for the next five years whoever wins, but we need someone at the top who we can be sure really stands for fairness for everyone, someone who will inspire even the greedy to see that we must all pull together for the sake of this country, and inevitably that means the strongest must pull the hardest instead of whingeing it isn’t fair when they have to pay tax. Fat cats – that girl’s mum probably works harder than all of you. Fat cats, in the past our young men were sent out to die for our country. Now you whinge about a little less luxury for yourself and threaten to flee to Switzerland or Monte Carlo or wherever because the mess you’ve led us into needs sorting out and someone – those who still have jobs and money – has to pay for it.

  We have the might of the establishment against us, but we have our Focuses and we have our enthusiasm. Nick must lead us to victory with that, he won’t get anything out of his fairweather friends in the right-wing press, so he should stop trying and instead inspire his true friends to work harder for him in the next two days, for the sake of the country, for the sake of the little kid crying because mum works so hard but they still have no money, for the sake of true democracy.

• Allan 5th May '10 - 1:17am

  Think something went “POP” when Nick Clegg visited Glasgow yesterday!

• Sesenco 5th May '10 - 1:28am

  The YouGov Wales poll, giving us 23%, was carried out on the same day as the YouGov national poll, giving us (allegedly) 24%. Is YouGov telling us we are doing only 1% better nationwide that in Wales? When we did 5% better in 2005? Oddly enough, 5 added to 23 gives 28! Some explaining needs to be done, methinks.

• Steve Comer 5th May '10 - 1:35am

  I agree with much of what Matthew has said – now is the time to make clear that we are the insurgent radicals in this contest, not the third choice establishment party. We’ve done well today with a good rebuttal of the letter from retired defence chiefs.
  The air war has been full of too much talk of ‘vote X get Y’, especially after the contradictory statement from Labour following the Balls/Hain comments. I don’t see any move back to Labour in my canvassing, but I think the Tories may encourage it (as they did in 1983). I was expecting another big salvo against us from the tabloids at the weekend, but it didn’t really happen. Maybe they realised that the ‘nazi’ jibes etc were counterproductive?
  We need a day of positive change messges, not more speculation about a result which will be known in a matter of hours.

  We also need to be wary of the fact that the bond markets will be opening at 01:00 on Friday morning, so if the early results are not good for the Tories, their threats about the economy will become a self-fulfilling prophecy as Tory billionnaires rush to sell………..

• SimonH 5th May '10 - 2:28am

  I detest most of the media in this country. Even the BBC is notably anti-Lib Dem in a subtle yet infuriating way – from the headings they put on their news articles, their tendency to ‘bury’ negative Tory items, to highlighting, for example, the views of various unimportant or planted hecklers at Nick’s speeches, which we never hear about regarding Cameron. We don’t even get much room for discussion or publicisation of our policies since most space is devoted to hung parliaments and who we might be backing. Which is atrocious given our powerful and significant policy contributions.

  I agree with Matthew’s sentiments, that Clegg/Lib Dems really must find a way to fight back today and on Thursday – to grab some high-profile attention to sway the undecideds and wavering Tories. We really don’t have a lot to lose given what appears to be our slump in the polls, so I think it’s high time for some bold and powerful non-jargon plain English critique of the system that, frankly, most people in the UK are tired of.

• Ian 5th May '10 - 6:59am

  Our strongest card is representing the “little man/woman” against the establishment – Nick against the old two party system, right-wing media, Tory bankers and big business….there was a readers’ poster in the Guardian at the end of April here which makes the point:

  http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/gallery/2010/apr/28/general-election-2010-peoples-posters?picture=361972188

• Cllr Patrick Smith 5th May '10 - 8:04am

  Nick Clegg and our economic sage Vince Cable and all front line team have done a magnificent job in presenting the case for liberal progressive reform from May 6th on economy,tax refund for 4 million ,electoral reform and public trust and the delivery of greater local accountability in running local councils.

  The key to the conscionable undecideds will be that Nick Clegg is the only leader best equipped to clean up politics.

  A vote for a Liberal Democrat will help elect a Liberal Democrat.

  A vote for a Liberal Democrat will elect what is on the tin!

  Paddy Ashdown has said that people should only vote on their beliefs and vote for someone they want to represent them.

  It is heartening that there is a great resurgence of Lib.Dem. support in the South West and in London on the eve of May 6th.

• JohnM 5th May '10 - 8:24am

  how Nick might sum up our final pitch:
  1/ don’t be cowered by yesterdays parties or manipulated by the OLD MEDIA that supports them – they would deceive you that your vote is theirs’.
  2/ every Lib Dem vote and every Lib Dem MP will make a stronger parliament, a block for change, for reason and sensible debate.

  if our campaign team has made a mistake, failing to maintain the surge, then it was not running a PPB and other events to introduce the shadow cabinet – an executive of talent, in waiting! For too many voters, we are the Nick Clegg party and “lack experience”. Always use greater force against itself!

• Paul McKeown 5th May '10 - 9:38am

  All this talk of tactical voting always wrecks us. Liberal Democrats should simply say vote for us, each vote for us increases our ability to influence government policy at Westminster. We should not be talking at all about preferences between Labour and Conservatives, as far as I can see they are both equally objectionable, just in different ways. We should say simply that we would be happy to work with either or both in the interest of the nation but our aim is to see key Liberal Democrat policies implemented. I hope never to read Lib Dem’s talking of “voting Labour to keep out the Tories,” again. It is stupid, it is treacherous and it is damaging.

• Philip Young 5th May '10 - 9:46am

  The polls have slipped back because of stuff like today’s front page on the Daily Mail, the drip drip drip in The Sun and the like, fear is a great motivator, and the fear that has been generated by the Lib Dem policy “that will let in more immigrants attracted by an amnesty” and the current stuff on a hung parliament must have some effect.
  JohnM is right – the newspapers are of some influence.

• Ed Randall 5th May '10 - 10:25am

  Thanks (fellow Lib Dem Voice readers) for some thoughtful and helpful comments on the state of the campaign and on the poll ‘findings’ … in response to Stephen’s poll watch.

  There is no doubt in my mind that YouGov is playing a very dangerous game. In allowing their latest poll results to be shaped, reported and headlined in the way they have been in the Sun they have, in my view, posed a series of questions about the nature of their relationship with a major customer for their ‘professional services’.

  The regional aggregates from their polling do raise disturbing questions about the reliability of their ‘headlined’ product and the way they have permitted it to be used. However, the regional swings shown in their data are encouraging. The data makes it clear that the prospects for turning LibDem votes into seats have improved considerably in the course of the campaign.

  It is a moot point whether the sophistication that the British electorate have shown with respect to the Murdoch and Tory inclined press coverage of the campaign and party policies extends to their presentation and representation of polling data.Of course James Murdoch has a job to do for himself and for his father Rupert and, as his visit to the Independent indicated, he is someone who believes, like David Cameron, that he is entitled; even if he is somewhat less sophisticated in showing it than David Cameron.

  What is clear is that despite media scare tactics and the usual economy with the truth the electorate has a great desire for change in the electoral system. There is also a wide spread recognition that this is a necessary condition for genuine change in our politics. Canvassing, listening to people whose views I respect and following media coverage of the election, I am even more convinced that there is a great thirst for change in our political culture and the way we are governed. There is also a widespread recognition that neither Con nor Lab can deliver that change. BUT many of those who are desperate for change and thoughtful about it are still not convinced that we can deliver it.

  Four weeks campaigning – however successful – is never going to convince all of those we need to convince that we can deliver. It – the GE campaign – can only be part of a process that needs to be sustained.

  Nick and his entire team have every incentive and – despite some carping – more than enough ability to communicate the message that we live in a broken political system (not a broken society) AND that its burial and replacement can be accomplished. No one – and that includes Nick and his immediate team – can reasonably be expected to deliver the promised land on their own. We have to carefully adjust and calibrate our expectations and refashion and renew what we do and how we do it. The post-mortem on this GE is going to be very important for the party.

  Alan Johnson’s carefully crafted image – the Lib Dems suffering a slow puncture – should be viewed as a perceptive representation of the outcome of the combined efforts of the Tory press and of our political opponents. It would be amazing if the onslaught from Murdoch, Con and Lab, had not done us damage. It is remarkable that the loss of pressure, built up early on the campaign, has been so modest to date.

  I know that the BBC’s subtle bias makes many of us angry. But is shouldn’t surprise us. It is a reflection of a deeply entrenched conservatism that helps to explain why the electorate often fails to follow through on the change it desires. I think the mentality is often described as ‘clinging to nurse for fear of something worse’. The BBC is a reflection of British society. The remarkable thing is that despite the media conservatism unprecedented numbers of people have contemplated and are contemplating voting differently. More of them than ever before are on the verge of doing so. And, it is worth adding, many of them have already done so!

• Jeremy Hargreaves 5th May '10 - 10:33am

  Do any of the other experts on polling think that Sesenco is right – ie that the Yougov poll actually puts us on 28%? Seems quite important…

• Sesenco 5th May '10 - 10:42am

  I simply don’t trust a minority Labour government to deliver PR – or anything else, come to that – so I will not be “lending” my vote to the man-with-no-name in the key Lab-Con marginal where I live. His leaflet is full of “Only Labour believes in X, Y, Z”, “Only Labour can deliver X, Y, Z”. Can’t they grow out of this vacuous sloganising? After careful consideration of the pros and cons, I won’t be contaminating my right hand in the polling-booth. In the meantime, I am off to a Lib Dem target to blitz it with paper.

• JohnM 5th May '10 - 10:53am

  if the poll was really 28% and not 24% then we need to make an issue of this! This is old establishment subterfuge! The OLD MEDIA is the enemy of change! Are these the same papers who upheld the God of the City and drank from the same trough, criticising us for warning of an unsustainable situation.

• Paul McKeown 5th May '10 - 10:54am

  @Sesenco
  >>>I simply don’t trust a minority Labour government to deliver PR

  That is entirely my fear, too.

• Mark Pack 5th May '10 - 1:07pm

  A quick piece of house-keeping: if you think a comment has been wrongly caught as spam (e.g. because of the link(s) it contained), it makes sense to try posting it a second time in case a computer gremlin ate it, but after that it’s best to drop an email to [email protected]. If there is a problem with a comment being wrongly trapped as spam, posting in a different thread won’t make any difference (as that’s not how the spam filtering works) other than possibly getting moderated for being off-topic 🙂