Pollwatch Day 3 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38% (still)

Just one new poll tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 40% (+3%), LAB 31% (-1%), LIB DEM 18% (-1%)

All moves are, of course, within the margin of error. So, yes, it could be the Tory lead has widened. Or it might have not. That’s the joy of polls – read into them what you choose.

This latest survey hasn’t yet made it into Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’, but it’s not going to make a huge difference, I don’t think, so here’s the score as of 8th April:

    Con 38% (n/c), Lab 30% (n/c), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

Very much a case of ‘as you were’.

I received an interesting email from Andrew Hawkins of pollster ComRes, who provided the following interesting table:

    1992 // Con // Lab // LD // Con lead
    Pre-campaign 41 39 16 +2
    Actual result 42 34 18 +8

    1997
    Pre-campaign 28 54 12 -26
    Actual result 31 43 17 -12

    2001
    Pre-campaign 30 51 13 -21
    Actual result 32 41 18 -9

    2005
    Pre-campaign 33 39 20 -6
    Actual result 35 32 22 -3

    2010
    Pre-campaign 37 32 19 +5
    Actual result ? ? ? ?

As Andrew notes, this table:

… shows that in each of the past four general elections, the Conservatives’ average vote share has increased in the weeks before the election while Labour’s average vote share has decreased . Likewise the Lib Dem vote share tends to move upwards from pre-campaign to polling day.

It’s the final sentence there that interested me most 🙂

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This entry was posted in General Election and Polls.
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One Comment

  • colinanderson 9th Apr '10 - 2:36am

    You are the only party who make any sense in the political climate at present, or indeed for many years. We must insure the electorate that they are being given the truth by lib dems. You are going factory to factory to speak to a few, now go from town to town and speak to the many and have this organised in order to have many party suporters there

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