Pollwatch Days 17-18 #GE2010 – Lib Dems on 29% in today’s polls

Two new polls tonight:

    Harris in the Mail … CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(+1)

This makes it one full week during which the Lib Dem surge has been maintained, with the party polling consistently in the high-20%s right up to the mid-30%s. The Tories appear to be stuck in the low 30%s, while Labour is consistently pegged in the mid-to-high 20%s. Amusingly the Mail has headlined its poll – showing a 5% Tory lead over the Lib Dems – as follows: Cameron regaining the ground he lost to Clegg after fighting back in TV debate. Not entirely sure that counts as regaining ground!

Here’s Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report’s ‘poll of polls’ average:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 29%

There was one other poll yesterday – YouGov’s daily tracker in the Sun showing CON 34%(+1), LAB 29%(+2), LIB DEM 28%(-3). ComRes also carried out a voting intention poll of those who watched the second televised debate, showing CON 36%, LAB 24%, LIB DEM 35% – but such polls should be treated with some scepticism of course, especially as viewing figures for this debate were lower, and its impact almost certainly much reduced compared with last week’s explosive debate.

As Professor Michael Thrasher commented on Sky News:

I have never ever seen an election campaign like it, its totally different, talk about change … it’s changed because the Liberal Democrats have changed it all in the most dramatic way. All three parties are only divided by around 5 per centage point. The Tories need a double-digit lead if they are to pull of a majority, its now very, very difficult for them to win outright.”

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This entry was posted in General Election and Polls.


  • we really need to check the slight Tory momentum after the smears and 2nd debate. A real Tory /Lib Dem ding dong! Though I would really like to see a PPB with Nick introducing his talented shadow cabinet – ready to take office and bring real change, that would be just what we need at this point.

  • Cllr Patrick Smith 24th Apr '10 - 8:18am

    Nick Clegg was again authoritatively outstanding on all policy areas that Liberal Democrats are now leading British public opinion.These policies are well costed on including not replacing Trident with `like for like’,raising pensions immediatley to the cost of living index,a fairer Immigration system based on regional and employment linked decisions and abolition of tax for 4 million least off British families.

    The greater Fairness explicit in Nick Clegg`s exposion on Pensions,Carers,Immigrants,greater prospects for debt free students in further and higher Education,the release of the Nation`s dependency on the expensive Trident Defence option- a legacy from the `Cold War-‘ and the specific pledge to provide one week`s paid holiday for the Nation`s one million Carers each year.

    I predict the Nick Clegg`s star will continue to rise into the ascendant as he has explained best the most honest and pragmatic policies on Defence,Education ,Health and Home Care and importantly the Economy for Britain..

  • Unfortunately, the Tories seem to be in the mid, rather than lower 30s as the article suggests, and they appear to have some slight momentum. But do the Tories have effectively a glass ceiling around 38 per cent?

    One very optimistic scenario, is that the LibDems could be seen as the only viable challnger should Labour’s support decline further, so it effectively becomes a two rather than three horse race, with Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. But how low can the Labour vote go down to? In the Euros I think it was 16 per cent, but I suspect we’re looking at around 25 per cent minimum.

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