Five new polls over the last 2 days of the campaign:
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YouGov in the Sun … CON 39%(+2), LAB 33%(+2), LIB DEM 20%(nc)
ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 37%(-2), LAB 30%(-2), LIB DEM 20%(+4)
ICM in the Guardian … CON 37%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LIB DEM 20%(-1)
Opinium in the Express … CON 39%(nc), LAB 31%(+2), LIB DEM 17%(nc)
YouGov in the Sun … CON 37%(-3), LAB 31%(-1), LIB DEM 20%(+2)
After the small uptick in support registered by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ over the weekend, today sees the Tories dropping down 1%, with Lib Dems and Labour both unchanged – as they have been since the campaign began last week:
Con 38% (-1%), Lab 30% (n/c), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)
Interesting to note from today’s YouGov findings that the issue on which the Lib Dems have the best ratings among the public is … taxation. It seems the theme of fair taxes is beginning to resound: 19% says the party would handle this best, behind Labour (but not by much).
And as for Nick Clegg, here are the qualities the public associates wth him:
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Honest: 30% (Brown 22%, Cameron 18%)
In touch with the concerns of ordinary people: 26% (Brown 18%, Cameron 17%)
Sticks to what he believes in: 21% (Brown 36%, Cameron 18%)
Charismatic: 17% (Brown 2%, Cameron 42%)
Decisive: 12% (Brown 15%, Cameron 22%)
Strong: 9% (Brown 22%, Cameron 21%)
A natural leader: 7% (Brown 4%, Cameron 25%)
Good in a crisis: 4% (Brown 20%, Cameron 9%)
None of these: 20% (Brown 44%, Cameron 29%)
Don’t know: 34% (Brown 6%, Cameron 12%)
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Labour = (33+30+31+31+31)/5 = 31%
Lib Dem = (20+20+20+17+20)/5 = 19%
I think you’ll find the bold numbers are from UK Polling Report, which include older polls. The 5 at the start are new polls in the last 2 days, as the article says.
“I think you’ll find the bold numbers are from UK Polling Report, which include older polls. “
And is also a rather complicated weighted average, rather than a simple arithmetic mean.
@ Anthony – perhaps because “a simple arithmetic mean” is statistically meaningless?
If past history is of any relevance, we should not expect the polls to move in our direction until at least midway through the campaign (in 1983 it was in the final week, and after Jim Callaghan shoved the knife into Labour’s defence policy).
I am a little surprised (and concerned) that Nick doesn’t come out better on things like strength, decisiveness and leadership. He needs to use the opportunity of the leadership debates to put this right.
The all have a + or – 3% if they are lucky. It will depend where the electors are and whether the seat is marginal or not and who is first and second. It may be interesting to track opinions in safe seats, which are probably least affect by local campaigning. For instance in South Leicestershire, except for one or two enthusastic farmers there are no posters up anywhere, and locally you would not know that there is an election on.
“@ Anthony – perhaps because “a simple arithmetic mean” is statistically meaningless?”
That seems an odd thing to say, considering LDV has traditionally summarised each month’s polls by a simple arithmetic mean, the last one being about three weeks ago.
But rest assured I wasn’t making a value judgment – just pointing out another respect in which the UKPR polling average differed from the figures suggested by the commenter calling herself “Average”.
@ Anthony – and I’ve always been open and honest that our monthly ‘poll of polls’ is statistically meaningless. It’s an interesting rule of thumb no more, no less. But if you’re going to average things, which comes with severe health warnings, UK Polling Report’s method is a far more valid measure.
I agree that the UKPR polling average has some advantages over a simple arithmetic mean. For example, at the moment the weightings are preventing the figures being dominated by the YouGov daily polls through sheer weight of numbers.
But I think you’d be hard pressed to argue that it is statistically “valid”, while an arithmetic mean is statistically “meaningless”, and I’m sure Anthony Wells himself wouldn’t claim this.
The reason is that different polling companies process their data in different ways, which produces clear systematic differences in their results. So no average of data from different companies can be statistically valid. All such averages are just rough illustrations of the state of the polls, though some are better than others. You can read Anthony Wells’s comments on this subject here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-polling-report-average