The Scottish constituency breakdown of the exit poll should be taken with a fairly large pinch of salt. In 2019, it predicted we would lose all of our seats north of the border and we won 4. The MRP models don’t generally do Scotland that well.

This time, it predicts that we are on 5 our current 4 plus Mid Dumbartonshire. That would coincide with our own hopes and, I think, backs up what we have picked up on the ground during the campaign. So, fingers crossed  that is accurate.

Labour are predicted to gain 29 seats, bringing them to 30, and the Tories are supposed to double their seats from 6 to 12. The SNP are predicted to do worse than even the most pessimistic predictions, with just 10 seats, down from 48.

However, it seems unlikely that the Tories will double their seats, least of all themselves who are doing a bit of expectation management on this. Nobody really believes that their current Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his Aberdeen South seat to them, a key target for Labour. Pete Wishart would also lose his Perth seat to the Conservatives.  However, there may be a return for Stephen Gethins, beaten by Wendy Chamberlain in North East Fife in 2019 and now standing in Arbroath.

Labour would be delighted to have a majority of the Scottish seats and such a dismal SNP showing should put to bed talk of independence for a while at least. The SNP manifesto had said that if they won 29 seats (ie lose 19 of their current seats) they would see it as a mandate to commence independence negotiations. The country appears to have told them “no thanks.”

Labour are quite likely to regain East Lothian, meaning a return for former

The poll predicts a total wipeout for the SNP in Glasgow, Scotland’s largest city which voted for independence 10 years ago. The capital would see 4 out of the 5 seats go from SNP to Labour, meaning Joanna Cherry would lose her seat.

I will admit to bursting into tears when I saw Jo Swinson as our representative on the BBC Scotland Election night coverage. It looks like we might regain the new version of her old seat, lost by just 149 votes in 2019. It’s great to see her and I know she has been working really hard for our candidate Susan Murray.

It’s been pretty clear during the campaign that this was going to be a strong night for Labour and a grim one for the SNP.   I don’t think anyone expected the Tories to do more than hold their current 6 seats. All of that seems to be the case, it’s just a matter of the final numbers. Only a few hours to wait until we get the full results.

Alex Cole-Hamilton had this to say:

The Liberal Democrats will make a huge leap forward and are back as a major force in British politics. It is humbling that millions of people have backed us to kick the Conservatives out of power and deliver the change our country needs.

I’m proud of the Liberal Democrats’ positive and energetic campaign. Our hardworking candidates and campaigners have knocked on doors and delivered leaflets in all weathers.

Thank you to everyone who has put their faith in our local champions and their focus on giving our nation’s carers a fair deal, getting you fast access to GPs and dentists, and stopping sewage dumping in our rivers.

Whether you voted for us or not, we will work our hearts out for you and show you the true meaning of public service. We can be hopeful for what tonight and the future holds

 

* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings