Tag Archives: 2024 general election

From Labour Council Chair to proud Lib Dem: How Labour forced me out

Three hours before the deadline for General Election nominations on June 7th, 2024, I resigned as a Labour councillor and as Chair of the Bromsgrove Labour Party. I stood as an independent parliamentary candidate, secured 1561 votes, while Labour lost by 3016 votes to the Conservatives. I have since joined the Lib Dems as I explain below, and we are now the main opposition on Bromsgrove District Council.

Why did I leave the Labour Party and stand against its official candidate?  I had poured my heart and soul into leading the Labour Party in Bromsgrove, transforming it from a gathering that struggled to reach quorum (with fewer than five attendees in 2021) to a team of eight dedicated councillors within three years. Throughout my tenure as a councillor, I earned the respect and trust of all political parties in Bromsgrove, culminating in a unanimous vote to chair the council for a second term in May 2024, just before the General Election was called.

The decision to resign from Labour weighed on me heavily, but the Party had behaved in a very undemocratic way, and after deep reflection, I knew I had to leave.  The local party had been trying to appoint me as its candidate for some time and had been pressing the National Executive Committee (NEC) for action. But on 24 May, it received an email from HQ announcing that Neena Gill, a former MEP, was to be the candidate. I received a phone call the following day from a member of the NEC from which I gathered that I had failed the “due diligence test”. When I pressed for the report, they told me it might be shared after the elections, but not before. I saw this as an affront to the democratic process that denied me the opportunity to understand the basis of their rejection. I submitted a data access request after the General Election, but I was not allowed to see it. 

During my time as a councillor, I had focussed very much on local issues but, following Israel’s war on Gaza, I started to post and write about Palestine, including the ICJ ruling, and my father’s harrowing story of ethnic cleansing in Jerusalem in the Nakba of 1948. It became clear to me in the days after the nomination fiasco that this is what had upset people in the higher echelons of Labour who are/were keen to suppress pro-Palestinian voices and who were probably uncomfortable to discover that my father was Palestinian. 

Initially, local councillors tried to persuade Gill to step aside and called on the Party to reconsider its decision.  But then, twenty-four hours before my resignation, all councillors but two were photographed championing the parachuted candidate.

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Don’t forget to contribute to the General Election Review

After every General Election, it’s become our habit to have a good look at what went well and what went badly and publish a General Election Review.

This year’s will doubtless be a lot happier than the last few. The Review team is led by Tim Farron. He is joined by

Cllr Ade Adeyemo
Paul Farthing
Cllr Donna Harris
Cllr Emma Holland-Lindsay
Mike O’Carroll
Sally Pattle

Their remit is to:

  • review the party’s performance at the general election, based on both the campaign period itself and the preparatory work and strategy through the whole Parliament.
  • particularly focus on the lessons relevant to the party’s next stages of development, including the linkages between electoral success at different levels, and make recommendations accordingly.

Time is running out to complete the online survey. The website says that it is open until 3 November – which isn’t long – but one of the review team said in a WhatsApp chat that it closed on 18 October, eg this Friday. So if you haven’t completed it yet, you’d be well advised to get a wiggle on.

I think that our campaign was perfect for the moment. But the moment was that the entire country wanted rid of the Tories. Our fun filled campaign, built on years of careful campaigning, did what it needed to.

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Up to 750,000 people disenfranchised in General Election

The Electoral Commission report on Voter ID in the General Election found that 16,000 would-be voters were turned away by polling officers because they did not have approved ID. But the picture is much worse than that, because many people simply did not turn up at the polling station because of the ID rules, or were stopped by the greeter and never returned. In fact, the Electoral Commission reckons that 750,000 people might not have voted in the General Election because of the need for Voter ID.

The report also found that while most people were aware of the requirement for Voter ID, 29% of people aged 18- 24 did not know about it and 24% of people from ethnic minority communities were unaware. In general, the impact was felt greatest by those two groups plus voters in social grade C2DE.

This is a topic I have written about before. On the day after the local elections in 2023, when Voter ID was first introduced, I asked: “Voter ID – did it prevent electoral fraud or did it interfere with voters’ rights?“. The answer came the following month with another report from the Electoral Commission: “14,000 voters turned away – but probably many more“. Then a month later a letter appeared in the press from eminent ethnic minority actors and artists, calling for the abolition of Voter ID because of its disproportionate impact on people of colour: “Actors and artists back the abolition of Voter ID“.

There are two possible responses to the latest findings. Either increase the types of acceptable photographic ID or abolish Voter ID altogether.

The Electoral Commission recommends that “The UK Government should undertake and publish a review of the current list of accepted forms of ID, to identify any additional documents that could be included to improve accessibility for voters.” At the moment travel passes for older people are acceptable but bizarrely those for young people are not. They also suggest that any voter who does not have a acceptable form of ID should be able to take a registered voter with them to the polling station to attest for them.

The other option – embraced by the Lib Dems, is to abolish Voter ID altogether.  Its original purpose was to stop impersonation – when someone fraudulently claims to be someone else and steals their vote. This is a crime, of course, but one that seems to happen extremely rarely. Between 2019 and 2023 only 11 people were convicted of it.

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The importance of saying “Thank you”

As someone who first got involved with the Liberals at the General Election of February 1974, I suppose I might be described as a veteran of election campaigns.  At various times over the decades I have been a candidate (national and local), an agent, and a foot soldier.

Last month I was excited to be able to help out in three target seats, two of which were fairly close to my home, and one which involved a lengthy journey.  Some health issues prevented me from doing as much as I did 50 years ago, but I am of course delighted that in all three constituencies, Lib Dem MPs were elected with very healthy majorities.

Like all the other 69 MPs that were elected, none of these three would now be in Westminster if it had not been for the thousands of volunteers up and down the country who faced up to fierce dogs, fiddly gates and difficult letter boxes, who knocked on hundreds of doors, and who wrote interminable envelopes.  Like others I guess, I was shouted at, barked and growled at, had balled-up leaflets thrown at me, and also met some lovely people.

Whilst I appreciate that new, and returning MPs, have a huge amount to cope with in their first few weeks, not least finding somewhere to live, setting up an office, and coping with the inevitable flood of case work, there is one thing which I believe they should all do, as a priority, and that is say “thank you” to those whose sterling efforts ensured that they were elected.

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Mark Pack’s monthly report: This is what you did

Thank you

From our low of 6 seats in 1959 through to our then peak of 63 in 2006, gaining 57 seats took 47 years. We’ve now gained 61 seats in just 5 years. It was an amazing team achievement, and we all should be proud of the roles we have played.

Perhaps the most amazing helper is our kind deliverer Geoff, who both campaigned locally and in a target seat, a mere 79 years(!) after he delivered his first leaflet as a very young deliverer in the 1945 general election.

Whether it was your first or your twenty-second general election, and whether you helped with leaflets, canvassing, money or in one of many other ways, thank you.

This is what you did:

A particular thanks too to those who worked so hard on campaigns that did not quite make it this time. Just missing out is always frustrating, and all the more so when so many others around you are celebrating. I hope though our other successes can give you hope that success will come in your area too in the years to come.

What happened

That photograph did not happen by accident. Although Rishi Sunak, and before him Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, gave us a helping hand, it was a result we created – deliberately, following a plan all through the Parliament.

We did so by breaking all previous records for the effectiveness of targeting.

Nor was this just due to split opposition votes, because the Lib Dem vote share in the seats we won was impressively high, as Patrick Dunleavy’s figures show:

1983 was the high point of the Alliance and previous attempts to break the two-party system in Westminster. Compared to then, we secured half the votes this time – but three times as many seats. In a political system where the currency of success is seats, that is quite the success.

Of course, the national campaign had an important part in that too. It was a national campaign focused on the voters and media outlets that most mattered for winning seats, and which caught the public’s imagination:

That image captures one of the important lessons from our 2019 election review: the importance of strong visual images to cut through a crowded media landscape and to reach a public often not that interested in the details of politics.

Though I suspect none of that review team – whose work was essential to guiding our work through the last Parliament – quite foresaw what visual images would be coming…

The response from voters came through clearly in the polls:

How it happened

There will be more lessons to digest as there is more time to hear feedback and analyse the evidence, both of what worked well and of what areas we need to work on for next time.

The broad picture though has some clear features. Success came from:

  1. Concentrating on the issues that mattered most to voters;
  2. Building strong teams in our most promising areas;
  3. Explicitly targeting seat numbers rather than vote share – aiming to win seats where we could and to build up our organisational strength elsewhere;
  4. Investing early in intensive support for our candidates and campaigners in our most promising areas;
  5. Taking each round of elections seriously, with each important in its own right but also as a building block for the next too; and
  6. Working together as one team, following a collective strategy based on what you, party members, decided at our conference.

That comes through in the reasons people gave pollster More in Common for voting Liberal Democrat:

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Watch Josh Babarinde talking about his bungee jump

Ed Davey was not the only politician to throw himself off a crane, held only by elastic bands around his ankles.

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BBC celebrates new MPs

The BBC has been profiling some of our new MPs, with great photos. (You will have to click through to see some of them).

Mike Martin: Tunbridge Wells

Mike told the BBC:

I am absolutely humbled being here and elected. It’s a total privilege.

I just can’t wait to get stuck in now, to help with all of the issues people have told me about over the past two years.

David Chadwick: Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Twelve years ago David was in a serious car crash and was put in an induced coma. On top of that he developed a rare neurological condition called Guillain-Barré Syndrome – I have huge sympathy for David as my husband has had it as well.   He said:

The experience made me realise how important a functioning health care system is, because we never know when we’re going to need it.

When I was totally paralysed I had a lot of time to think about my life and I decided I want to use my body and the rest of my life to do good.

I’ve met a lot of people over the past couple of weeks who really need support and it’s an honour to be in a place where I can hopefully help them as much as I can.

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Welcome to my day: 8 July 2024 – have you not been entertained?

Good heavens, wasn’t Thursday night fun? It’s been nearly twenty years since I enjoyed an election night that much, given that even 2010 was bittersweet as a series of seats slipped out of our grasp just when we thought that a massive surge was on.

Watching Conservative MP after Conservative MP lose their seats was reassurance that the British public can’t be fooled all of the time, taking the opportunity to find imaginative ways to defeat a discredited and disgraced administration. And to see so many new faces, many of whom will be new even to our own membership, can only inspire a new generation of activists to push on in next year’s local elections, both to shore up our support in the gained seats, but to create a new set of potential targets for 2029.

Because times are about to get interesting. Labour are going to have to do something similar in those seats that they gained on 4 July, especially those in rural areas such as Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket or Suffolk Coastal in my neighbourhood, where they won despite the almost total absence of a local government base. We know that their activist base is predominantly urban, but does success breed a new activist base for them beyond the old heartlands?

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How I spent Polling Day

During a very long and miserable campaign by both Labour and the Tories, we Liberal Democrats had to resort to some pretty inventive campaign stunts to grab national attention. These efforts  aimed to inject some much-needed positivity into the campaign.

Finally, Election Day arrived, A momentous occasion where the collective voices of millions shape our nation’s future. Where employees (the politicians) meet their managers for their performance review and interviews (the voters). This is my election diary.

Morning:

I was jolted awake by my dad’s cat, whom I am currently looking after.  Begrudgingly, I got out of bed and fed her her second meal of the morning. To unwind, I turned on the news, played some music, and tidied up my dad’s house. The day felt sluggish, and the anticipation of the election results only made time crawl slower. I couldn’t wait for the government to change.

Afternoon:

Feeling restless, I ventured out for a long walk to my local polling station. On my way back, I chatted with various people.  I noticed a concerning trend: many in Stoke-on-Trent Central were planning to vote for Reform UK. Discussions often centred on Farage’s rhetoric about the NHS, immigration, and “woke culture.”

Stoke has a troubling history with far-right politics, having seen the BNP hold council seats and UKIP’s Paul Nuttall come second in the 2016 by-election. Despite its low immigrant population, people feel threatened by immigration.  Stoke’s managed decline since the 1980s of poverty, drug addiction, inadequate housing, and council mismanagement is evident. Unlike Liverpool or Manchester, it hasn’t seen significant regeneration. I remember a local headline from my teenage years promising EU-funded regeneration that never materialised. It worries me that Reform UK’s divisive politics are gaining traction here.

Back home, I recorded a few videos and decided what to wear for the count.

Evening: Voting

I arrived at the polling station, where a clerk reminded me to have my ID ready. I confidently reached into my pocket, only to realise I’d left it at home. Embarrassed, I raced back to fetch it.

10 pm: Exit Poll

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Finally – We have 72 MPs

Finally, after a combined total of about 18 hours of counting over 2 days, we have our 72nd MP. Angus MacDonald was confirmed as MP for Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire a while ago.

Alex Cole-Hamilton was very happy indeed:

My heart is in the highlands today. The Liberal Democrats were all but wiped out in 2015, but that wasn’t the worst thing to happen to us that year. Weeks later we lost Charles Kennedy.

That the final act of this general election should see his old seat returned to Lib Dem hands and the care of Angus MacDonald is simply wonderful.

I’m overjoyed that Angus has become the sensational sixth Scottish Liberal Democrat MP.

Angus has shown that the Liberal Democrats are the strongest voice for the Highlands. He will focus on what really matters, such as getting you NHS care close to home, improving dangerous roads and fighting for a fair deal for the Highlands.

Millions of people have voted for change and put their trust in us, so our job now is to repay it in full and be their local champions.

Join the Liberal Democrats today and you can be part of the change in both Scotland and the UK.

Here is the result

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We need to move from the shires and suburbs into the deprived areas of the UK

No matter how successful we have been in the many General Elections that I have been involved in since my first in 1970 there has always been someone who, after the elections, says, ….”but!” So, it might as well be me! In fact, let me correct my own first sentence. For the first time since 1970 I have not been involved in the General Election at all. Convention in Liverpool is that for the year that you are in office the Lord Mayor plays no part in politics so that they can act as the only member of the council able to speak in Purdah periods but also, as with the Speaker, can be neutral throughout the year.

For most of my political life I have been involved in the school of hard politics, which is Liverpool, but it could be any other rough, tough, urban core city or borough. Although I represent a reasonably affluent area now, the fabulous Penny Lane Ward, for much of my time on the council I represented difficult inner-city areas. My lament through the whole of this period has been that the Liberals and then Liberal Democrats have been a party of the suburbs and shires. A quick look at the map of where Lib Dems took seats on Thursday will see that this has not changed at all.

I do understand the need for targeting and believe that this policy was absolutely necessary to ensure that we came back from the political wilderness to enable the Party as a whole to be relevant to the law-making processes of the nation as a whole. But we have now achieved that and my plea to Ed Davey and our other leaders is that now is the time to be bold and push for real representation in our major cities.

Now I know that we are not entirely unrepresented in urban areas at local level. We control Hull and have significant and growing numbers of councillors in places like Sheffield, Newcastle and a growing re-energised presence in my own city of Liverpool. But over the whole of my 50 years in Liverpool we have had to do everything ourselves and fight a poorly funded urban guerilla warfare against Labour’s well-funded mighty machines.

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Didn’t we have a good national campaign!

Few of us dreamed that we could come out of this election campaign with over 70 seats.  The willingness of Liberal Democrats across the country to travel to target seats, the high quality of the local campaign organisation when we got there, determined efforts to raise more money than most local campaigns have ever thought of before, all helped to maximise our gains.  But we must also give full credit to the high quality and sustained consistency of the national campaign.

I expect that many Liberal Democrats – naturally argumentative, with strong opinions of our own – have had their doubts about aspects of our national strategy over the past year or more: a focus on sewage and water pollution rather than Europe or Liberal values, a ruthless approach to target seat selection and to the demands placed upon them, stunts and photo-opportunities that attracted attention but didn’t seem sufficiently serious. 

Well, the results have justified the hard discipline our central organisation imposed.  Concentrated campaigning harvested tactical votes and used our limited funds effectively.  Ed Davey’s standing in the polls rose as Sunak’s fell; he was seen to be the most human and approachable of the three main party leaders.  And as to sewage: the issue of water pollution ‘cut through’, as the phrase goes, to a point where much of the Thames Valley has turned orange.

Liberal Democrats outside London may grasp only with difficulty how much smaller our professional staff is than those who have thronged Conservative and Labour headquarters in their hundreds: extensive media and digital teams, multiple fundraisers, ranks of policy advisers, organisers for national and local campaigns.  Our headquarters has unavoidably remained small, within our limited budget – with its staff probably paid a good deal less than elsewhere, and helped by volunteers.  I think I have had half our media team in my Lords office once or twice – and it’s not a large office!  

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Inverness recount: WATCH LIVE

Are you excited for the Inverness result which could give us our 72nd (yes, that’s SEVENTY TWO) MP?

Highland Council are streaming it on  You Tube. Watch, live from Dingwall.

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Christine Jardine: “We have a job to do, a country to repair and liberalism to defend”

At about 4am on Friday, 26,645 residents of Edinburgh West voted for Christine Jardine to continue as MP. This gave her a stonking majority of almost 16,500 over the SNP. To put this in perspective, in 2017, when she won the seat for the first time, she got 18,108 votes and a majority of just under 3000. It is the best  performance in the seat since 1955.

She is pictured here with her daughter Mhairi. Here is her victory speech.

 

Returning officer, counting staff, police, everyone who has worked to distribute polling cards, postal voting packs, staff polling stations and count the votes.Thank You.

What you have done has allowed us to demonstrate just how well we do democracy, and just how much we should value it.

To the people of Edinburgh West thank you. Thank you, for the faith you have shown in me, and my party, at a time when people are crying out for better governments you have put your trust in us to fight for the change that you want to see.

At a time when democracy across the world is under threat and there are those in this country who would undermine it, I promise you I will do everything in my power to protect those rights we hold dear for all of us.

This is also a hugely significant night for representation in Scotland and for the Liberal Democrats.

Nine years ago, we suffered a very difficult, different evening which Charles Kennedy described as the night of the long Sgian dubhs.

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Ed Davey’s victory speech

This is what Ed said after his result was announced in Kingston & Surbiton:

Thank you. It’s been a great privilege to serve our Kingston and Surbiton communities over many years.

And I am humbled that you’ve put your faith in me – to do it again. So let me say a big “thank you”.

And thank you too, to Sarah our Returning Officer, and to all the staff and police who’ve worked here through the night.

You are the unsung heroes of our democracy. It simply wouldn’t work without you. And thank you to my fellow candidates. For making this, a campaign we

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That went pretty well

Anticappointment is a concept coined by Toby Hadoke, a prominent Doctor Who commentator, to describe how Doctor Who fans approach a new series. They worry that they are not going to like it, even though they probably will. As a Liberal Democrat it fits well with how we approach elections.

Over forty years of disappointing election results has made me very cautious about predicting how many MPs we will end up with. I eventually decided to predict 32 MPs, pretty much our main target list. By the time polling day arrived, I knew that even though I was trying to limit my expectations, I’d be devastated if that was all we won.

But it wasn’t. We have 71 MPs. 71. SEVENTY ONE.  By the time I’ve finished writing this, it could be 72. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, in essence much of Charles Kennedy’s old seat, is recounting and I hear our folks our chipper.

Here’s Ed Davey exuberantly dad dancing and loads of Lib Dems singing Sweet Caroline. I always loved that song, but this has written it on my heart forever.

It’s a brilliant night for us. The best we have known in the history of our party by some margin.

Since Mary’s last update, we have added Chesham and Amersham to our list of technical gains. Sarah Green won it in a by-election in 2021, and few expected her to hang on to it. But she did. With a majority of around 5,500.  We also held on to our other three by-election gains. Helen Morgan’s vote in North Shropshire practically had to be weighed as she romped to a 15,300 majority. Incredible to think that in 2019 and forever before this was a rock solid Tory seat.  The one people were really worried about was Honiton and Sidmouth, the re-boundaried half of Tiverton and Honiton, won by Richard Foord in June 2o22. But Richard smashed it, beating Tory Simon Jupp by around 7000 votes. As an added bonus, the Tiverton part of the by-election seat was won by our Rachel Gilmour.  Sarah Dyke also held onto Glastonbury and Somerton by 6,500 votes. The icing on that cake was Anna Sabine winning the other half of that by-election seat for us.

We also held on to all the MPs we won in 2017.

There’s always one result that breaks your heart, though. Poor Paul Follows had been widely anticipated to beat Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash. He just fell short by 800 votes.

I am thrilled beyond measure to see Vikki Slade finally elected in Mid Dorset and North Poole. After four attempts to win the seat, she made it, with a majority of just under 1400.

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An early morning apology

I’m afraid that the speed of the results – plus increasing tiredness – has meant that we have got a bit behind in reporting Lib Dem successes.

I will be putting together a (almost) final summary of our wins shortly.

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More new seats – and some old ones

Glastonbury and Somerton is one of those newly drawn constituencies that is difficult to predict, but it has been shown as a Lib Dem gain from Conservatives. Sarah Dyke was our by-election winner in the overlapping constituency of Somerton & Frome so we are delighted to see her success in the new patch.

And how lovely to see Tessa Munt returning to Parliament after losing her seat in 2015. Her new seat is called Wells and Mendip Hills.

Wera Hobhouse has held Bath, I’m pleased to say.

Over in North Norfolk Steff Aquarone has regained the North Norfolk seat where Norman Lamb was MP until he stood down in 2019.

Another scorching victory in Wimbledon where Paul Kohler has taken the seat from the Tories with a 12,000 majority. (There is a bit of a theme developing here – 12,000 is the cool number).

Dorking and Horley is another blue wall seat that has fallen to us. Chris Coghlan is our new MP there.

Another pleasing gain in Melksham & Devizes – so congratulations to Brian Mathew.

Sadly for us we did not manage to snatch Jeremy Hunt’s seat of Godalming & Ash, in spite of a strong campaign by our candidate.

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More blue wall and South West seats

Another South West seat has come our way – Ian Roome has won Devon North from the Conservatives. It was previously Nick Harvey’s seat – until 2015.

Hampshire North East has also come to us, thanks to Alex Brewer overturning a huge Conservative majority.

And Jess Brown-Fuller has achieved a whopping 12,000 majority in Chichester – another seat we have never held before!

Tunbridge Wells is similar – another blue wall seat that we have never held – but Mike Martin has taken it with a 8,000 majority.

We are building up pockets of Lim Demmery and in Cambridgeshire Ely & East Cambridgeshire lies alongside St Neots & Mid Cams and South Cambridgeshire. Charlotte Cane is now the MP for Ely & East Cambridgeshire.

Then what can we say about Thornbury & Yate? Claire Young has regained the seat previously held by revered Pensions Minister Steve Webb in the Coalition.

And now Yeovil is back with us! Adam Dance has managed to overturn the Conservatives to come in with a 12,000 majority. This was, of course, Paddy Ashdown’s seat, followed by David Laws so it is good to see it back in the fold again.

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More Lib Dem wins

Well, Ed Davey’s record was short lived. Munira Wilson has held on to her Twickenham seat with a massive 21,000 majority!

Huge congratulations to Marie Goldman who took Chelmsford from the Conservatives with a good majority! This is the first time we have won that seat.

Then there is Steve Darling in Torbay, who turns the town orange again, following a challenging campaign.

And Lisa Smart in Hazel Grove (back with us at last!).

Bobby Dean regains Carshalton and Wallington – another seat we lost in 2015.

They are just announcing that we have regained Cheltenham, one of our top target seats, as well – well done to Max Wilkinson!

And now Sutton & Cheam returns to the Lib Dems with Luke Taylor.

Now Sarah Olney matches Ed Davey’s majority in her seat of Richmond Park.

And we have gained Stratford on Avon for the first time – previously held by Nadhim Zahawi with a huge majority.  Welcome to Manuela Perteghella!

Congratulations to all our new MPs – 1r so far.

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Our first gain(s) of the night!

Congratulations to Tom Gordon – our first MP so far, and our first gain, in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Lib Dems first won the seat in 1997, and Phil Willis held on to it right through until he stood down in 2010, when it passed to the Conservatives. Wonderful to gain it back!

And the next one to come in is also technically a gain, though one we held before the meltdown in 2015. Eastleigh is triumphant again with Liz Jarvis!

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Tales from the campaign

Yet more waiting until the key results, from our perspective, start to come in.

So let’s fill in the time with reflections on the campaign. Thanks to Andy Boddington for this photo of farmer and Shropshire Councillor Richard Huffer who finds a different way to draw attention to the campaign for Matthew Green, PPC for South Shropshire.

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Scottish exit poll comes with a large pinch of salt

The Scottish constituency breakdown of the exit poll should be taken with a fairly large pinch of salt. In 2019, it predicted we would lose all of our seats north of the border and we won 4. The MRP models don’t generally do Scotland that well.

This time, it predicts that we are on 5 our current 4 plus Mid Dumbartonshire. That would coincide with our own hopes and, I think, backs up what we have picked up on the ground during the campaign. So, fingers crossed  that is accurate.

Labour are predicted to gain 29 seats, bringing them to 30, and the Tories are supposed to double their seats from 6 to 12. The SNP are predicted to do worse than even the most pessimistic predictions, with just 10 seats, down from 48.

However, it seems unlikely that the Tories will double their seats, least of all themselves who are doing a bit of expectation management on this. Nobody really believes that their current Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his Aberdeen South seat to them, a key target for Labour. Pete Wishart would also lose his Perth seat to the Conservatives.  However, there may be a return for Stephen Gethins, beaten by Wendy Chamberlain in North East Fife in 2019 and now standing in Arbroath.

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Ed Davey: Lib Dems on course for best results in a century

Ed Davey made these comments after the polls closed:

The Liberal Democrats are on course for our best results in a century, thanks to our positive campaign with health and care at its heart.

I am humbled by the millions of people who backed the Liberal Democrats to both kick the Conservatives out of power and deliver the change our country needs.

Every Liberal Democrat MP will be a strong local champion for their community standing up for the NHS and care. Whether you voted for us or not, we will work day in and day out and we will not let you down.

He also pointed out that if the Liberal Democrat make 29 gains, bringing them to 37 seats, this would be the highest number of seats gained by the party at a General Election since 1923.

If the exit poll is accurate then we could smash that.

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That exit poll

So – the prediction is 61 Lib Dem MPs!

That is a rise of 53 on the 2019 result!!!

Just brilliant.

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It’s almost all over

So how has polling day been for you? I am sure I am not the only person who got sunburnt while telling at a polling station.

Talking of which, did anyone mention dogs at polling stations? I had a conversation with this beautiful Pyrenean Mountain Dog while taking numbers.

We now wait for the exit polls, which have been pretty accurate in previous elections. To keep you entertained I thought I might remind you of what happened to a previous editor of Lib Dem Voice, Stephen Tall, back in 2015.

You may have noticed that the members of the Lib Dem Voice team have been reticent to make predictions about how many seats we will win. That’s because we don’t want to follow in Stephen’s footsteps – quite literally.

He pledged to run naked down Whitehall if the party gained fewer than 20 seats in the General Election in 2015.  Here is a reminder of what happened next…

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Go for it!

Embed from Getty Images

Our warmest wishes go to everyone out campaigning today.

If you are a candidate realistically hoping that you will be an MP tomorrow, then go for it (and stop reading political blogs for the time being!).

If you are a candidate with little chance of winning, then keep cheerful – we owe you a huge thank you for giving so much to this campaign and keeping the Lib Dem diamonds bright.

If you are an activist or supporter who will be spending the day door knocking, delivering, telling or doing those all vital back room tasks, then you are the real heroes of this campaign. Enjoy the day, and be pleased that you have participated in an election that we will be talking about for many years to come.

You won’t be hearing much from the Lib Dem Voice team during the day today – we are all a bit busy. But we will be offering news and commentary throughout the night so do check in after 10pm and maybe share stories with us at [email protected].

We should also remember the many council by-elections taking place today as well. The news about those contests may get buried under the national news, but please let us know and we will highlight what we can.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 5 Comments

It’s Eve of Poll. How are you going to help Lib Dems win tomorrow?

It’s hard to believe that it’s 6 weeks since Rishi Sunak stood in the rain in Downing Street to fire the starting gun to the General Election campaign.

Since then, there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, apart from a few points up for us, sparked by the brilliant, positive, incredible images and messages coming from our leader. What a time to come in to the form of your life, Ed Davey!

This party has fought our best campaign for years at every possible level. Our media spokespeople have been amazing. Ed has shown in the debates, Question Times and interviews that there is a huge amount of substance behind the style. He has tackled tough questions head on, with honesty and humility.

It’s all getting real now. Tomorrow, people in our target seats will have to clear a path through their Lib Dem leaflets to their door and go out to vote. Some will still be wrestling with their choice even as they stand in the voting booth with the pencil in hand. We need to be in their heads with our positive messages at that point. That is why it is so important that we get our eve of polls and good mornings out and knock on as many doors and make as many phone calls as possible.

And it’s why it is really really important that every single ounce of our efforts goes into seats where we are in the running.

If you need convincing of this, here’s the North East Fife result from 2017:

Stephen Gethins Scottish National Party 13,743 32.9% -8.1%
Elizabeth Riches Liberal Democrat 13,741 32.9% 1.5%
Tony Miklinski Conservative 10,088 24.1% 7.8%
Rosalind Garton Labour 4,026 9.6% 1.9%
Mike Scott-Hayward Independent 224 0.5% 0.5%

Two votes in it. Don’t let that happen again.

And even this May 97 more votes could have given us control of 3 more Councils.

What you do and where you do it on Polling day really matters. If you can’t travel, please think about making calls from home – or from holiday.

The messages that the Tories are putting out might seem bizarre to us. Their “letter from July 2044” aimed at bringing Reform voters back on board is probably the weirdest bit of literature we’ve ever seen, but we are not their target audience.

Mel Stride’s extraordinary comments this morning that you need enough Tories around to scrutinise Labour are very strange indeed. The only thing that the Tories will be capable of scrutinising over the next five years will be each other, with menaces. They are a party riven with irreconcilable differences and they will make a load of ferrets in a sack seem like the best of friends.

If you want a really good opposition to Labour, you will need a coherent, confident, capable party to keep their feet to the fire. So you obviously need lots of Liberal Democrats.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 4 Comments

Bungee jumping and Zumba – all in a day’s campaigning for Ed Davey

In this long election campaign, we’ve had Rishi Sunak deliver a never-ending stream of negativity and misery, Keir Starmer being so nervous about screwing things up that he’s coming across as walking on eggshells and Nigel Farage being as objectionable as ever.

Ed Davey’s bright and happy photo opportunities have provided a welcome contrast and attracted lots of positive comment.

Today, he decided to throw himself off a platform from a great height by way of inviting people to vote Liberal Democrat.

Watch, courtesy of Sky News:

The rationale for this:

To get the change our country needs this week and beat the Conservatives in scores of seats, I am asking people to take a leap of faith and vote for the Liberal Democrats.

A lot of people are on the cusp of doing something they’ve never done before on Thursday and voting for the Liberal Democrats, so I decided to do something I’ve never done before too.

Every vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote to fix the NHS and care, end the sewage scandal and tackle the cost of living crisis.

Ed talked to The Guardian about the rationale for the stunts:

Posted in News | Also tagged | 5 Comments

Liberal Democrats winning here

Local parties and residents have been creative in the use of posters.

This splendid display is in our target seat of Esher and Walton:

Here is a novel cantilevered approach in Ed Davey’s constituency:

I like the way the diamond points to a leaflet. Thanks to Ruth Bright for this one from a home in Eastleigh:

Got a (copyright-free) photo to share? Landscape works best. Email them to [email protected] and we will add them to the post.

Posted in News | 11 Comments
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