The key figures doing the rounds on the internet* are:
Nick Clegg: 56%
Chris Huhne: 44%
% members voted so far: 48%
* Therefore either true, or not. Take your pick.
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30 Comments
Those seem quite credible given what we’ve heard from both the campaigns on their own internal polling.
Just for reference, 72% of members voted last time – so if the Sky/YouGov figures are correct that means that roughly two-thirds of the people who will vote have voted.
Just out of interest, was this commissioned and paid for directly by Sky? The reason I ask is that I heard that another YouGov poll was being commissioned by Chris Huhnes’s campaign and wanted to make sure we knew which was which…
COME ON CLEGG, hes got to win it. Best man for the job.
24% of those spoken to were undecided (not included in headline figures above). 52% hadn’t voted yet. There’s a 5 points +/- margin of error and those “interviewed” included James Graham and several other bloggers which would suggest that the poll may not be as representative of normal members as is first thought.
Last comment was left by Ned Lamb
Haven’t even had a wee ballot paper yet!
Ned, The last week has been interesting in that the situation does not seem as simple as your “best man for the job” summation suggests. We’ve had Chris Huhne showing precisely how the party can get media coverage (through his demonstration with Donorgate) while Nick Clegg seems to be conducting a particularly elongated fact-finding visit to a Siberian Salt Mine.
The suggestion that 48% of members have already voted rings true. Experience of all member ballots is that most people who are going to vote do so soon after the ballot papers arrive.
Anyone who hasn’t yet received their ballot paper should contact David Allworthy in Cowley Street. If you haven’t received a ballot paper by now some thing’s gone wrong somewhere..
8 – unless you live in the North West region where 10% of the ballot papers can get lost in the post and they carry on regardless.
Not to mention the very large number of members excluded from voting by other means
“If you haven’t received a ballot paper by now some thing’s gone wrong somewhere..”
Is the Senior Returning Officer in the European selections saying that there is something wrong if people haven’t recieved ballot papers two weeks before they are due to be returned?
This is inconsistent with the views expressed in the European selections that non-delivery of some ballot papers was something to be expected and tolerated.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/euro-and-london-mayoral-ballot-deadlines-extended-1565.html
Given when leadership ballot papers were posted, if you haven’t received one now that means the Royal Mail has lost it, there’s an error in your address or there’s an error in your memebership status.
In all three cases, if a member gets in touch with the Returning Officer, this problem can be sorted.
There’s no inconsistency between that approach and that in the Euros.
The difference in the Euros was that the Royal Mail’s strike meant that a larger number of ballot papers were lost in the post (though sadly, given the Royal Mail’s record, there are always going to be a few) and also that there were problems with (I believe) some replacement ballot papers also getting caught up in the fallout from the strike.
Often one of the main problems with postal ballots is that members don’t know that they should have received a ballot paper and/or don’t know they can get in touch with the Returning Officer to sort out the problem.
It’d be a shame if people make comments that confuse or disguise this point because they disagree with what should happen if there’s a Royal Mail strike 🙂
There is an (unstated) figure of acceptable non-delivery of ballot papers.
There was also a (higher but also unstated) figure of non-delivery of ballot papers in the Euro elections.
So that further confusion doesn’t arise would it be possible to know what these two figures were and whether any of the uses of the post for official services such as service of court documents were altered during the NW strike.
just out of interest, given the dire performance of the GPO at the best of times, is it worth looking at modernising our party’s democratic processes?
re 12
there is a problem with an “acceptable” level of non-delivery – how does anybody know how many have not been delivered?
Also, one of the problems with the Euros was not non-delivery, but late delivery. Mine arrived the day after the close of the ballot. Others arrived over the next 2-3 days.
Perhaps take a leaf out of the Government’s book? They use UPS, don’t they?
I am suprised that members of the Liberal Democrats haven’t mentioned the part of the Sky News poll results that reads:
Nearly half of members polled (49%) prefer Gordon Brown as Prime Minister than David Cameron (18%) and would prefer to side with Labour rather than the Conservatives in the event of a ‘hung parliament’. 44% would oppose a coalition with the Tories under any circumstances, while only 26% would oppose a similar deal with Labour.
May I ask members of the Liberal Democrats why they would prefer a sleazy Labour government, rather than a conservative government in place?
16. If ya need to ask, you probably wont get the answer…
Becuase most likely they don’t want to talk about, for fear of losing votes come the next local elections in 2008.
16 & 18 you should realise that the Lib Dems exist for the purposes of electing Lib Dems not Tory or Labour.
Paul ‘The Machine’ Seery
Glad to see you’re confirming something I’d always suspected … 😉
“16 & 18 you should realise that the Lib Dems exist for the purposes of electing Lib Dems not Tory or Labour.”
That and we hate the Tories.
21. Whatever party they’re in….(see Mark oaten)
This poll concides with my guess of the likely result. It will in my view be yet another example of how the members of this party usually make the wrong decision when voting for leader.
You only had to see Chris on TV today to see why he is vastly better than Nick Clegg. But if members cannot see what is so obvious, so be it.
Why has this awful I want a referendum banner appeared under my comment?
23) That’s democracy for you – do you think we should abolish it Tony?
Tony Greaves wrote:
“You only had to see Chris on TV today to see why he is vastly better than Nick Clegg. But if members cannot see what is so obvious, so be it.”
Yes, Tony. Objectively that is the case. And that is why Chris is performing better among the members than he is within the Parliamentary Party.
But there are two factors working against Chris which may not prove possible to overcome:-
(1) The hyping up of Nick Clegg in the media.
(2) The shafting of Chris Huhne by the party establishment.
The reason for No 2 is easy to identify. MPs want an easy life. That is what Nick will give them. Chris would doubtless kick backsides and deliver the sharp side of his tongue if need be.
No 1 is more worrying. Why are the media so keen on Clegg? Who is pushing this? Is it Murdoch? Irwin Stelzer? Cheney? The Project for a New American Century? Who?
I fear that Clegg simply isn’t that good. He doesn’t communicate well, he waffles, he is vague. If he leads from the front he will take the party to the right. If he doesn’t, he will be another chairman, like CK.
What kind of future is that?
Joe Taylor wrote: “Just out of interest, was this commissioned and paid for directly by Sky?”
Which is owned by Mr Rupert Murdoch !!!!
Angus, I agree that Chris is the better candidate and someone who is fully on top of his brief. But in a competitive leadership contest where you decide you really want one person to win, it is easy to exaggerate how bad the other guy is.
In this contest, that would be a mistake. Both candidates are good and should perform well as leader. If Nick employs the same people who wrote Ming’s last leadership speach – and why wouldn’t he? – I think he will be do well as leader.
Geoffrey Payne wrote: “But in a competitive leadership contest where you decide you really want one person to win, it is easy to exaggerate how bad the other guy is.”
I don’t think Nick Clegg is “bad”. I just don’t believe he is nearly as good as he is cracked up to be by his supporters and friends in the media.
I don’t even think Nick Clegg is a Washington stooge. It’s just that the big players in that part of town appear desperately keen he should win. And that bothers me.
Nick Clegg is better than Charles Kennedy, he is better than Mark Oaten, he is better than quite a lot of people. But is he good ENOUGH?
The writers of Campbell’s last confernce speech were:
Ming Campbell
Euan Roddin
Greg Simpson
Ian Wright
Neil Sherlock
Jon Oates and
Ed Davey
The Writers of Ming Campbell’s last but one conference speech were:
Ming Campbell
Euan Roddin
Greg Simpson
Ian Wright
Neil Sherlock and
Ed Davey
Looks like Jonny Oates gets the ‘made all the difference’ toast –
Remeber the last but one speech was the infamous ‘5 Tests speech’
Just goes to show – the main difference in speech writing is most often DELIVERY