Not every part of the UK has voted to leave the European Union. Every single council area of Scotland has voted to Remain, all but one of them by a significant margin,with most over 60%. In total, 62% of Scots voted to remain, 38% to leave.
The SNP is naturally making noises about a second independence referendum. Of course they are. It’s what they do. If we were them, we probably would too. Their manifesto was pretty explicit that they would consider they had the right to a referendum in these circumstances:
We believe that independence offers the best future for Scotland. However, Scotland will only become independent when a majority of people in Scotland choose that future in a democratic referendum – it will not happen just because the SNP wants it to, or because there is an SNP government.
At the same time if there is a clear demand for a referendum no politician has the right to stand in the way of the people of Scotland to choose their own future.
We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.
Let’s face it, though, the SNP will not call a second referendum if they don’t think they can win. This is bound to cause some disquiet within their party. The grassroots will be clamouring for a second vote but having one and losing it is something that Nicola Sturgeon just won’t contemplate. The moment she thinks she can win, she’ll call it and the Greens will give her the majority in Parliament to make it happen. She doesn’t need the say-so of anyone else.
I always said that exactly this situation would be my tipping point and that I’d rather be in an independent Scotland in the EU than in a UK dominated by right wing politicians and outside the EU. Now that that nightmare has come to pass, I’m not so sure. Right at this moment I am so utterly heartbroken that I feel I need time to come to terms with what’s happened. We need to breathe a bit and try and deal with the immediate crises. There are more than enough of them to occupy our minds.
We are now seeing what the consequences are of a reckless rush to a referendum. We certainly don’t need another any time soon.
It’s not enough for the SNP to say that Scotland and England have chosen different paths on the EU so we need to leave the UK. They still need to make the case for independence and they are only just deciding how to do that.
However much I fear for the way the UK is heading, I can’t actually see how independence would make Scotland’s overall situation better. The economics are pretty tough. At best it feels like it would be a choice between being, pardon the language, f***ed and slightly more or slightly less f***ed. It’s hardly an inspiring thought.
Even if it was, our manifesto was very clear on a second referendum:
We will not support a second referendum on independence in the next parliamentary term. Full stop.
We have form for breaking manifesto pledges. It didn’t go so well for us. However much we might instinctively recoil from the politics of those in charge in Westminster, we need to keep the promise we made to those who voted for us. I suspect they would feel betrayed if we did any different.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings. You can find her on Bluesky at caronmlindsay.bsky.social
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
Have resignations led to a rethink?
High Fell leaflet watch (2)
No, Leave didn't win the Brexit referendum because of Northern working class voters
Two new Makerfield by-election polls gives Burnham 5 and 12 point leads
Geoffrey Payne
Richard Whelan
David Raw
Tom Reeve
21 Comments
Caron, I think I said at the time of the election that while I didn’t agree with a second referendum at that time, ruling it out completely could prove to be a hostage to fortune.
There is some logic to a quick independence referendum so that Scotland’s accession could be negotiated alongside the rUK’s withdrawal. For example, on fisheries, it would be fairly easy to transfer the obligations and quotas to Scotland.
The thing is, we have ruled it out and I doubt we can go back on it now.
Whether we support a second Scottish referendum or not is irrelevant because we are irrelevant. If one is called, the more interesting question is whether we would support leaving. In fact, the way I feel today, perhaps London should have a referendum on leaving the U?K. We now live in a deeply, fractured, unpleasant society, scarily reminiscent of Weimar Germany.
Who says Europe would accept an independent Scotland as a member? One of our arguments for a No vote in 2014 (rightly) was that there was no guarantee that they’d have us, and indeed that it would be unlikely. I don’t see how that has changed. OK we voted IN and are being ‘dragged out against our will’, but I think it’s naïve to assume that would persuade any EU nation that they have some kind of moral obligation to have us. All the same obstacles exist.
I just can’t believe this has happened, and I also can’t believe we in Scotland are going to have to go through all that again. 8( JK Rowling has a brilliant tweet this morning: ‘David Cameron’s legacy will be the break-up of 2 unions, neither of which was necessary.’
Probably another referendum. If the Scottish Lib Dems are to be of future value they must be prepared to break with the past and support Independence. Reality and pragmatism must rule.
There will be calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland. What the IRA couldn’t achieve it seems Farage has. Imagine Ukip get hardly any support in Ulster!
Farage has called this “a victory for real people”. In that case, i shall be proud, henceforth, to define myself as unreal
“So what’s going to happen about Scotland?”
Scotland voted on independence just a few years ago in the near certain knowledge that an eu referendum was coming.
Nothing.
This is a comment I hoped I would not have to make. I always hoped England would come to its senses on the day, keeping the timing of a future independence referendum entirely in Scotland’s own hands and that independence would eventually come about with the whole of the British Isles within the EU. This week’s events have made that impossible and the timescale more urgent.
The choice is now between two very different unions. Many people will have voted and supported No two years ago honestly thinking they could remain in both unions. Things have turned out differently. The facts have changed and when the facts change rational people take time to weigh up the new situation and can change their minds.
It doesn’t matter what party you are from or which way you voted or campaigned in the past. What matters is what future you want. Anyone who wants to support independence for Scotland within the EU will find that they are very welcome in the Yes movement.
As an Englishman,perhaps I have limited rights to determine any view in Scotland, but as a Liberal, I agree that the party should state publicly trhat they would not stand in the way of a second referendum
Scotland is destined to be independent. It is an inevitability.
Roger Billings.
we don’t suddenly live in a fractured country and it is nothing like the Weimar. The EU was simply never that popular here. Part of the problem with the progressive wing of the remain camp is it’s insistence that the nation state is an inherently nasty concept and seeming conviction that ordinary citizens will turn savages without the EU.
The Scots would be daft to rush into an independence referendum too quickly. Imagine if they vote for independence, but the rest of the UK fails to negotiate a good free trade deal with the rest of the EU.
I haven’t checked the figures but I imagine that Scotland does massively more trade with England than it does with the rest of the EU. It would cause huge economic problems for Scotland if border controls were introduced between them and England. Suppose the Scots lost freedom of movement through England?
It’s bad enough that the UK has decided to throw up barriers between itself and its nearest neighbour; I can’t see how Scotland doing likewise would improve matters.
History is not necessarily a good indicator of what happens in modern times, but when Scotland was independent (pre 1603) and allied with various European powers, especially France, we didn’t actually do too well.
Nick – Scotland does do more trade with the rest of the UK than the EU so that does leave massive problems if Scotland does move towards independence or a second referendum.
Scotland now also runs a massive trade deficit, so the EU would not be unaware of the risks of Scotland joining, following the Greek experience.
The SNP had no plan B for the currency at the Scottish referendum and insisted last time that they would keep the pound (as they would remain in the EU) and things would remain the same. Even the SNP must realise that this is not credible anymore.
With a fragile Eurozone, those within the EU and Eurozone area will not want to take on any further risks until they have dealt with the existing problems – and Scotland is a risk they might not want to take on at this time. The EU might take this out of of the SNP’s hands by making the position clear.
The risk of other EU countries following the UK, at least to the stage of holding referendums, will cause further uncertainty within the EU and could delay any possible discussion relating to Scotland’s future, as they will have other fish to fry.
If the Scottish people wish to have a further referendum on their potential independence, then we should not stand in their way. We have now possibly missed the opportunity to move towards a genuinely federal UK comprising England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as linked but independent entities. If Scotland wants to be independent in the current circumstances and then seek to join the EU, good luck to them.
We will be left to wallow in Faragism etc so I will move to Scotland – more congenial company!
@Jane Anne liston
Scotland was independent until 1707, surprised hounding know that.
HOME RULE here we come (within a European federal structure).
Speaking from south of the border it seems to me that the SNP’s success is largely because they provide an effective lightning conductor for the strong but diffuse discontent with the appalling way the UK has been run since Thatcher which was only ever designed to benefit the 1%.
Independence doesn’t solve that but it would cause a whole bunch of new problems. Off the top of my head:
a) Oil: now in terminal decline (although a short term pick up is possible). What is to replace it in employment, in revenue?
b) Possible tariff barriers with easily largest trading partner (i.e. rest of UK). That might well be the outcome if Brussels decides to ‘punish’ Britain to discourage other leavers.
c) What currency? Either pounds or euros would make Scotland merely a ‘currency user’ (as opposed to issuer like the UK) so beholden to others’ overview of the budget – just like Greece!
d) Big banks need a big sovereign to backstop them credibly so they would have to leave Edinburgh leaving another big hole in the economy.
e) The situation will be evolving so quickly over several years that any settlement made will be high risk and likely to be overtaken by events.
f) It is by no means certain that the EU itself will be around in 5 or 10 years’ time.
Overarching all is the daftness of suggesting that difficulties in getting on with a culturally near-identical partner of 3 (or 4) centuries’ standing means that the best plan is to divorce and go off with someone you hardly know.
This is all about the personal ambition of a few people aiming to exploit the ‘lightning conductor’ factor for personal advantage.
If we genuinely aspire to be an outward-looking and internationalist party we should support membership of the EU. If that applies to the Liberal Democrats should it not also apply to the Scottish Liberal Democrats ?
The issue is not whether we should “stand in the way” of a second referendum on independence, but whether we should remaining in the EU when/if that referendum comes.
I think such a referendum will only happen if there something like a recession in the UK following this week’s events – creating the conditions to give Nicola Sturgeon the best chance of winning it.
Speaking personally, the prospect of an independent Scotland within the EU and in the Euro, looks much more attractive than domination by the Little Englander mentality of those who won the referendum.
Scotland should have its referendum. The Scottish people were led to believe that staying in the UK was the way to stay in the EU! i would support Scottish independence now having been opposed before
I supported and campaigned for Remain in Lincolnshire, one of the most Eurosceptic areas in the UK, but now feel lost and very worried for the future for my 4 year old son and daughter due in September. With Scots parents and being Christened in Scotland but born in England, due to my parents moving for better work and improving the life chances of their children (an economic migrant), I would now campaign for an Independent Scotland in Europe if I and my children could get dual nationality from a seperate Scotland in Europe.
We have seen a run in Northern Ireland on dual passports, is this not a symptom of this same fear that I have for my children of being outside of the European Club?