Syria is free. Despite the odds, despite the indifference, despite the efforts of the ‘Global community’ to ‘freeze the conflict’ and bring ‘stability’ to a problem they wished would go away… Syrians have freed themselves. The Assad regime, rotten to the core, competent solely at oppressing Syrians, is finished.
Across the country, Syrians from all religions, sects and ethnicities have been pulling down statues of their oppressor, but the images that probably matter most are those of people walking or being carried free from the regime’s prison network. Families being reunited with relatives they’d been told had died in captivity years ago. Children born to mothers in prison. An air force pilot imprisoned for refusing to carry out the order to bomb civilians in Hama – in 1982. Prisoners so abused that they cannot remember their own names.
Syrians are already beginning to return to their homes. From refugee camps within Syria and from surrounding countries. This is a time for optimism.
“If I can’t dance I don’t want to be in your revolution“
Sweida pic.twitter.com/CI8ykVLzLt
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 8, 2024
The revolution in Syria – and we can unambiguously call it that now, rather than a ‘conflict’ – has been poorly covered in the international media, with some honourable exceptions. In part I think this is down to how complex Syrian society is, in part due to how quickly and how often things changed in the country and in part because many in the media and politics fell (or worse, jumped knowingly) into the trap of seeing events in Syria as part of a ‘great game’, rather than seeing Syrians as a people with their own agency.
Over the years I’ve written a number of articles for Lib Dem Voice on Syria, in which I tried to do my part, to explain to party members what was happening, what our choices were as a country as to how we should respond. The Lib Dems for Free Syria organised briefings for parliamentarians and tried to feed into our party’s policy-making process. The most important thing we tried to do was to platform Syrians.
It’s with that in mind that I’m writing this today. Firstly, infinite congratulations to Syrians for overthrowing one of the worst monsters the world has seen. Secondly, to ask Liberal Democrats, whatever their concerns about what might come next for Syria, to please use this time to be happy for Syrians. The future is uncertain, but it is now for Syrians to determine.
There are some promising signs. Much of the country was freed through negotiation, or by local people taking it upon themselves rather than waiting for one of the armed opposition groups to arrive. Even regime strongholds, where we might have expected fear, if not loyalty to Assad, to fuel fighting against the opposition, have in many cases either surrendered to or outright joined the revolution. The Iranians, Hezbollah and Russians seem to be on their way out.
For sure, there will be difficult times ahead. Syria is devastated. Syria is likely both to need help, and to be incredibly wary of accepting it, even from organisations such as the UN who so thoroughly discredited themselves by their practical collusion with the regime over the distribution of aid. Syrian society is complex. No country emerges from decades of totalitarian rule without deeply-internalised trauma and a need for justice – or revenge.
But my final ask of Liberal Democrats is not to let reasonable fears for the future lead you to misunderstand the enormity – or the positivity – of what has happened. When the Iron Curtain descended across Europe following the Second World War, we didn’t say that the liberation of the concentration camps had been in vain. Comparisons with that war are frequently made and are frequently inappropriate, but if you don’t believe the freeing of Syria from Assad’s regime deserves the comparison, you really don’t understand the country. The future is uncertain. But almost whatever it holds, it cannot be worse that what Syrians have been experiencing for the last 13+ years.
Syrians are finally free.
* Jonathan Brown is a member of the Chichester Liberal Democrats and ran the Liberal Democrats for Free Syria.
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19 Comments
I think we need to be cautious. History has shown after the initial euphoria factions start to emerge and power struggles arise. The leading rebel group are a proscribed terrorist organisation and members would be arrested in the UK etc …Damascus had functioning Christian church’s and a Synagogue. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the way of all too previous liberations where one dictatorship of a religious sect is replaced by a other …
Jonathan Brown, “Syria is free.”
A bit premature to say that just now. We’ll know a bit better in twelve months’ time.
While pleased to see the ousting of Assad, I have deep concerns about what may come next. The role of Turkey in supporting rebels in the north can not be minimised and the danger is that Turkey, or their proxies, will now launch a war against the mainly Kurdish SDF forces in the north and north-east of the country as Turkey takes steps to ensure no Kurdish state can be established on the territory they currently control. In the south, I fear an emboldened Israel will take a buffer zone of Syria territory to protect the Golan heights which it has already illegally annexed. And of course, ISIS was once in control of much of Syria – how many of its supporters are preparing their next move after Assad’s demise?
So, while pleased that Assad is gone, I fear years of fighting may still lie ahead.
A bit too early for celebrations. Will Syria become a multi-cultural, multi-confessional democracy? Or will it become a new form of dictatorship, perhaps with sharia law imposed? Or will it balkanize? Asad was bad, is what comes after him any better? Too many unanswered questions.
Yes, celebrate the fall of a ruthless dictator, but temper it with a dose of realism about what might follow. At the time of this writing the most likely new government is likely to be led by HTS. It is internationally-recognised as a terrorist organisation with the declared aim of creating an Islamic state in Syria.
In my Observations of an Expat I explain my concerns and you, Jonathan, have taken issue with him. I am opposed to theocracies which is what an Islamic state would be. My opposition is based on the firm belief that any government which bases its legitimacy on a relationship with a Higher Being is hopelessly and irretrievably flawed. God is infallible. Politicians who claim a special relationship with God are draping themselves in that cloak of infallibility. That leaves no room for discussion or compromise. That is dangerous, especially in a powder keg region such as the Middle East.
HTS has in the recent past made efforts to work with other religions and tribal groupings. Hopefully that will continue. But past experience has made me a cynic, although I prefer the term realist.
Excellent news! Hopefuly a lot of Syrian refugees can now return home and rebuild.
Finally a defeat for Putin and Iran. With Hezbollah cut off in Lebanon their supplies will dwindle. Now we wait to see what sort of people take over.
Great article!
One of things I’ve always valued regarding your work with the LDs for Free Syria has been your commitment to centering the views of actual Syrians, avoiding the mistakes many well meaning westerners make trying to speak on their behalf.
Like many, I’m a little nervous for what comes next, but can see that this is huge achievement for the Syrian people, especially given that many of us will have written it off as a lost cause.
Congratulations to the Syrian people for winning their freedom!
Not sure if this is a defeat for Putin. It seems the Russian navy withdraw from Syria a few days back. Obviously, by withdrawing from Syria, Putin has released troops and equipment for deployment in Ukraine…
>” Now we wait to see what sort of people take over.”
History says expect women to suffer…
Yes, Jonathan, we all delight in the disappearance of the Assad regime, and Syrians can honestly celebrate their new-found freedoms. How long can it last? There are certainly grounds for optimism, if those voices calling for a multi-faith, multi-ethnic state come out on top in the struggle for power among the victorious groups. And there are signs that this might happen – even HTS seems to have become more realistic and apparently ditched its historic support for a pure Islamic state. But the threats – both internal and eternal – are worrying. For a start, whatever government is formed is going to need massive funding for reconstruction, and from where are such millions going to come? And Turkiye’s relations with several groups is also a problem (even if the removal of Iranian influence is indeed welcome). What is the future for the remarkable Kurdish experiment in Rojava? Hopefully there can be some sort of semi-autonomous status negotiated, if Turkiye will accept that Rojava does not support PKK actions in southeast Turkiye.
Yes I am happy for Syrians that after over 50 years their brutal oppression by the Assads is over.
But, as others have said, I am fearful for Syria’s future. The history in the region of the overthrow of such dictatorship has not been good.
Given Syria’a multicultural make up, with countries to the north & south who may well try to intervene in Syrian affairs, we (as Lib Dems) should make it clear to the UK Government that such actions by neighbouring countries are to be discouraged.
For all that, the downfall of the Assads is to be celebrated.
@Tom Arms, you might be interested to know that for some of us it is belief in a Higher Being (as you put it) that led us to liberal values.
With regard to Jowlani, and the concerns you raised in your Observations of an Expat piece (you will have seen my post on that thread – I fear you essentialise), Islamism covers a broad spectrum ranging from the horrors of Da’esh through to those Islamists who see true democracy as stemming from Islam and who cogently point out the defects of democracy as it is practised in the West. A book you might find interesting is How the West stole Democracy from the Arabs by Elizabeth Thompson. https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=How+the+West+stole+Democarcy+from+the+Arabs&i=stripbooks&crid=3H8G32257QE8Z&sprefix=how+the+west+stole+democarcy+from+the+arabs%2Cstripbooks%2C88&ref=nb_sb_noss
It tells the sad tale of how France, with the connivance of Britain and the Zionist movement and the indifference of the USA, frustrated the attempt by Islamists and Liberals to create a democratic constitutional monarchy in Syria.
If Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley could take part in democratic politics in Northern Ireland I see no reason why Jowlani cannot. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
It seems that Israel trusts the ‘New Free Syria’ rather less than the Syria ruled by Assad…….
Israeli media reports that defense minister Israel Katz has ordered the Israeli military to strike at targets inside Syria including “surface-to-air missiles, air defence systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets, and coast-to-sea missiles……. in order that they will not fall in the hands of extremists.””…
In a statement the recently appointed minister said he had ordered the military to create a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terror infrastructure.”
Might it be informative about the future of Syria and its neighbours if we were to know who financed this successful révolution?
Thank you to everyone who engaged with this article.
Some things to bear in mind about HTS:
Despite the $10m reward on his head, their leader has been operating in the open for years. Evidently the US hasn’t considered taking him out to be a priority.
There has been some indirect communication between HTS and the US and other western governments, including on counter-terrorism. HTS has been fighting Al Qaida and ISIS for years.
The technocratic government set up by HTS to administer the northwest has become fairly widely accepted. The UN has a permanent office in Idlib and external aid, education and health agencies have all been coordinating with it.
Syrians are as suspicious of HTS as anyone else. But outsiders are in no position to complain about a hypothetical new government without addressing the fact that almost all Syrians considered Assad’s regime to be the worst possible scenario. Almost no one, in the end, was willing to fight for him. The rebels were welcomed into settlements across the country, including those populated by minorities.
My biggest fear is probably that Turkey / the Turkish-backed SNA might pick more fights with the Kurdish SDF/PKK. We’ve seen some of this in Manbij, although that was an Arab-majority city captured from ISIS by the SDF and left to them to administer by the Assad regime. It was never a Kurdish-majority area. It is still worrying. But it would be wrong to ignore all the many positive things that are happening.
On March 21, 2020, Robert Fisk wrote: Because we hate, loathe and demonise Saddam or Gaddafi or Assad, we are sure that they will be dethroned and that the blue skies of freedom will shine down upon their broken lands.
Bashar al-Assad, far from being overthrown, has emerged as the biggest winner of the Syrian war. Still, we insist that he must go. Still we intend to try Syrian war criminals – and rightly so – but the Syrian regime has emerged above the blood-tide of war intact, alive, and with the most reliable superpower ally any Middle East state could have: the Kremlin.
In other words, Syria is steadily resuming the role it maintained before the 2011 revolt.
This wasn’t what we in the west imagined then, when our ambassadors in Damascus were encouraging the Syrian street demonstrators to keep up their struggle against the regime; indeed, when they specifically told the protestors not even to talk or negotiate with the Assad government.
But those were in the days before two crazed elements emerged to smash all our assumptions, sowing fear and distrust across the Middle East: Donald Trump and Isis.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-war-bashar-al-assad-donald-trump-saudi-middle-east-robert-fisk-a9189746.html
On Saturday Tom Arms wrote: ‘HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.’
HTS is ISIS.
@John Waller “HTS is ISIS”
ISIS was / is a group with a largely international senior leadership with an international agenda. And one that not only was proud of its extremism, but used it as a recruiting tool and as a weapon of influence.
HTS is a group with a Syrian leadership and a Syrian agenda. It has explicitly disavowed any international aims. In its messaging it has been inclusive of all of Syria’s ethnicities and sects.
Whether you believe its messaging and/or whether you consider its agenda to be more or less positive than ISIS’, it is a very different organisation.
You should also be aware that HTS has waged war against ISIS for years and it has NOT exterminated the Christians living in Idleb, which it has ruled for several years.
I don’t know whether its recent messaging will be followed through in practice. Many, many Syrians are clearly very sceptical. We will see. But don’t make the mistake of thinking HTS and ISIS are the same.
@John McHugo. Yes, and I am one of those whose Christian beliefs have shaped his liberal values. But I also am a staunch believer in the separation of church and state for the reasons I have stated before. For the benefit of those who don’t wish to scroll back to my previous article/comments: I am opposed to any government that bases its legitimacy on a special relationship with a Higher Being. That is because God is by nature infallible. A government that bases its legitimacy on a relationship with God claims infallibility by association. Humans are not infallible. Governments certainly are not!