France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

The allegations against Trump are certainly much, much more damaging to the country than the crimes of Hunter Biden: tax evasion and lying on his application for a gun license.

President Biden made a point of projecting himself as the saviour of the rule of law. He distanced himself from federal prosecutor Jack Smith and refused to protect Hunter. “I will not pardon my son,” he said. Then he did.

Biden supporters say he was forced to issue the pardon by Trump’s threats to weaponise the FBI and Department of Justice to attack his political enemies, including the “Biden crime family.” Regardless of the reason, the saviour of the rule of law, has ended up by adding a fresh coat of tarnish to the “shining city on the hill.”

South Korea

“The Coup that Backfired” could be the title of the future film of this week’s political events in South Korea.

It started at 10pm on Tuesday when President Yoon Suk-yeol interrupted broadcasts to announce that he was declaring martial law. The country, he said, was under imminent threat of attack from communist North Korea. Following North Korean missile tests and the Putin-Kim bromance, the threat seemed all too plausible, especially for those born before the end of military rule 44 years ago.

But as night turned to early morning and early morning turned to dawn, deeper domestic political considerations emerged as playing a bigger role. The president’s approval rating had slumped to 16 percent. His reputation has been especially damaged by the activities of his wife Kim Keon-hee who is being investigated for a number of scandals involving stock market manipulation, tax evasion, ethics violations and failing to declare luxury gifts.

There have also been unsubstantiated claims about a murky private life linked to her penchant for plastic surgery. South Korea, by the way, is tied with Colombia for the title of the most surgically-enhanced population.

Wifely scandals have been exacerbated by a deep polarisation within South Korean politics that mirrors its American backers. President Yoon is from the conservative People’s Power Party (PPP). but the unicameral legislature (aka Gukhoe) is dominated by the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). This was the party led by the former president Moon Jae-in.

The idea that the martial law declaration had more to do with domestic than foreign threats gained credence when Washington and Tokyo denied any knowledge of an imminent attack from the north. On top of that, President Yoon, then elaborated on his original declaration that there was also a threat from “an enemy from within”—ie, the opposition.

Said Opposition refused to accept the martial law declaration. 190 legislators–  enough for a majority—managed to break past military guards to enter the national assembly building and force the president to reverse his declaration. President Yoon now faces impeachment.

Republic of Ireland

The Republic of Ireland (Eire) has bucked the worldwide trend and voted for more of the same.

Rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have once again come out on top on a low turn-out (57 percent). Neither party,however, have secured an outright majority. The election followed a coalition involving both parties. That will be repeated, but without the support of the Green Party who dropped to just one seat in the Dail (parliament).

Their most likely partner this time around is the Labour Party. Simon Harris, leader of Fine Gael is expected to continue as Taoiseach (prime minister).

The biggest losers of the night were Sinn Fein who were hindered by being a single-issue party: unification. The issue remains high on the discussion agenda for most Irish, just not at election time. The result was that Sinn Fein—which had been billed as a government-in-waiting—dropped to 19 percent of the vote and 39 seats.

For most voters the two main issues were the economy and immigration. The former is a potential future problem for whomever heads the next Irish government. The country has enjoyed a period of prosperity thanks to low corporate taxes drawing in big-name American multinationals. This policy will be severely tested if Donald Trump goes ahead with promised tariffs and corporate tax cuts.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".