Tag Archives: ballots and bullets

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
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  • Nigel Quinton
    @Paul why do you say this will be a return to two party politics? Even if Reform diminish, surely Labour and Tory are now shadows of their former selves? LibDem...
  • Chris Cory
    @Jana. It would seem that all you require of a democracy is a vote every 5 years and that any result it throws up is fine and shows our democracy is in good ...
  • Jana
    @Chris Cory “ we have a crisis of democracy which is manifesting itself in increasing support for extremists on the left and right” No, it is not a cris...
  • Matt (Bristol)
    I wasn't sure whether I agreed with Matthew, but I damn well agree with Chris Cory....
  • FS People
    So it does sound like the view across the board is defence of the status quo....