Tag Archives: incumbency effect

Stephen Tall

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

By Stephen Tall | Mon 29th September 2014 - 6:15 pm

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the party is defending against the Tories, and 5 against Labour. You can see the full results here .

Here are the headline findings:

  • Of the 20 Lib Dem-held seats polled, the Lib Dems would retain just 6.
  • The Tories would gain 7 and Labour would gain 4. The other 2 would be a tie (though actually a further 5 are statistical ties within the margin of error).
  • The Lib Dems would win neither of their two targets.

    • Continue reading »
    Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , , , , , , and | 37 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

    By Stephen Tall | Mon 4th August 2014 - 9:00 am

    Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

    It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

    Continue reading »
    Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
    Advert

    Recent Comments

    • Simon Robinson
      It's good to have an MP putting herself forward for this. The manifesto seems a bit vague though. All good thoughts and nothing you can really disagree with, b...
    • Robin Bennett
      I am sure Alan will have the sympathies of all of us. The situation is sad and frustrating. Forgive me for making one small point, Alan: you said that 40 Ho...
    • Jonathan Brown
      @George - me too. I know that not everyone is happy about this, but it's perfectly reasonable policy and I think all care is being taken to try to reassure thos...
    • George Thomas
      It follows the position of what I believe is a majority of UK population of supporting Israel but being against these unlawful settlements. Maybe not brave in t...
    • David Le Grice
      I don't get your point. Starmer's problem was that he had no charisma or any broader understanding of how to be popular. Boris Johnson managed to deliver the ...