Tag Archives: sophomore surge

Stephen Tall

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

By Stephen Tall | Mon 29th September 2014 - 6:15 pm

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the party is defending against the Tories, and 5 against Labour. You can see the full results here .

Here are the headline findings:

  • Of the 20 Lib Dem-held seats polled, the Lib Dems would retain just 6.
  • The Tories would gain 7 and Labour would gain 4. The other 2 would be a tie (though actually a further 5 are statistical ties within the margin of error).
  • The Lib Dems would win neither of their two targets.

    • Continue reading »
    Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , , , , , , and | 37 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

    By Stephen Tall | Mon 4th August 2014 - 9:00 am

    Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

    It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

    Continue reading »
    Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
    Advert

    Recent Comments

    • Peter Davies
      "Can we amend the annual Budget, or even reject it". We could and probably should put forward amendments. Unless they were very bad amendments, we wouldn't get ...
    • Jason Connor
      No that's right. There is no written constitution. Referenda enable people to have their say on decisions which fundamentally change the country's direction suc...
    • Jason Connor
      Try and get Tim Farron on the media rounds so the water scandal and the 5 action points are widely publicised. It's always good to hear more from Tim Farron....
    • Mohammed Amin
      I have just read the full article, and recommend it....
    • PM
      @ Mick, "Referenda are not really part of the UK constitution and we should have nothing to do with them" What is actually part of the constitut...