Tag Archives: sophomore surge

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the party is defending against the Tories, and 5 against Labour. You can see the full results here .

Here are the headline findings:

  • Of the 20 Lib Dem-held seats polled, the Lib Dems would retain just 6.
  • The Tories would gain 7 and Labour would gain 4. The other 2 would be a tie (though actually a further 5 are statistical ties within the margin of error).
  • The Lib Dems would win neither of their two targets.
  • Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , , , , , , and | 37 Comments

    Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

    Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

    It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

    Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments

    Recent Comments

    • User AvatarManfarang 19th Mar - 12:20am
      So I am an absent minded professor ! Without the beard and sandals. Bring back the News Chronicle albeit as an internet version.
    • User AvatarJoeB 18th Mar - 11:06pm
      Michael BG, the loan is provided by the government and administered by Serco. The current rate of support for mortgage interest the government will pay...
    • User AvatarJoeB 18th Mar - 10:44pm
      Peter, the current account deficit is financed by the Capital account (financial account in the UK). The capital account measures transfer in assets and liabilities....
    • User AvatarSimon Banks 18th Mar - 9:59pm
      Some of these situations pose no great difficulties. If a human weights decisions in beauty contests or job interviews or university place decisions against Black...
    • User AvatarRoland 18th Mar - 9:36pm
      @Micheal BG >I note that the Lovemoney article talks of an interest rate of 2.2% not your 1.5%. The DWP website quotes a current figure...
    • User AvatarRoland 18th Mar - 8:53pm
      @Micheal BG - I can find no credible reference that says Serco is the loan provider, only that as said in the article, Serco were...