Tag Archives: sophomore surge

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the party is defending against the Tories, and 5 against Labour. You can see the full results here .

Here are the headline findings:

  • Of the 20 Lib Dem-held seats polled, the Lib Dems would retain just 6.
  • The Tories would gain 7 and Labour would gain 4. The other 2 would be a tie (though actually a further 5 are statistical ties within the margin of error).
  • The Lib Dems would win neither of their two targets.
  • Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , , , , , , and | 37 Comments

    Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

    Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

    It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

    Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
    Advert



    Recent Comments

    • User AvatarGeoffrey Dron 21st Nov - 7:44pm
      Is LD policy on EU membership 'remain' or 'remain and reform'? If the latter, what reforms are essential?
    • User AvatarDavid Raw 21st Nov - 6:38pm
      @ Bill le Breton "there now are circumstances in which we would support a Johnson minority government." If that happens that's me gone for good...
    • User AvatarRossMcL 21st Nov - 6:35pm
      Bill - if there is a hung parliament we can vote on things issue by issue. So, if the Tories are the largest party they...
    • User AvatarMartin 21st Nov - 6:35pm
      The policy always was that the Party would support a new referendum if proposed by another party. To me this seemed more obviously aimed at...
    • User AvatarBill le Breton 21st Nov - 6:01pm
      David, WA = The withdrawal agreement PD = The Political Declaration on future UK/EU relationship WAB = The Withdrawal Agreement Bill
    • User AvatarBill le Breton 21st Nov - 5:57pm
      It is not 'lofty theorising'. Last night the party 'pivoted' away from Revoke. The pivot is that there now are circumstances in which we would...