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Stephen Tall

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

By Stephen Tall | Mon 4th August 2014 - 9:00 am

Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
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    I do think kindness is a good quality, and we need more of it in politics, but attaching 'kindness' to particular policies is more complex than I think you ackn...
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    213 votes across 5 seats. Hard to see a positive here....
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    @Tim - Yes I saw the source and looked at it though it didn't make a lot of sense given my level of knowledge of this. But taking that as correct I was curio...
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