Tag Archives: tim smith

Stephen Tall

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

By Stephen Tall | Mon 4th August 2014 - 9:00 am

Lib Dems winning hereWith the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour MPs.

It’s this effect which, Lib Dems hope, will enable the party to buck the national trend at the next election. It is, however, limited to those seats where the current MP will …

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 16 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • Jack Meredith
    @Matt (Bristol( WOW, you literally did call it!...
  • PM
    @ Mick, We agree that the triple lock should be maintained . We disagree that the burden should fall mainly on the younger generation. This is what your " w...
  • David Allen
    Selfish comment: I'm 76, healthy for now, live in a small village, couldn't easily cope without a car. One day, I might become unable to drive. Then, despite ...
  • Peter Davies
    Driverless cars are not just a replacement for Black Cabs which make up a small proportion of the hire market. They will replace minicabs first but expect them ...
  • Peter Davies
    "A 2025 study in Traffic Injury Prevention found Waymo’s San Francisco any-injury crash rate was 0.88 per million miles against a human benchmark of 8.02, an ...