Tag Archives: Central Intelligence Agency

CIA

Why did CIA Director John Ratcliffe fly to Moscow? It definitely was not the “semi-routine” visit that Donald Trump claims.

The last time the head of the Central Intelligence Agency visited the Russian capital was in November 2021 – and that was hardly routine.

A study of the available reporting and surrounding circumstances point to a similar reason—with a few additional twists. The first reason is that American and British intelligence are reported to have picked up indications that Putin is considering testing NATO’s Article 5 commitment by taking some sort of action against a NATO country. The most likely target is one of the Baltic states.

America’s stock of Patriot interceptors in Europe has reportedly fallen to critically low levels because of their enormous consumption in the Iran war. If Moscow believes Washington is militarily distracted and European air defences depleted, Putin could conceivably think this is an unusually favourable moment to test NATO.

Another complementary reason for the visit is likely to be Ukraine. Ratcliffe is reported to have given his Russian counterpart—Sergei Naryshkin–a distinctly pessimistic assessment of Russia’s position and urged Moscow to enter serious negotiations before its military and economic circumstances deteriorate further.

Iran would also have been discussed. Russia is closely aligned with Tehran, and Washington is trying to increase pressure on Iran while pushing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz back towards normal. CBS reports that Ratcliffe warned Moscow about further sanctions connected with the Strait. Reuters says Russian support for Iran was among the subjects discussed.

In November 2021 President Joe Biden sent CIA director to Moscow to warn Putin not to invade Ukraine. In August 2026 President Donald Trump sent John Ratcliffe on a similar mission. Putin ignored the first CIA director. Why should Washington believe he will listen to the second?

Mid term elections

Time for some detailed analysis of US mid-term election data. Using Cook Political Report, one of America’s best established non-partisan election analysis organisations, the figures show the Democrats in pole position to win the House and with a 50/50 chance to gain control of the Senate.

But let’s take a closer look. Republicans currently have a five-seat majority in the House of Representatives. This means that the Democrats need to win only three seats to gain control. Analysts reckon that they have a chance of gaining 2-10 seats. This means that at the bottom end of the range the Republican retain control with the narrow majority of one and at the top the Democrats have a solid 15-seat majority.

As of 25 August, Cook reckons that there are 21 congressional election races that could be considered toss-ups worth closely watching. They are: two Republican-held seats in Arizona; one Republican-held seat in California; one Republican-held seat in Colorado; two Democrat-held seats in Florida; one Democrat-held seat in Washington state; two Republican-held seats in Iowa; two Republican-held seats in Michigan; one Republican-held seat in New Jersey;  one Republican-held seat in New York; one Republican-held seat in Wisconsin; one Democratic-held seat in Ohio; three Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania; one Democratic-held seat in Texas and one Republican-held seat in Virginia.

A quick count of the above reveals that of the 21 toss-ups 16 are currently held by worried Republicans. This means that the Republicans are defending more than three times as many toss-up seats as the Democrats.

Now for the Senate where the Republicans currently have a healthier 53 seats and the Democrats 47. Therefore, the Democrats need a net gain of four to win control.  There are seven Senate seats which Cook regards as marginal. They are: Alaska (Republican), Iowa (Republican), Maine (Republican), Michigan (Democrat), Ohio (Republican), Texas (Republican) and North Carolina (Republican).

Cook reckons that North Carolina has moved from marginal Republican to what they call “lean Democrat.” Texas is heading that way with Attorney General Ken Paxton trailing the Democrat James Talarico candidate. The campaigns of the Democrat candidates in Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Alaska have all been given a boost by Trump’s trade war with Canada as the tariffs both sides have imposed will have a big impact on the economies of all those states.