Tag Archives: core vote strategy

Dimitri Roberto

Why aren’t the Liberal Democrats doing better?

By Dimitri Roberto | Thu 19th February 2026 - 12:41 pm

The Liberal Democrats and the need to move away from the ‘Core Vote Strategy’

 After the catastrophe of 2015, when the Liberal Democrats were reduced to eight seats and 8% of the vote, the party needed a serious strategic overhaul. The 20% core vote strategy developed by Mark Pack and David Howarth provided it. It argued that survival required cultivating and appealing to a voting bloc rooted in a younger, more tolerant and pro-remain base. And that foundation could carry the party through difficult cycles.

At the time, that was exactly what we needed. The result has been 72 Liberal Democrat MPs, a series of impressive local by-election results, and institutional power to present as essential to any coalition of the left-centre. It’s what attracted young professionals like me, looking to an alternative to the chaos in Westminster, to join in the first place.

But strategy cannot remain stagnant. The political environment of 2026 is radically different from that of 2015. Voters are simply less loyal to parties, demographics are shifting, and the two main parties are being replaced by insurgent movements. The Labour Party for example has fallen sharply in national vote share since the 2024 election, dropping from 35% to around 21% in recent polling. And the Conservative party faces extinction on the right. And yet the Liberal Democrats have barely moved still hovering around 13% in the latest polls. As the third largest party we should be filling that void.

So what’s holding us back?

The obstacle facing the Liberal Democrats today is not the absence of a clearly defined ideology. It is the absence of perceived viability and the failure to fully capitalise on systemic volatility.

New polling from YouGov, seems to answer some of the puzzle. Among Britons who do not currently intend to vote Liberal Democrat: 31% say they simply don’t know enough about the party and 26% believe voting Lib Dem would be a wasted vote nationally.

The good news from this data is that voters are not primarily worried about our values, the party has broad appeal. They are worried about whether we can win.

The benefits of a broader election strategy

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Posted in Op-eds | 33 Comments
Oliver Craven

Why is our “Core Vote” only middle class metropolitan remainers?

By Oliver Craven | Mon 12th February 2018 - 8:03 pm

Mark Pack and David Howarth recently wrote the second version of their “core vote” strategy, where they believe we should target those they deem to share our values, usually middle class metropolitan remainers. They believe that we need to tailor our message to these people so they vote for us during the good times and the bad. This report is linked here. Any reference to the report in this article is from this link.

While Mark Pack and David Howarth have the right idea with the plan to build a core vote, they seem to fall into the trap that only those groups that currently vote for us in any significant way share our values. They decide that 38% of the electorate can be defined as “open and tolerant”, based mainly on their answer to the question of how much immigration there should be as well as a range of other questions though these are noted to be less important. I would argue that this narrow way of looking at the question excludes many who would consider voting for the party if we merely appealed to them correctly.

I hesitate to use the term “legitimate concerns” around immigration, as usually they are not concerns based on immigration at all. They are usually concerns about housing, jobs, education and health and the provision of these as the population increases. The lack of provision is not the fault of migrants, it is the fault of a government failing to plan for the future of our vital public services.

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 79 Comments
Paul Holmes

Core vote: A dangerous mirage?

By Paul Holmes | Fri 25th September 2015 - 11:42 am

Currently the need to establish a core vote seems, akin to motherhood and apple pie, to be so obviously a good thing that it cannot be questioned. However, at the risk of upsetting friends and others alike, let me raise some concerns.

Firstly, there is the simple truism that in a First Past the Post system you cannot win by playing to your core vote, even if you have one. That is a lesson Republicans and Democrats in the USA have to relearn from time to time. It is a lesson the Conservatives had to learn after Thatcher when Ian Duncan Smith, Michael Howard and even William Hague pandered to the right. It is a lesson Labour had to all so painfully learn after the Bennite manifesto of 1983 dubbed the ‘longest suicide note in history’. The Corbynistas may have to learn it all over again.

Secondly, how long does it take to ‘build a core vote’? The affluent Conservative core vote has always existed with the addition of a section of the working class following astute action by Disraeli from his passing of the Second Reform Act of 1867 onwards. Labour’s core vote –primarily lower income, urban and unionised- was uniting behind them over a century ago; especially after the Liberal Party collapse left the field entirely clear after 1922. How long would it take the Liberal Democrats to establish the loyalty of a similar core vote and at what cost? Some have suggested we should pursue our core even if it puts off ‘mainstream’ and/or floating voters. Really? We should fight elections not to try and win but to try and build a long term core vote?

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 34 Comments
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