Author Archives: Dimitri Roberto

The Liberal Democrats and the need to move away from the ‘Core Vote Strategy’

 After the catastrophe of 2015, when the Liberal Democrats were reduced to eight seats and 8% of the vote, the party needed a serious strategic overhaul. The 20% core vote strategy developed by Mark Pack and David Howarth provided it. It argued that survival required cultivating and appealing to a voting bloc rooted in a younger, more tolerant and pro-remain base. And that foundation could carry the party through difficult cycles.

At the time, that was exactly what we needed. The result has been 72 Liberal Democrat MPs, a series of impressive local by-election results, and institutional power to present as essential to any coalition of the left-centre. It’s what attracted young professionals like me, looking to an alternative to the chaos in Westminster, to join in the first place.

But strategy cannot remain stagnant. The political environment of 2026 is radically different from that of 2015. Voters are simply less loyal to parties, demographics are shifting, and the two main parties are being replaced by insurgent movements. The Labour Party for example has fallen sharply in national vote share since the 2024 election, dropping from 35% to around 21% in recent polling. And the Conservative party faces extinction on the right. And yet the Liberal Democrats have barely moved still hovering around 13% in the latest polls. As the third largest party we should be filling that void.

So what’s holding us back?

The obstacle facing the Liberal Democrats today is not the absence of a clearly defined ideology. It is the absence of perceived viability and the failure to fully capitalise on systemic volatility.

New polling from YouGov, seems to answer some of the puzzle. Among Britons who do not currently intend to vote Liberal Democrat: 31% say they simply don’t know enough about the party and 26% believe voting Lib Dem would be a wasted vote nationally.

The good news from this data is that voters are not primarily worried about our values, the party has broad appeal. They are worried about whether we can win.

The benefits of a broader election strategy