While attending a business conference at the Belfry in Sutton Coldfield, I received the news that Israel had demolished a six-tower complex.Among these towers, the infamous Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, was reportedly taking refuge in a bunker situated 80 feet underground. The Israeli military employed F-15 jets equipped with bunker-buster bombs to execute this strike, effectively targeting the underground stronghold. My immediate reaction was one of concern, fearing for the region’s stability and the safety of its people. In that moment, I couldn’t help but sense that this conflict might become Israel’s “Dirty War” (La Sale Guerre). Unlike the approach of Charles de Gaulle, Netanyahu seemed to have found his “Ho Chi Minh” in Nasrallah; however, the question remains – how many “Ho Chi Minhs” does Hezbollah harbor?
This episode has shed light on the reality that the “Axis of Resistance” comprises ragtag militias united by a single factor: ideology. Israel’s current strategy relies heavily on “shock and awe,” yet history suggests that such tactics rarely yield long-term success, even in Gaza, which remains tightly controlled by Israel. Despite being surrounded, Hamas continues to operate. It’s important to clarify that I’m not glorifying these groups but rather examining the unfolding situation to understand Israel’s potential trajectory. From my perspective, the outlook is worrying.
Israel stands as the sole democracy in the region, sharing values and interests with the United Kingdom, making it a close ally. Yet, since this conflict began, Israel appears to be playing into Tehran’s hands. The fact is, neither Iran nor its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” possess the military strength to take on Israel head-to-head. Still, to borrow a quote from Ho Chi Minh: “The tiger may not stand still and allow the elephant to crush him. But the tiger will leap upon the elephant, and then jump back into the jungle; and as the elephant pursues him, the tiger will attack again and again until the elephant bleeds to death.” This analogy accurately depicts Iran’s strategy: bleeding Israel economically and militarily through indirect means.