While attending a business conference at the Belfry in Sutton Coldfield, I received the news that Israel had demolished a six-tower complex.Among these towers, the infamous Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, was reportedly taking refuge in a bunker situated 80 feet underground. The Israeli military employed F-15 jets equipped with bunker-buster bombs to execute this strike, effectively targeting the underground stronghold. My immediate reaction was one of concern, fearing for the region’s stability and the safety of its people. In that moment, I couldn’t help but sense that this conflict might become Israel’s “Dirty War” (La Sale Guerre). Unlike the approach of Charles de Gaulle, Netanyahu seemed to have found his “Ho Chi Minh” in Nasrallah; however, the question remains – how many “Ho Chi Minhs” does Hezbollah harbor?

This episode has shed light on the reality that the “Axis of Resistance” comprises ragtag militias united by a single factor: ideology. Israel’s current strategy relies heavily on “shock and awe,” yet history suggests that such tactics rarely yield long-term success, even in Gaza, which remains tightly controlled by Israel. Despite being surrounded, Hamas continues to operate. It’s important to clarify that I’m not glorifying these groups but rather examining the unfolding situation to understand Israel’s potential trajectory. From my perspective, the outlook is worrying.

Israel stands as the sole democracy in the region, sharing values and interests with the United Kingdom, making it a close ally. Yet, since this conflict began, Israel appears to be playing into Tehran’s hands. The fact is, neither Iran nor its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” possess the military strength to take on Israel head-to-head. Still, to borrow a quote from Ho Chi Minh: “The tiger may not stand still and allow the elephant to crush him. But the tiger will leap upon the elephant, and then jump back into the jungle; and as the elephant pursues him, the tiger will attack again and again until the elephant bleeds to death.” This analogy accurately depicts Iran’s strategy: bleeding Israel economically and militarily through indirect means.

We see this impact on Israel’s economy. Moody’s recently downgraded Israel’s credit outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing concerns about the ongoing conflict’s effect on economic stability. Israel had enjoyed impressive economic growth, expanding by 14.1% in the first quarter of 2023, but the war has slashed growth projections to around 2%, down from an expected 3.5%. The prolonged instability now poses a significant risk of a recession, straining key sectors and potentially increasing borrowing costs in the future.

Israel must navigate this conflict cautiously, as groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas are indifferent to civilian casualties, embracing “martyrdom” over perceived humiliation. For peace to take root in the region, we need liberal leadership in Israel, a more progressive stance from Abbas in Palestine, and a comprehensive deal with Iran. Acknowledging Iran’s considerable influence in the region and its position as a leader of the Shia world is crucial. Military might alone will not defeat Hezbollah, Hamas, or Iran. These entities are driven by ideology, and history teaches us that you cannot defeat an ideology through force. Just as Britain signed the Good Friday Agreement to address the conflict in Northern Ireland, Israel and its adversaries will need to come to the negotiating table. I find the current attitudes of Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yahya Sinwar, and Ayatollah Khamenei to be counterproductive. As a Muslim, it frustrates me, but as a human, it pains me even more to witness the loss of innocent lives.

To borrow from the wisdom of Edmund Blackadder: “We’ve moved our headquarters one inch closer to Berlin. So now we are 35 miles behind the front line instead of 35 miles behind the front line.” This reflects the current state of affairs, with Khamenei attempting to advance towards Jerusalem, while Netanyahu seems fixated on extending Israel’s reach towards Damascus, Beirut, Gaza, Baghdad, and Sana’a.

I’ll conclude with a verse from the Punjabi Sufi Mystic and Saint, Bulleh Shah:

“Raja ramm raja ramm, Duniya sab lutti kamm.”

“The kings keep on ruling, while the common people suffer and lose everything.”

* Mo Waqas is a vice chair of the Liberal Democrats' Racial Diversity Campaign and was the PPC for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East.