Tag Archives: politicshome.com

Congratulations, Jo Baker: Lib Dem Researcher of the Year!

Huge congrats to Jo Baker – researcher for Mark Williams, Lib Dem MP for Ceredigion – for winning The House Magazine and PoliticsHome.com’s Liberal Democrat Researcher of the Year!

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Lib Dems’ half-term report: gold stars from Simon Hughes – and Paul Waugh

Over at PoliticsHome, Paul Waugh has a very positive piece, highlighting the recent series of announcements which bear a distinctive Liberal Democrat stamp:

Today, Nick Clegg can bask in last night’s AV Bill victory, delivering an historic referendum that could possibly see his party in power for a long time.
But the DPM can also celebrate having played a key role in a string of other areas being discussed today. On each issue, you can judge his success by the irritated reaction of the average Tory backbencher.

Paul helpfully lists welfare reform, gay marriage, green policy, growth, the AV referendum and more.

Go …

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Public poll says Cable for Chancellor – how to bank this in real votes?

Vince Cable is the public’s preferred choice for Chancellor, according to a poll by PoliticsHome.

Of the general public polled, 31% chose Vince Cable above George Osborne, Alistair Darling, Ken Clarke, Peter Mandelson and Ed Balls.

The poll also found that 79% of Liberal Democrat voters supported Vince Cable for the job, while Osborne and Darling received much lower levels of support from their own parties’ voters. (Find the full results at PoliticsHome.)

As Iain pointed out yesterday, Vince’s recent recce to the Treasury does raise questions about how he could land the job.

Of course, national polls like this …

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And lo, with one email Nick Clegg’s opinion poll rating did soar

I was rather puzzled by the Sunday Telegrpah’s report today by Melissa Kite on the standing of party leaders, which claimed that Nick Clegg’s net leader performance rating in polling for PoliticsHome had plummeted since last September. Puzzled because that would be way out of line with what the other polls have been saying.

One email exchange with PoliticsHome later and lo, what was reported as a +5% rating in the most recent polling turns out actually to have been a +15% when then suffered a typo.

At +15% the rating not only compares well to Cameron (+12%) and of course …

Posted in Polls | Also tagged and | 3 Comments

Cameron’s confusion over Tory marriage tax plans

It can be hard pre-launching an election campaign, can’t it? Here’s the PoliticsHome rolling news front page from today:

At 3.04 pm, the site reported:

David Cameron said he could not guarantee a Conservative government would be able to offer a tax break to married couples, despite having personally supported such a move. “It’s something within a parliament I would definitely hope to do,” he said, but insisted the state of the public finances prevented him from offering any guarantee. “We’re not able to give people absolute certainty

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Members of the public who believe Lib Dem MPs behaved worst over expenses? ZERO PER CENT

PoliticsHome (yes, I’m still reading it, despite everything) published an interesting poll today, taking the temperature of public opinion on MPs’ expenses, post-Legg:

… suggests that more than half the population believes the recommendations were ‘not tough enough’, 57% have ‘no sympathy whatsoever’ and 60% are as interested in the story as they ever were. The LIberal Democrat MPs are perceived to have behaved the best.

The survey is split down into categories of voter identification – Lib Dem, Labour, Tory, none – and generally there is little marked difference in the attitudes of party supporters:

Posted in Polls | Also tagged and | 12 Comments

YouGov marginals poll: what it means for the Lib Dems

PoliticsHome has today published its YouGov survey of some 240 marginal seats, with a sample of around 35,000 voters, providing the most complete picture of regional polling trends, and likely constituency results. The results are fascinating – but, as with any polls, it comes with health warnings.

The most important is that, even with the large sample size, the number of people in each individual seat is not high enough to give reliable voting intention figures for individual constituencies. This is an especially relevant consideration when looking at Lib Dem MPs and target seats, as the ability of a local party to organise an effective ‘ground-war’ campaign often marks the difference between a successful hold / gain and a near-miss.

For example, the PoliticsHome survey predicts that Chris Huhne’s seat of Eastleigh will be a Tory gain based on the Lib Dem – Tory swing in the south and south-west. However, I will eat my hat (really, I will) if Chris is unseated.

You can find the full survey results here. Let’s have a look at the implications for the Lib Dems.

Posted in General Election and Polls | 30 Comments

Two more Lib Dems quit PoliticsHome panel

I blogged at the weekend about the resignations of three Lib Dem MPs – Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and Lynne Featherstone – from the PoliticsHome ‘insiders’ panel’, the PH100, in protest at the acquisition by Tory deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft of a majority stake in the site.

Today I’ve hear from an impecable source that another Lib Dem MP – not previously publicly listed as a member of the PH100 – has also quit: Chris Huhne. The only other Lib Dem MP publicly listed as a PH100 member is David Laws, and I’ve not yet heard if he’s resigned.

The second Lib Dem to resign from the panel is, erm, me.

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Clegg and Cable resign from PoliticsHome panel in protest at Ashcroft takeover

A minor media spat broke out this week, following the announcement that Lord (Michael) Ashcroft, the Tory deputy chairman who bankrolls the party’s target seats while refusing to say if he pays tax in this country, has bought a majority stake in the political news and commentary aggregator site, PoliticsHome.

This triggered the resignation of the site’s editor-in-chief, Andrew Rawnsley, who issued a public statement arguing that:

It was essential for users of the site that they could feel absolute confidence in the political independence of PoliticsHome. I do not believe that can be compatible with being under the ownership

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CK and Ming are most-missed political big-hitters

PoliticsHome has the low-down:

Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies Campbell are the former political ‘big beasts’ that the public would most like to see more of, according to a new PoliticsHome poll. 1,228 UK adults were shown a list of former political big hitters and asked to tick all of those they would like to see return to prominence.

The two former Lib Dem leaders were the most popular choices, with just over a third of people (thirty four per cent) wishing for Kennedy’s return, and twenty two per cent backing Campbell. Kennedy was the most popular choice among supporters of all political parties and none.

For the record, here’s the list of former big-hitters missed most by Lib Dem supporters, and whom we’d – apparently – like to see more of:

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 7 Comments

Are you only interested in things you agree with?

That looks to be the view of many people according to the findings of the latest PoliticsHome Impact Tracker.

The tracker asks: “Below is a list of news stories that the media have focused on this week. Looking back over the week, please say which stories, if any, have most interested you. You may choose up to three.”

The overall figures show some interesting trends – the top story getting interest was ID cards (with 31%) just beating the story about two police dogs dying in a hot patrol car (29%). Yes, that’s right – a hard political story beat an animal tragedy story for interest from the public. In addition to those two, the renationalisation of the East Coast rail line also got more interest than the ongoing story of Michael Jackson’s death, a finding that raises some interesting questions about some of the media’s editorial judgements.

But what really caught my eye was the variation in the results when looked at by party affiliation. It’s perhaps no surprise that Conservative and Lib Dem supporters were far more likely to find the ID cards story interesting than Labour supporters. After all, they are both more likely to be opposed to ID cards, and generally opponents think ID cards are a much bigger deal than supporters.

It goes on though. Labour and Lib Dem supporters were much more interested in the railway renationalisation than Conservatives; Conservative and Lib Dems were more interested than Labour in the criticism of Michael Martin being given a peerage; Labour and Lib Dems were more interested than Conservatives in the news that George Osborne’s mortgage expense claims are being investigated and so on.

Posted in News and Polls | 3 Comments

The Great Expectations Game

Earlier this week, I blogged about the ‘expectations game’, the way in which post-election analysis can be spun, and speculated that the Lib Dems were being set up for a fall. In fact, though, the reporting of the party’s performance has been generally fair. For instance, here’s Tony Travers in today’s Guardian:

The national equivalent vote share put the Conservatives on 38%, the Liberal Dems on 28%, Labour on 23% and “others” on 11%. Compared with 2008, the Tories are down five points, Labour down one point, the Lib Dems up one point and Others up by

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 29 Comments
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