David Cameron’s speech on immigration has unleashed a wave of criticism and debate, both inside and outside the coalition government.  Although some of the fallout tells us more about the political dilemmas facing coalition partners who must now fight an election campaign against each other than it does about immigration, today’s discussions have neatly illustrated some of the challenges facing the Government on this issue.

The first is how to best engage in the public debate.  David Cameron is right to say that “the role of politicians is to cut through the extremes of this debate & approach the subject sensibly and reasonably”.  He is also right (and the latest in a line of politicians in recent years) to acknowledge the depth of public concerns about immigration – both in relation to jobs and the economy and to the ways in which communities are changing.  But politicians must also acknowledge the risk that high-profile interventions on this issue can legitimise extreme views – it should be of real concern to the Prime Minister that the BNP has described his remarks as a “ceremonial adoption of our policy”.

The second is how to marry the demands of the media and public debate with the realities of policymaking.  The Government is at risk of falling into the same trap that Labour ministers did at various times on this issue, by talking tough without a well thought-through policy.

Whatever the coalition agreement says, the Conservative target to reduce net migration to ‘tens of thousands’ has been a de facto Government objective since the election, and is clearly the driving force behind current immigration policy.  It is also looking increasingly difficult to meet (net migration was over 220,000 in the year to June 2010), and won’t actually address the concerns which Mr Cameron outlines in his speech – net migration could be zero and people might still be very worried about immigration, for example if a million people came to the UK while a million others left.

Public concerns can only be met by a comprehensive approach to policy which tackles the underlying drivers of those concerns – and this is not what we see from the Government so far.  So welfare reform is part of the picture with respect to economic migration, but so are low wages and insecure employment; it’s right to expect migrants who settle in the UK to speak English, but this sits uncomfortably with cuts which are drastically reducing the availability of English classes for migrants; the local impacts of migration on some communities are real, but the Government has axed the Migration Impact Fund that used to help deal with some of these.

We also need to recognise that the world has changed – it isn’t possible to simply turn back the clock to the 80s or 90s, and the Government should not set this expectation.  This isn’t to say that immigration can’t be controlled – it can, but not in the way suggested by the Government’s net migration target.

The third challenge is a fundamental trade off between the Government’s objectives on immigration and on the economy.  The immigration policies which the Government is introducing in order to meet its target will cause economic harm – the disagreement between David Cameron and Vince Cable on this issue illustrates the very real tension that the Government faces on this.  The Migration Advisory Committee estimates that skilled immigration for work may have to be cut by up to 80% by the end of this Parliament in order to meet the Government’s target – something that cannot be done without having substantial impacts on business (and public services).  Recently-announced changes to student visas will significantly reduce the number of legitimate international students coming to the UK, with serious consequences for the UK’s highly-successful education sector.

If David Cameron is serious about tackling the economic, social and political challenges raised by immigration, that is to be welcomed, but the Government’s policies do not so far provide reasons for optimism that he will succeed.

Sarah Mulley is Associate Director at the Institute for Public Policy Research www.ippr.org

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