The LDV Election Night Live-Blog: 1.30 – 3.00 pm

2.55 am

More bad news … Lib Dems have failed to take Swansea West and Liverpool Wavertree and Totnes.

We have HELD Taunton. And there’s a recount in Ashfield.

2.50 am

Jo Swinson has held Dunbartonshire East.

Confirmation of the LIB DEM LOSS in Harrogate and Knaresborough, with a large 9.1% swing from Lib Dem to Tory:

Conservative 24,305 45.7% (+9.8)
Claire Kelley Liberal Democrat 23,266 43.8% (-8.4)
Labour 3,413 6.4% (-2.7)

2.47 am

The Tories’ Jeremy Hunt holds in Surrey South West, with an 8.6% swing from Lib Dem to Tory.

2.43 am

Chris Huhne HOLDS Eastleigh.

Confirmation of the Lib Dem GAIN in Eastbourne, with 4% swing from Tory to Lib Dem on 67% turnout:

Stephen Lloyd Liberal Democrat 24,658 47.3% (+5.6)
Conservative 21,223 40.7% (-2.3)
Labour 2,497 4.8% (-6.0)

2.40 am

Here’s David Heath’s victory in Somerton and Frome, and for once he has a majority in four figures (he’s held it with a 3-figure majority since 1997):

David Heath Liberal Democrat 28,793 47.5% (+3.8)
Conservative 26,976 44.5% (+1.9)
Labour 2,675 4.4% (-6.4)

2.36 am

Labour hold in Glasgow North, another Lib Dem target, despite increasing our vote:

Labour 13,181 44.5% (+5.1)
Katy Gordon Liberal Democrat 9,283 31.3% (+3.9)
Scottish National Party 3,530 11.9% (-1.0)

We’ve also missed out on Swansea West, again despite a decent 5.7% swing from Labour to Lib Dem:

Labour 12,335 34.7% (-7.2)
Peter May Liberal Democrat 11,831 33.2% (+4.3)
Conservative 7,407 20.8% (+4.8)

2.29 am

Confirmed that Mark Williams has HELD Ceredigion, with a huge 10% swing. Also reported that David Heath has held on once again in Somerton and Frome.

However reported that Lib Dems have LOST Harrogate to the Tories – that’s Phil Willis’s old seat.

2.24 am

This is the big drama … the GOOD NEWS …
LIB DEM GAIN in Eastbourne: wonderful.

BUT THE BAD NEWS OF THE NIGHT … Lembit Opik loses Montgomeryshire: that’s devastating. Huge 13.2% swing from Lib Dem to Tory in Lloyd George’s old seat:

Conservative 13,976 41.3% (+13.8)
Lembit Opik Liberal Democrat 12,792 37.8% (-12.5)
Plaid Cymru 2,802 8.3% (+1.3)

2.20 am

Confirmation of Willie Rennie’s defeat in Dunfermline & West Fife – a big swing of 8% from Labout to Lib Dem, but it’s not enough to retain the seat:

Labour 22,639 46.3% (-1.2)
Willie Rennie Liberal Democrat 17,169 35.1% (+14.9)
Scottish National Party 5,201 10.6% (-8.3)

2.16 am

Unconfirmed reports that Lembit Opik may have lost Montgomeryshire.

2.14 am

I think it’s fair to say this is turning into a night of deep disappointment for the Lib Dems – all the more so for the high hopes we had.

2.08 am

LIB DEM NEAR-MISS in Newport East. A good swing of 8.3% from Labour to Lib Dem, but it’s not enough:

Labour 12,744 37.0% (-8.2)
Ed Townsend Liberal Democrat 11,094 32.2% (+8.5)
Conservative 7,918 23.0% (-0.5)

And there’s some quite grim news in Richmond, too, where it sounds like it’s going to the wire, with Tories looking optimistic.

2.05 am

LIB DEM HOLD North East Fife (Ming Campbell), but with 5% swing from Lib Dem to Tory:

Menzies Campbell Liberal Democrat 17,763 44.3% (-7.8)
Conservative 8,715 21.8% (+2.3)
Labour 6,869 17.1% (+4.4)

2.01 pm

LIB DEM LOSS in Dunfermline. Wllie Rennie has been defeated 🙁

Guardian reports:

Oliver Letwin is safe in West Dorset, I’m told. He had a notional majority of 2,461 over the Lib Dems and there was speculation that he was in trouble.

1.54 pm

The Lib Dems have missed out on Wrexham, another long-shot hope:

Labour 12,161 36.9% (-9.2)
Tom Rippeth Liberal Democrat 8,503 25.8% (+2.2)
Conservative 8,375 25.4% (+5.4)

A good swing of 5.7% from Labour to Lib Dem, but the rise in the Tory vote has kept Labour in.

As with Guildford, so with Newbury – a crushing defeat, sadly, for the wonderful David Rendel:

Conservative 33,057 56.4% (+7.4)
David Rendel Liberal Democrat 20,809 35.5% (-7.1)
Labour 2,505 4.3% (-1.7)

1.46 pm

Bad news for Lib Dems in Guildford – it’s a Tory hold, with a big 6.5% swing from Lib Dem to Tory. Bad luck Sue Doughty 🙁

Conservative 29,618 53.3% (+9.9)
Sue Doughty Liberal Democrat 21,836 39.3% (-4.0)
Labour 2,812 5.1% (-4.8)

And we’re hearing the news from Watford is not optimistic, either.

1.42 pm

LIB DEM HOLD in Yeovil – great result for David Laws:

David Laws Liberal Democrat 31,843 55.7% (+4.2)
Conservative 18,807 32.9% (-1.2)
Labour 2,991 5.2% (-5.3)

Another effective Labour squeeze. 69% turnout, with 3% swing from Tory to Lib Dem.

1.38 pm

Big victory for Gordon Brown in his constituency at least, with a 3.3% swing from SNP to Labour in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.

1.30 pm

City of Durham declaration, a top Lib Dem hope. And it’s a big disappointment, I’m afraid – Labour hold:

Roberta Blackman-Woods Labour 20,496 44.3 -2.9
Carol Woods Liberal Democrat 17,429 37.7 -2.1
Nick Varley Conservative 6,146 13.3 +3.9

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105 Comments

  • Both Labour and Lib Dems losing votes to the Conservatives. Not Great.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:42am

    Swing of 2.7% to the Lib Dems in Yeovil.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:44am

    Swing to the Lib Dems in Rushcliffe.

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 1:45am

    Coalition, a bill to pass electoral reform (STV), and abolish the unelected Lords, followed by immediate dissolution? OTY, Labour?

    But I fear we will not get the chance. The Tories look to have beaten Labour soundly enough to get an OMaj, or at least enough to deny a Lab/LibD OMaj. Even if they had not, I suspect some of our -ahem – more economic liberal MPs would claim it was somehow not ‘democratic’ to do so, because Labour have been rejected.

    But we may get more Lib Dem MPs – so the long march continues for another generation? Maybe a Coalition with Labour will be more attainable next time the Tories lose. Let’s hope it is soon.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:46am

    Microscopic swing to the Lib Dems in Christchurch.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:47am

    But the Tories hold Guildford with a 7% swing.

  • Very tight in Chesterfield

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 1:53am

    http://www.takebackparliament.com/ – sign the electoral reform petition tonight. Every Lib Dem and Labour and Other supporter should sign.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:53am

    Swing just over 3% from Lib Dems to Tories in Sevenoaks.

  • It’s not looking great is it.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:54am

    Swing 7.3% from Lib Dems to Tories in Newbury. Incredibly variable.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 1:55am

    Very sad for my friend Carol Woods. Would have loved to have seen her finish the job she started back in 2001. Also sorry to see Sue Doughty not get Guildford back. At least there are some crumbs of comfort around the place it seems.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 1:56am

    Labour to Tory swing of only 2.9% in Gedling.

  • Massive swing to the Tories in Newbury, now crossing my fingers with Lewes,

  • Alex Sabine 7th May '10 - 1:58am

    In England, there seems to be a big swing to the Tories, even from a high starting point. Different story in other parts of the UK.

    And yes, I think there has been some pro-Tory tactical voting in some constituencies (eg Putney, where I live) as well as pro-Labour tactical voting by left-leaning Lib Dems in other parts of the country.

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 1:58am

    Edin Sth recount poss tomorrow – ITV

  • There seems to be a trend that the Labour vote doesn’t automatically go Lib Dem, but is just as likely to go Torie.

  • Can’t help thinking that the Tory-press anti-Clegg alarmism eventually had an impact on undecided voters. Particularly in relation to the amnesty and the Euro. A great shame. Now finding myself cheering Labour holds from the Tories as it keeps open the possibility of a hung parliament.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:00am

    5.4% swing to Lib Dems in Canterbury.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:05am

    8.3% swing from Lab to Lib Dem in Durham NW. (Is that new or did I miss it before?)

  • Lost Dunfermaline and West Fife, very sad. Hoping for some good news soon.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:07am

    Hi Bernard.

    I’m the bemused bystander here as you may have heard from your brother. Have to say that I’m not enjoying this!! Never has an election promised so much and then delivered so little.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:08am

    Tiny swing of 1.1% Lab to Tory in Staffs South, with Lib Dems adding 3.3%. Perhaps the Tories have lost personal vote for retiring Tory grandee Patrick Cormack.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:09am

    6% swing Lab to Tory in Exeter.

  • Labour win back Glasgow East.

    My gut feeling is that it seems that Lib Dems will suffer from polling day jitters.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:12am

    3.5% swing Lib Dem to Tory in Norfolk South.

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 2:13am

    Maybe we should call ourselves ‘Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats’ on ballot papers – Labour are joking online that our new recruits from the surge forgot what party they should be voting for. Reasonable hypothesis among the less well informed, I’m afraid to say. Though most of it surely down to a last minute squeeze and Brown’s/Cameron’s better performance/more money in the last few days.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:13am

    Large 9.4% Lab to Tory swing in Kettering.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:14am

    But only 5.5% in Loughborough.

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 2:15am

    Anthony – 3.5% swing Lib Dem to Tory in Norfolk South.

    Damn – I live there!

  • Conservatives have hold West Dorset

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:15am

    4.2% swing Labour to Lib Dem in Barnsley Central.

  • Alex Sabine 7th May '10 - 2:15am

    Looks like Tory advance may be hurting Lib Dems in southern seats after all, while Labour’s vote is proving surprisingly resilient. But it’s still hard to see a consistent picture.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:17am

    7.2% swing Lab to Con in Bishop Auckland.

  • Conservatives hold Eastbourne this is really bad.

  • Andrew Suffield 7th May '10 - 2:18am

    I think the saddest part about all this is the pattern that is emerging: mostly, everything is staying the same. All three major parties campaigned on themes of “change” and “fairness”, and so far this election is showing very little of either. If it keeps on this way, that’s not a mandate for reform, it’s a mandate for another parliament exactly like the last one.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:18am

    Rumours that Ashfield could go Lib Dem….BUT Eastbourne is rumoured to have not fallen.

  • Conservatives also hold Worcester Mid

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:20am

    Swing of 0.05% from Lib Dems to Tories in Wocestershire Mid. (Is this a record?)

  • Montgomeryshire was historically one of our safest seats, i don’t want to place the blame – but that could be down to Lembits antics.

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 2:21am

    Lembit’s lost!

  • Conservatives have gained Montgomeryshire, now that is really bad.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:22am

    Now Lembit is history! What an awful night!

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:22am

    1% swing from Con to Lib Dem in Devon East.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:23am

    Lembit Opik defeated.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:24am

    On a 13.2% swing.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:27am

    1.9% swing Con to Lib Dem in Hertford and Stortford.

  • The BBC have confirmed we’ve held Ceredigion, still no comfort.

  • We’ve gained Eastbourne, but this is still an awful night.

  • This is a weird one. Lord Ashdown on Radio 4 stating that David Heath has held on in Somerton and Frome…

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:29am

    Two neighbouring seats with Lib Dem to Con swings: Aylesbury: 2.1%; Chesham and Amersham: 2.3%.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:32am

    Tories comfortably held Folkestone and Hythe Bernard. No surprise there. Tiny swing from Tories to Lib Dems which is dismal given that Howard stood down. Could I have done better? We’ll never know now.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:33am

    0.1% swing to the Lib Dems from the Tories in Charnwood. (Stephen Dorrell’s seat – didn’t know he was still alive.)

  • I wonder how the Greens faired in Brighton, i wonder if they will suffer what happenened to us.

    Labour hold Swansea West another target missed, we are being squeezed.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:35am

    7.9% swing Lab to Lib Dem in Hull West (Alan Johnson).

  • The Swings have been very random depending on the constituency. Wainting for some more NE results in Newcastle Blaydon and Redcar.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:36am

    Well, it’s great to see that Stephen Lloyd has taken Eastborne! Well done to him!

  • Sorry Lembit losing is not devastating – given the anti politics mood he has played the role of the arrogant buffoon abusing the voters trust – he should have been deselected and we would have held. I am however confident that a new sane candidate will win it back.

  • “lib Dem blogger Tez Burke quoting a Tory councillor as predicting a Lib Dem win in Bradford East.”

    I’ll take anything at the moment even if it is rumours.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:38am

    Can’t really keep up but but I don’t think we’ve had 2.9% swing from Con to Lib Dem in Bridgwater.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:39am

    I would not get too excited about the North East to be honest with you all. Durham not going to Carol Woods sends me a signal of gloom. I would love to be wrong but……

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:43am

    The Huhnee monster is back!

  • Eastleigh is coming up now, Lib Dem a smaller hold than i expected, but on tonight i will take it.

  • Eastleigh held…phew…

  • A good gain In Eastbourne in the end. Yay.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:46am

    Harrogate has gone so a negative position again. What a shame.

  • Confirmation of us losing Harrogate, very sad. The exit polls look correct now.

  • Lembit it’s your fault, if we can hold onto Torbay than you can hold one of the few traditional Lib Dem seats.

  • Recount from Ashfield

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:51am

    Odd result in Birmingham Edgbaston where it is rumoured that Labour have held on….

  • I didn’t catch who was ahead in Ashfield…but somebody was by 190 votes…

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:52am

    Recount in Edgbaston, which would have required only a swing of 2% for the Tories to win.

  • Hold Taunton that’s good on a night like this as it was a real marginal.

  • Taunton Deane Held.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 2:54am

    Jeremy is back as well! He’s the first Lib Dem to hold Taunton I believe!

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 2:58am

    Small swing of 2.6% from Lab to Tory in Broxtowe.

  • Is there any news on the London seats, struggling to find some good news.

  • I’m not surprised about Liverpool Wavetree as the Michael Shields family came out in favour of Labour, Labour our dug in there.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 3:02am

    Chelmsford held by the Tories on a swing of 0.05%.

  • Anthony Aloysius St 7th May '10 - 3:04am

    Surely Cameron should have said more seats than they had won for _18_, not _80_, years?

  • Terry Gilbert 7th May '10 - 3:05am

    Cameron’s misleading soundbite ‘ we have won more seats than at any time since 1920s’ – he means ‘gained’, but he’s spinning it to the ignorant. WE MUST CHALLENGE IT WHEREVER WE SEE HIM QUOTED.
    Cue a FB group? If the Tories are a minority, they must not claim to have won.

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 3:21am

    Anyone know which way around the Ashfield vote is at the moment? Was it Lib Dem over Labour by 190 or the other way round?

  • Toby Philpott 7th May '10 - 3:25am

    Norman Baker back in Lewes thankfully.

  • George Kendall 7th May '10 - 3:30am

    A lot of gloom here, but let’s remember some positives:
    * 2 years ago, I thought we’d lose a slew of seats to a Cameron surge – instead we’re broadly holding our own.
    * Clegg has proven a superb communicator on TV, which will be very useful in the future.
    * Our economic and tax policies have been popular.
    * Labour have shifted further to a policy position in favour of PR.
    * If Cameron forms the government, it may be a pyrrhic victory.
    * We might have the option of a LibLab coalition which delivers PR.

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