14 Comments

• matt 26th Nov '10 - 5:24pm

  what has happened to LDV the last week or so?

  I had noticed there have been lack of posters and articles in the last week.

  Even staunch supporters of the party have been extremely mute the last week or so.

  Is the party closing in on itself, in the private members forum?

  We know some Liberal Democrat Mp’s have been in a state of panic this last week, over the upcoming vote on tuition fee’s, and the MP’s held an Emergency 2 hour Meeting on the matter, earlier this week.

  Does this have anything to do with why the party as a whole seems to be becoming very quiet in public as well?

• KevinM 26th Nov '10 - 5:36pm

  Matt, the private members forum has never been so busy. Perhaps members prefer reasoned debate.

• matt 26th Nov '10 - 5:40pm

  Reasoned debate away from anyone who opposes Liberal Democrat Policies you mean?

• Anthony Aloysius St 26th Nov '10 - 9:09pm

  It’s certainly surprising that there’s been no comment on Clegg’s statement this afternoon that Lib Dem ministers may abstain in the vote on university fees:
  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11850194

• Anthony Aloysius St 26th Nov '10 - 9:17pm

  William Cullerne Bown sees this as an indication that Clegg has failed to exert his authority on the party, and instead “could be accused of being a prisoner of party activists.” Bown evidently thinks there’s a possibility that the reforms will fail:
  http://exquisitelife.researchresearch.com/exquisite_life/2010/11/why-students-should-join-the-lib-dems.html

• matt 26th Nov '10 - 9:57pm

  I think Nick Clegg will end up leading his party to all Abstain on the Tuition fee’s vote.

  Unfortunately 57 Liberal Democrat MP’s Abstaining, means Conservatives only need to get a majority of 269, and with 306 Conservative MP’s they will walk it.

  If that happens, the public will punish Liberal democrats at the local elections and on the vote for AV, due to their betrayal.

  Either way Nick Clegg’s prediction on his own future will be accurate, and he will become toast

• Anthony Aloysius St 27th Nov '10 - 9:05am

  “I think Nick Clegg will end up leading his party to all Abstain on the Tuition fee’s vote.
  Unfortunately 57 Liberal Democrat MP’s Abstaining, means Conservatives only need to get a majority of 269, and with 306 Conservative MP’s they will walk it.”

  I think the indications are that it will be more difficult than that for the government.

  First, I assume 269 in your comment is a typo for 296.

  Second, 3 Tory MPs signed the pledge. I don’t know what they are going to do, but I’ve seen a press report suggesting that at least one will vote “no”. So the Tories might be 2 or 3 votes down (or effectively 6 votes down if they all voted “no,” but I suppose that’s unlikely).

  Third, while Clegg may _try_ to make a deal with the parliamentary party based on abstention, that might actually worsen his situation, because it would mean (I presume) that no Lib Dems would vote “yes.” In those circumstances the Tories could be defeated if about 20 Lib Dems voted “no.”

  According to this website
  http://keepyourpledge.wordpress.com/
  13 have (recently!) said they would vote “no.” But 34 more are undeclared, and have evidently been waiting to hear the outcome of negotiations. So what it boils down to is this. Have they been waiting to decide whether to vote in favour (if whipped to do so) or abstain? Or have they been waiting to decide whether to vote “no” unless the proposals are modified to make them more acceptable?

• matt 27th Nov '10 - 9:43am

  @Anthony Aloysius St

  “First, I assume 269 in your comment is a typo for 296.”

  I am a bit confused them mate lol.

  I thought to get a bill through parliament, the coalition needed a majority vote of 326

  So if 57 Liberal Democrat MP’s Abstained, that would remove 57 votes from the Majority needed, bringing it down to 269 Votes needed for a majority.

  Is that not how it works then?

• Anthony Aloysius St 27th Nov '10 - 10:41am

  matt

  Think of it as needing more than half of those who vote. So if 57 didn’t vote, you would need half of 650-57.

• matt 27th Nov '10 - 11:29am

  lol, realised what i had done now, how thick do I now feel lol

  Thanks for that 😉

• Anthony Aloysius St 27th Nov '10 - 5:17pm

  The Telegraph has a story about the various woes of Nick Clegg – anger vented by Lib Dem MPs at the meeting of the parliamentary party, Clegg feeling let down because Cable hasn’t offered him enough support, civil servants complaining that Clegg’s office is dysfunctional, “with a leader struggling to define and implement his agenda,” Danny Alexander to take a more active role in “coalition management,” “trying to bolster his ailing leader,” and talk of the return of David Laws also indicating an admission that Clegg “needs more support.”
  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/nick-clegg/8163073/Nick-Clegg-the-Coalitions-Ancient-Mariner.html

  I’m starting to wonder whether the man’s going for the sympathy vote.

• Anthony Aloysius St 28th Nov '10 - 12:18pm

  “YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%.
  …
  Nick Clegg’s approval rating plummets to minus 22, down from minus 13 a week ago and by far his lowest ever score as leader.”
  http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2892

  Interestingly, the approval ratings of all three main party leaders have dropped, though Winston Clegg’s is by far the lowest.

• Anthony Aloysius St 28th Nov '10 - 3:05pm

  David Willetts sticks his oar in:
  “Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable is “personally committed” to plans to raise university tuition fees, a Tory colleague has said.
  Higher education minister David Willetts said he was “confident” Mr Cable would back the measure in a Commons vote next month.”
  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11857831

  So a minister thinks his departmental head will vote for the department’s proposals. Really, this would be hilarious if it weren’t so tragic.

• Anthony Aloysius St 29th Nov '10 - 8:43am

  It really is astonishing that LDV is ignoring the dramatic developments surrounding this issue in the last few days – particularly as it has posted about a dozen different articles about it in the past, all saying essentially the same thing. So I don’t suppose anyone is even reading this, but –

  The BBC reports that more than 100 unsuccessful Lib Dem candidates have called on Nick Clegg to oppose the rise in fees. They say:
  “During the general election campaign many of our MPs (and now government ministers) signed a pledge with the National Union of Students that they would vote against any tuition fee rises during the course of the next Parliament.
  “The wording of this pledge clearly indicated that this would be unconditional; regardless of whether the party was in government or in opposition.
  “The party has been very clear for many years about its view on tuition fees and that we feel they should be abolished.”
  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11860155