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291 Comments
All permanent UK residents over 16/18 need to be given the right to vote. Not all EU migrants have been able to vote today, even though they have been living and paying taxes here full time for years.
Regards
Hope to god those exit polls are not anywhere near accurate
Remarkable exit polls. If correct, neither Miliband or Clegg will be a party leader in a week’s time.
Gove claiming if exit poll is right then “incumbent government has increased its majority for first time since 1983”. But 316 + 10 is only 326. At last election they had 363. Maths not Gove’s strong point.
Obviously if the BBC Exit poll is anything like right then we cannot take part in any coalition, we need a lengthy period in opposition. I have no idea if the poll is likely to be right, if would help if they gave some voting percentages.
It’s looking really bad.
If the polls are correct – and I say if – then that’s the end for the Lib Dems, I suspect. That’s not a rump of a party, more a pimple. Certainly Clegg – if he hasn’t lost his seat – can’t continue as leader, and anyone even considering a coalition with the Tories needs to go and have a lie down in a darkened room for a very, very long time (probably around 5 years.)
So hope we get at least double the number of predicted seats in exit poll. Paul is right though I think.
Ye reap what ye sew
The fewer seats we get, the higher the price of coalition. Not just for the last coalition but any in the future.
If the poll is right then Nick Clegg should resign soon as leader, but having only 10 MPs would not be the end of the party. Life would be difficult for it again.
Even I think that exit poll is horrifically wrong. I don’t think the methodology takes local factors and differential swings into enough account.
YouGov’s Exit poll is better for you guys. 31 seats in that one.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596424816879611904
Time will so tell us guys.
You Gov poll has us on 31
Lib Dems should still consider coalition even if they get 1 seat. A lengthy period in opposition? What for? To build and then get wiped out again once we get into government? We need a sustainable path to growth, not boom and bust.
All options should be on the table. If we play a bad hand well then we will get rewarded.
Andrew Marr: “The Tory strategy of taking out lots and lots of Lib Dems has worked very well.”
The big mystery is why the Lib Dems ever thought concentrating all their fire on Labour and virtually ignoring the Tories would bear fruit. Here on LDV the Tories have barely had a mention during the whole campaign – then there’s an article published having a go at Cameron at exactly 10pm tonight. Not a good strategy I fear.
If NC has kept his seat, and if he can convince the other 9 MPs to go into the coalition with the Tories – wouldn’t he have achieved his goal?
Eddie that path to a sustainable vote means a consistent message in each part of the country.
Houghton & Sunderland South us down 12% and UKIP into second!
We might get a coalition of Tories, Ukip and the DUP. Ye gods.
So you’re going to be wiped out, prop up a rightwing Tory government as it gives the poor a good kicking and sell out out your one remaining pricipal on Europe to get into power.
You have already given up on free speech, as all criticism is censored here.
I agree David, but I don’t have “inside information”, so I can’t comment too much on that. Never have I wanted someone to win a seat so bad as Clegg tonight. We can’t be leaderless in a hung parliament. We’ll have to fall in line behind Brinton (no problem with that).
He should be fine, considering the swing doesn’t look like it has gone to Labour.
The interesting thing to me is that UKIP might replace the Tories in the North judging from Sunderland in and yet the BBC is talking about a swing from Labour to UKIP! I’m beginning to think Paddy Ashdown won’t be eating is hat because the Tory facing seats might hold better than the poll suggests. I don’t think the SNP will get 58 seats either. I’m hoping the exit poll is wrong. Sad about the lost deposit, but I kind of suspected this in some urban seats.
If we’ve lost a swathe of seats it’ll be to the Tories, and that will be a mix of Labour voters cutting their noses off to spite their faces and us being lukewarm about the coalition.
Sunderland Central us down 14%.
Clegg will be safe as the Tories would have made sure he keeps his seat by encouraging Tories to vote tactically for Clegg just in case they needed him for another government.
However if the polls are right and the Liberal Democrats only manage to hold between 10-15 seats, I would be surprised if the parliamentary party would agree to another coalition with the Tories, especially since most of their loses would have gone to the Tories in the first place.
matt
“Clegg will be safe as the Tories would have made sure he keeps his seat by encouraging Tories to vote tactically for Clegg just in case they needed him for another government.”
Yes, because Tory Central Office has that sort of control over thousands of Tory voters. Even David Allen doesn’t believe that. (Well, I don’t think he does. Perhaps he’ll disabuse me of that notion…)
Washington and Sunderland West us down 14% behind the Greens, but not last, UKIP just into second.
@Malcolm TCO (no relation) mediates its control via the Orange Book Secret Island according to Mr A
The exit poll suggests a swing from Lib Dem to Tory and from Labour to SNP. The first 3 results suggest a swing to Labour and UKIP (albeit in unrepresentative seats). Could we be in for a very polarised House of Commons with the centre hollowed out?
North Norfolk
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Southport
Bath
Colchester
Eastleigh
Sutton and Cheam
Carshalton and Wallington
Eastborne
Thornbury and Yate
Interesting that it is these seats we would keep. It would be a much different Parliamentary Party, with the current leadership all but whipped out.
Also: Good to see that even after 5 years, Gove still does not understand both basic Maths and the concept of a Coalition Government.
@Peter Watson: I know the European Elections are a very different kettle of fish, but it is interesting to see the potential correlation.
If Clegg loses his seat I suppose he still stays leader until an election is called. I just checked out the Lib Dem constitution, but can’t find anything on these particular circumstances.
Someone will have a contingency plan somewhere, I hope!
Somebody up there has tweeted “Either people being deliberately overdramatic or haven’t been paying attention for 5 years. LD lost deposits in SUNDERLAND unsurprising.”
Last time round LDs got 14–16% in those seats. Now they’re down to 3% after 5 years in government. It may not be surprising but it’s sure not insignificant.
I notice that three of the Tory’s outlier gains are in Lib Dem seats (Southport, Lewes and Thornbury) and that Labour’s single most outlier gain is Cambridge. So I’d treat that figure of 10 with considerable caution. But it is undeniably a disastrous night for our party and any consideration of future coalitions must now be off the table.
paul barker
“I have no idea if the poll is likely to be right, if would help if they gave some voting percentages.”
I’m afraid that won’t happen. These exit polls aren’t based on a national vote percentage, but on polling in contested seats, looking at changes from last time and making probabilistic assessments of who’s most likely to win each of those seats, then adding up the probabilities to give a global total. It’s annoying, because while it gives a better idea of actual outcomes, it means that the question of who gets how many votes (and all the legitimacy issues that one might be able to raise as a result) is completely undiscussed in all the early reaction.
If Nick Clegg loses his seat then hopefully he will resign and the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons will elect a deputy leader who will act as leader until a result of the leadership election. Also if Nick loses his seat I don’t think we will want to be a coalition government.
If the exit poll does turn out right it highlights the central mistake of the campaign which was to bank on a coalition and to not see the Conservatives as the opposition in Tory facing seats. Attacking Labour and the SNP was a waste of effort because those seats were already gone, something that Lord Oakeshott recognised.
On Twitter
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
Senior LibDem source: Danny Alexander has lost. #ge2015
11:49 PM – 7 May 2015
So far, 3 results returned and 3 lost LD deposits.
Michael BG
“If Nick Clegg loses his seat then hopefully he will resign”
He’s got no choice. Rule 10.2:
“An election for the Leader shall be called upon: … c) the Leader ceasing to be a Member of the House of Commons (other than a temporary cessation by reason of a dissolution)”
When the election has taken place he ceases to be leader (10.3).
3 lost deposits & it’s being reported that a senior LibDem source is saying that Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat.
It’s not looking good , is it.
As they say . . . What goes around, comes around.
BBC forecasting Tories winning Eastleigh.
Turnout looks to be one of the deciding factors. Will be interesting to see the actual vote numbers compared to last time. Vote could have held but higher turnout pushes us back
The exit polls are holding up.
If this is true, then all our efforts to make a coalition work have done nothing but to hand monopoly power to the Conservatives.
I feel utterly dejected.
@ Malcolm Todd
You are correctly quoting the rules. I was stating that I hope that Nick Clegg would resign and be replaced with an acting leader while the leadership election takes place rather than waiting for the leadership election to be completed.
Will CISTA get more votes than the lib dems in any of the seats that they are standing in?
Cameron has played you like a piano..
Rumours that Cable, Hughes and Featherstone have all lost. 10 seats might seem like wishful thinking before the night is out.
Michael BG
Oh yeah, fair enough. I didn’t read carefully enough.
It occurs to me that there won’t be a deputy leader available, as Malcolm Bruce isn’t standing again, so even if Clegg doesn’t resign immediately the MPs can elect a new deputy and everyone just treat him/her as acting leader. Though that might require more spine than the parliamentary party has shown so far.
It looks like the coalition nay-sayers will get their wish.
@mpg
“If this is true, then all our efforts to make a coalition work have done nothing but to hand monopoly power to the Conservatives.”
Yet we were repeatedly told that if the Lib Dems stood up to the Tories in coalition then they would call an election and win it outright. In reality the Tories got pretty much what they wanted for five years and will now form a minority government without the need of the remaining handful of Lib Dems MPs.
Really want CISTA to get a good result, if they get better results in some seats than the lib dems it will prove that the lib dems should have supported the cause themselves and not been wishy washy and scared to stand up for freedom.
TCO
If the “coalition nay-sayers” had got their wish Clegg would have resigned after the euros. Many of your so called “naysayers” have had to watch the party they have worked so hard for being destroyed by a weak, over promoted leadership.
Swindon North – us down 14% and another lost deposit and we were last.
@ Malcolm Todd
We can hope that our MPs will have more backbone now than in the past.
And that coalition supporters only had one place to go.
@TCO “It looks like the coalition nay-sayers will get their wish.”
It was not a wish, it is the outcome that they were warning against.
Putney we came third (6%) and only down 11%.
It seems that our vote is going to Labour in Labour seats and Conservative in Conservative seats. As expected we are being devastated.
And then there was Newcastle…
@MichaelBG evidence of Newcastle N is that its gone to UKIP – bearing out the “party of protest” theory.
And you’re assuming we have any MPs to select a new leader from.
Newcastle upon Tyne East – we went from second to fourth and down 22%.
Peter Watson.
Exactly, I’ve been trying to be positive but everything about Clegg’s strategy has proved disastrous because it turned wavering Tories back into reassured Tories whilst making the Lib Dems toxic in the North. This is a bad night for progressive politics and any thought of a continuation of the coalition should be off the cards.
I’m still a centrist. The only place that looks like there is a market for liberal leftism is Scotland and we don’t even know if that is sustainable.
The campaign could have been better, but in my opinion the manifesto wasn’t good enough. The manifesto said we were basically Labour whilst the campaign said we were broadly equidistant.
Policies such as cutting the income tax threshold, but not the national insurance one also need to go.
Peter Watson 7th May ’15 – 11:36pm
“Could we be in for a very polarised House of Commons with the centre hollowed out?”
I was thinking earlier, this is going to be the Yeats election:
Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold,
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world…
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
are full of passionate intensity…
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Looks as if the exit poll might be right.
Kinnock repeating his 1992 valedictory.
@ TCO
In Newcastle upon Tyne East we are down about 2,000 votes and Labour are up by about 2,000 votes and the Conservatives up by 800. Of course I am assuming we will have some MPs after all the results are in.
Tom Brake pointing and sneering at the Labour benches time after time in the Commons whilst cheering along a Tory Minister…PAYBACK.
Hi,
A viewpoint from outside the lib dem camp.
I just did not get your campaign message at all. “bring heart to conservatives and head to Labour”…. In plain English what this says to me is “vote Lib dems and have no idea who you you will get” or ” vote lib dem and get someone else” …. In truth it was/is a very strange message as if i wanted to vote left then I’d vote real and vote labour, if i’d vote right, I’d vote real and vote tory.
It must have been a case of emperors new clothes and nobody say “that sounds a bit daft?”…
Fundamentally though, ever since Nick Clegg broke his promise I have never been able to trust a thing he said, not mater how good/plausible it sounded. He promised a new politics, that lib dems would be different. The breaking of the tuition fees simply said ” we are the same as the others, you just can’t trust us”
And people never have since.
@Silvio – 5 years of Labour screaming “betrayal” = Tory victory. Proud of yourself?
I have been one of those warning of disaster coming on this date, and if the results are indeed as described — though I have no confidence in the predictions — I can say that I take absolutely no satisfaction in it. I don’t ask, and I don’t expect those who steadfastly predicted rosy scenarios (if not rose-gardeny scenarios) to apologise and admit their errors. But I do ask the Party to rethink its positions, look at what it did wrong, and put greater confidence in those who, publicly or privately, saw those mistakes at the time and recommended a different path.
There was a chance to avoid this in the aftermath of the Euro elections, but there was, sadly, a mass chickening out.
We put almost no resources into non-winnable seats so it’s hard to project from initial results what is finally going to happen, but still very worrying .
Battersea – another lost deposit.
Does anyone know where these ten seats are going to come from? I’m struggling to find 8 on tonights showing.
@David-1 the “error” was taking the decision to go into coalition. Once that was taken, everything else followed. Its clear from the direction our vote has fractured that we’d accreted protest votes and they’ve now gone three ways; whereas those who supported coalition only had the option of voting Conservative.
So the lesson I learn is that going into coalition destroys your support, which is a bit of a catch-22 for a third part, for without participation in government what is the point?
Wrexham – down from 25% to 5%.
There are questions to answer, but there are two sides to it. On the one side, what has the party lost and could it have been avoided, on the other what has the party achieved in the last 5 years – and was it worth 50 MPs and numerous counselors losing their position.
Then the question is, how does the party rebuild it’s capital, can it reach a stage when it is able to form part of a government again, and how best to spend that capital. I could live with a cycle leading up to a period in government, so long as that time in government was spent wisely, with positive changes to the country.
I guess the party will have plenty of time in opposition to consider these questions.
Yes, a polarising election.
Concern about immigration -> UKIP
Concern about the SNP -> Tory.
Concern about Labour -> SNP
Putting the word error into quotes hardly makes it less of an error.
Nick Clegg believed that he could betray people who voted for the Lib Dems, dismiss them as a bunch of dissatisfied activists, and expect the Party to retain support — without any idea where that support was to come from. That was an error. The political results of those decisions were evident years ago to anybody who was watching, but Clegg and other leading Lib Dems chose to ‘hear no evil’ of their direction, or to amend it in any way. Farcical pseudo-apologies and boasting for success in passing Tory policies only worsened the situation. Having a host of apologists who denied the self-evident facts and rubbished anybody who saw things differently gave Clegg & Co. an excuse for dismissing those facts. These were all errors — not vague errors of positioning, but tangible, measurable, political errors. Because of them Clegg should have been removed for incompetence two years ago. This was not done — another error.
The worst results in my political lifetime.
@TCO ‘the “error” was taking the decision to go into coalition.’
I believe that the error was in the way that coalition was presented. At the beginning it was presented as a meeting of minds without even a fag-paper between the two parties. The composition of the coalition meant that subsequent policies would inevitably be overwhelmingly tory but Lib Dem MPs regularly appeared in the media to present them as what Lib Dems wanted and the party made claims about the large proportion of coalition policies that were Lib Dem ones. By the time of the election, attempts to present Lib Dems as a moderating influence on nasty Tories was too little and too late, And breaking the tuition fees promise was electoral suicide regardless of the validity of any justification.
@David-1 there’s no space for a left-wing protest party any more. So good luck if that’s what you want to recreate.
Fourth place in Newcastle North – down from 32% to under 10%
@ TCO – 5 Years of being a shield for the Conservatives and for what your own destruction..BREAKING NEWS Simon Hughes in danger. Justice.
Welcome to the end of the UK and Brexit. Coz this is one divided nation. I genuinely thought and hoped the Lib Dems would pick up momentum in the last few days.
“Better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.”
Good luck Tim Farron (assuming you hold your seat); I hope you get treated better by your activists than your predecessor.
TCO: there’s no space for a second Tory Party. Clegg tried to move the Party to the right, on to already occupied ground, and then salted the ground he had abandoned. You are claiming the result of that error as the cause.
Well done Lib Dems. What was it Caron was saying? Best government in her lifetime?
You enabled the Tories for years, and signed your own political death warrant.
@Silvio – Labour are finished as a serious party if they can’t win against a “hated” Conservative government
Lost deposit in Clwyd South
I’m starting to agree with Peter Mandelson that Labour (and Lib Dems) have been squeezed out by English and Scottish nationalism.
I’m not going to take lessons in politics from people who have made a habit of being wrong about everything.
@ James Matthews
In five years time I wonder which our achievements in government will still be place. Is the UK a more liberal society now than in 2010?
Cheltenham lost.
1.78% in Nuneaton. These results are much worse than the polls.
So finally the chickens have come home to roost – everything libdems4change and libdemfightback said about changing leader in the summer have been proved correct. Annihilation – so much for the 37 seat strategy . Clegg has killed our party he should quit tonight. paddy eats his hat and stephen Tall does his Whitehall streak. Not happy to be proved right.
@Silvio “Simon Hughes in danger. ”
For me, Hughes’ position on tuition fees took some of the shine off, but I will still be saddened if he is out. And more so if suggestions that Charles Kennedy might lose also prove to be correct.
Constant denial by the leadership and key supporters that there was any problem, despite years of polling evidence to the contrary, has been a major factor in tonight’s results. If nothing is wrong there is no need to fix it.
No doubt there will be those around Nick who will say that it’s not that bad!
Just wait for the local election results tomorrow.
The Emperor has no clothes
David Laws in trouble in Yeovil – if Yeovil is lost I make it 6 or 7 seats at best and still we get people defending Clegg.
“It woz the Suns what won it” – north and South of the border!!
The fact that the polls seem to be so wrong reinforces the view that they should be banned during the election.
I am surprised that David Laws is under threat in Yeovil.
You shouldn’t be surprised and you have no reason to have been surprised. This was in the cards for a long, long time.
Well seeing as David Laws was one of the architects of this disaster, maybe losing him is no bad thing.
Nuneaton suggests the exit poll was correct.
The Lib Dems were right to go into Coalition though. A kicking of the magnitude suggested is undeserved.
At this rate we’ll be lucky to get 10.
You’ve paid such a price for the coalition, if another is offered I think they should take it because they isn’t much left to lose anymore.
One!
Mark Williams has held Ceredigion but had fewer votes this time.
We have a leader
Well done.
As saying one is and always has been right seems to be the fashion, I will kick against it by saying that I thought in 2010, and for several years afterward, that going into Coalition was the right and necessary thing to do. And I was clearly wrong, absolutely wrong. It was not just a mistake, but a disastrous and perhaps irremediable error.
Just held Ceridigion though. That’s something.
@David-1 no, we were and remain right to go into coalition for the country’s sake. If that’s a price the party had to pay so be it.
And Farron agrees with me.
Well, there’s ONE Lib Dem MP.
The postmortem seems a little premature to me until we know the full results but I think Clegg should be considering his position already.
TCO: “We have a leader” 😀 – that’s what I was thinking! As bad as it gets.
We did too little good for the country for the sacrifice of the Party to be justified in any way. Realistically, a Party is an engine for winning elections. It is not there to make a statement. It is certainly not there to take blows on behalf of a completely different party, to their benefit and its own loss. The only way one can be satisfied with “price” paid is if one were wishing for the destruction of the Liberal Democrats and the victory of the Conservatives.
Eddie we’re a doubly endangered species, being on the right if the party given all the knives I can hear being sharpened!
You need a little gallows humour.
@David-1 you’d better take that up with Farron then.
Of course the party made the right decision to go into government with the Conservatives. This general election was always going to be bad for us. I just didn’t think it would be this bad. Then I didn’t think Nick Clegg would be so bad at being part of a coalition with all the experience in the party.
It’s a very sad night where we lose a great number of great representatives, it’d be even sadder if the lessons aren’t learnt. I think tonight it’s pretty unimportant whether you’re pro/anti Clegg, the reality is the party is out of the game, the question is will it continue to be an organisation that’s so poor at listening.
TCO, don’t encourage sharpened knives! 😀
Seriously though, we need to learn lessons and as I have been saying for a while: let’s have some proper research done and take it from there. No selective anecdotal stuff.
There will be no change in my fundamental values, but we need a lot more policy research. That’s what i think anyway.
Cameron has been playing to win right through this parliament, from his sides character assassination of his deputy in the AV vote to his English votes mantra after the Scots referendum.
Just a thought, it will be even harder for labour next time when the Tories redraw the boundaries!!
The irony is that had the Tories won a small majority in 2010, say, 8-10 seats (and they were only 20-odd seats from that given Sinn Fein don’t take up Westminster seats) and we had won, say 45-50, we would have been in a strong position to benefit from an unpopular government this time around. I think we would have been celebrating the election of @ 70 MPs. Probably at worst 65. From a small base of around 10 seats (much worse than even I-a real pessimist-expected) we may not now benefit greatly next time around. Don’t be surprised if we lose vote share to both Labour and the Greens next time around. Or maybe we need a radical restructuring of the non-socialist left, involving a non-Union-dependent Labour, ourselves and the Greens?? Because the result is almost as bad for Labour as for us. Clegg has been a poor leader, but in so many ways he was on a hiding to nothing. And I don’t think we should underestimate the influence of the Murdochian-led media. As so often before, they have well and truly done their job.
80 votes in Castle Point!!
The Tories have unintentionally benefitted from a fear of the SNP
Castle Point clearly wrong – you could see the candidate talking to the returning officer.
Unintentionally? The Tories created fear of the SNP!
@Jonathan a fair assessment
The Castle Point result is indeed given as 80.
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000622
80 votes in Castle Point, 0.18%. Must be the lowest ever.
@David-1 no, they’ve surfed the wave that Indy ref created. They had no idea that that would finish SLAB.
David Blake 8th May ’15 – 2:04am
“The fact that the polls seem to be so wrong reinforces the view that they should be banned during the election.”
Why? I don’t see any connection between premise and conclusion there.
80 votes in a Parliamentary election for us must be the lowest we have ever had.
I think the seeming lack of political diversity in Scotland should worry the Scots. These huge swings to the SNP are unprecedented. As Tim Farron said on Sky nationalism is potentially dangerous.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/07/british-sovereign-risk-2010/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body
We were never, ever, ever like Greece and if Nick keeps using that excuse for going into coalition he deserves to be laughed out of politics for being unbelievable naive. By 2010 the banks had been bailed out and growth had returned, there was no market meltdown.
The fact is that Liberal Democrats have spun a story for the past 5 years, that Labour wrecked the economy and we were broke, and the story has helped nobody but the Conservatives.
The referendum only had an impact insofar as it freed up Scots to vote for the SNP without worrying about the future of Scotland out of the Union. In the rest of the UK it was irrelevant until the Tories decided to whip up anti-Scottish sentiment in England as part of their campaign.
Jo Swinson gone.
Jo Swinson loses.
Jo Swinson is out. Very sad.
On balance, and point-for-point, for the short-term benefit of the country, I still believe we were correct in going into coalition with the Tories. In retrospect our influence helped to a small degree to mitigate the damage a majority Conservative government would have wreaked on those who are really doing it tough. But for our party the damage may prove terminal………….and unless this leads to a realignment of the Left the long-term future of the country (certainly those who most need effective governmental intervention) looks quite bleak at present.
29% in Montgomeryshire
LBC seems to be the best source for results.
People blaming it on the fact we went into coalition are missing the point. It was timidity and talking it up that caused the damage, because it reassured wavering voter. What we should have done is the opposite of what papers like the mail said. We should have said was “well we tried but The Conservatives are incompetent monsters who will break up the UK and ruin the economy by making you all poorer and gambling with the EU. They can’t be trusted on their own and will probably eat your babies”, instead we tried to be balanced and statesman like and fight for seats and for voters that were already lost,
Jo Swinson lost Dunbartonshire East to SNP while getting over 1000 more votes this time.
Bedroom Tax = Jo Swinson loosing her seat. JUSTICE.
We have just lost Jo Swinson. She was so good at sticking up for women. I feel so sad. I think the party should concentrate on licking its wounds for the next 24 hours. We have been this low before and fought our way back singing about lost deposits so we will do it again. I’m on tenterhooks to hear the Bath result but the local ballot papers are being verified before the parliamentary ones are counted apparently.
Turnout. It’s up and it looks like that’s what’s done it.
I’m sorry about Jo Swinson. If the party doesn’t completely collapse, she’ll surely be back. Possibly a future leader of the Liberal Democrats … at Holyrood, in an independent Scotland.
Tactical unwind in both directions
Brecon lost
How many candidates will we be able to field in 2020, I wonder?
We will need the experiences of all the party’s candidates if we are to defeat “the politics of fear” as Farron has put it.
I’m also a bit gutted for Douglas Alexander. Defeated by a 20 year old student. Douglas always came across as someone reasonable to me.
Such a shame about Jo Swinson, was hoping she’d be a potential leadership candidate should Nick stand down. Close result though, and given this seat was all but written off for us, there’s still hope in safer LD seats.
TCO
What are you suggesting turnout is responsible for? And with what implication?
It’s a bit rich for any Lib Dem MP to complain about the politics of feat after the extent to which they’ve cheerfully stocked it both before and during this election campaign.
Jo Swinson fought a really tough battle with the SNP and it’s sad she couldn’t quite do it.
@Malcolm Todd more people voting … fear of Ed.
Impressive speech from Jim Murphy. Wonder if Nick Clegg’s will show the same dignity.
Simon Hughes is about to loose his seat. Carnage.
I take no pleasure in what is happening. Five years ago I and others used this site to beg for help against the Tory Welfare Cuts. We were met with derision and insults, we had voted for you but were called liars, intimated to be scroungers and\or Labour trolls. We warned you that you would lose seats in the next election as your MPs blindly enabled the Tories but that was also met with derision. Tonight I am devastated that the poor,sick and vulnerable will be trampled more underfoot. Why oh why did you do it?
TCO
My understanding is that turnout in England and Wales is barely up from 5 years ago — has that changed in the last hour?
In Scotland, of course, turnout is way up. I don’t think you can seriously claim that’s got anything to do with “fear of Ed”.
Tim Farron holds.
Two!
“we were and remain right to go into coalition for the country’s sake”
But we now know that the economy was recovering under Labour in 2010, and that the coalition’s austerity set back this recovery – see letter by economics professors in Tuesday’s Independent.
Hopefully this wipeout gives us a chance for a rethink, and in particular for moving on from the discredited neoliberal economic agenda.
In fact, the BBC is currently arguing with itself about whether turnout in England is up by 0.5% or down by 2%. Either way, I think that theory’s toast, TCO!
One thing is for sure: I’m not listening to anyone who suggest only right and left wing strategies work, as Gareth Epps has just suggested.
Let’s have some proper evidence of what went wrong.
Will the party be able to recover the cost of some of the lost deposits by selling tickets for Stephen Tall’s streak and Paddy Ashdown’s hat cuisine?
Jenny Willott out. :/
Particularly sad news about Jenny Willott and Ed Davey by the way. Danny Alexander too, if his has been declared yet. Much more sad news to come by the looks of it, unfortunately.
Ed Davey set to loose seat…
@Silvio I think you mean lose, not loose, and yes he has lost it.
It looks as if we’re losing to Labour in London and the Tories in threat of England
Alliance has lost its Northern Irish seat.
Alistair Carmichael holds, despite a 20% collapse in the Lib Dem vote, in one of the few seats in Scotland that the SNP have not won.
Three.
We have done very badly on the Isle of Wight from second to fifth.
I know I probably shouldn’t say this, but I’m amazed at how well UKIP are holding up and I feel quite bad for them. They’re probably polling in the mid teens but will get 2 seats if they’re lucky, an insult.
Of course on the other hand, it’s easy to vote UKIP in a safe seat as a form of protest, maybe people are a lot flakier when it comes to putting the cross in a box in a seat that matters.
Is the fact that we still have MPs (well one in each) in Wales, England and Scotland a plus point for the night! And I guess we can’t have a leadership election because we won’t have enough MPs left. So it will be up to those left to agree who it should be.
As an outsider, it seems completely clear why the Lib Dems have been obliterated. What on earth does the party actually stand for? Many of the people who voted for them in 2010 thought of them as a leftist alternative, only to see them prop up and vote alongside what is probably the most right-wing austerity government in living memory.
If you’re pro-Coalition you can vote for the Tories. If you’re anti-Coalition then voting for the Lib Dems is basically a vote for the Tories anyway. There is really no reason to vote for the party at all anymore except tactically – there’s certainly no cause to think they would keep any of their pledges in a coalition government.
Hornsey gone
I suppose Featherstone losing is no surprise, but the size of the defeat is massive.
From looking at how the former Lib Dem vote broke to the Tories, it looks like the voters decided that full fat Tory was better than the skinny Latte tory government they had over the last 5 yeas.
Simon Hughes gone.
Simon Hughes has made me turn to drink.
Featherstone gone, Hughes gone.
Depressing news so far.
Sad results all around. We need to stick together. We don’t want to do a Labour and start blood thirsty infighting.
Eyes focused towards Nick Clegg in Hallam soon…
Simon Hughes gone. The wrong campaign aimed at the wrong targets. It’s reassured Tory voters and galvanised progressive voters.
Good Lord, Hughes wasn’t even close. It’s a Liberal wipeout in London, which is just about the only place Labour is doing well.
Let’s hope Clegg’s out, lets be honest, he is the main architect of all this.
Start with a clean slate, try and rebuild trust with voters, new leader, a bit of humility and time in the wilderness.
Apart from having more MP in Scotland than Labour, this is shaping up to be a disastrous rout for the Lib Dems and a brutal judgement of the performance of the party and its leadership in Coalition.
Time for bed (said Zebedee) but I wonder what I’m going to wake up to.
Thornton loses in Eastleigh. Not even close.
Remember when Eastleigh was proof of Lib Dem resilience…?
Memo to Lib Dem leadership…if any left by the end of the evening.
When the writing’s on the wall, read it.
Lib Dems hold Southport. I didn’t help out, but at least I voted John Pugh.
We need to rebuild from the grassroots, whatever the final result. Not everything Clegg’s done has been negative – in coalition we’ve achieved a lot (income tax cuts, pupil premium, equal marriage) and punched above our weight. Just because we’re in for a bad night, doesn’t mean we need to go to an easy Labour-lite position, but something clearly needs to give and it needs to start from the bottom up, starting tomorrow no doubt. Time for STV at last as well!
You sure, Eddie? I haven’t seen it being called anywhere.
ITV tweeted it half an hour ago. Not sure about their verification.
The sight of Boris with the two Loony’s has cheered me up a fair bit. They look like a team. 🙂
Vince out! Shock.
Beth Rigby @BethRigby 1m1 minute ago
Tory sources think Vince Cable is gone. #GE2015
Twickenham: Con gain (Cable out)
Would think Clegg’s a goner unless the Tories save him in Hallam.
Confirmed John Pugh! I let out a “Get in!”. Against the Tories too.
Eastbourne lost to Tories
Vince Cable has lost in Twickenham.
That woman that won Vince’s seat looked really sad about it. I think she voted Vince.
Bath gone to the Tories,
Vince Cable makes a dignified exit
Torbay gone to the Tories.
The party is being surgically dismembered, and by our partners in the Coalition.
We’ve been fools.
Can see a pattern emerging here
Somebody may have been saying something about the Conservatives devouring their coalition partners for, let’s say, the past five years.
We probably shouldn’t join another coalition, but after all the losses to the Conservatives there is no point in doing a knee-jerk move as a whole to the left. Maybe in some policy areas, but not altogether. In some areas I still think the party needs to move to the right. I said teaming up with Labour to do a deal with the nationalists would be the quickest route to a Conservative majority in the UK, so let’s not get the blinkers on and think we just need to ramp up the anti Tory rhetoric.
Nicks still in.
That’s four then. Enough for candidate, proposer, seconder and dissident. Not quite enough for a contested election.
Clegg holds on. A resilient performance.
Greater love hath no man than this….
Nick Clegg retains his seat. The question is whether he will take personal responsibility for the overall result. Precedents are not encouraging.
Eddie Sammon, agree about avoiding a lurch either to a Labourish position or a Tory-lite one. At least Nick was right about avoiding lurches! Sad night all round though.
John Pugh also won in Southport, so it’s five.
You have been wiped out in the ‘NATIONAL INTREST’.
Clegg standing down?
Clegg holds, but it sounded like a resignation speech.
Sounded like Clegg will stand down as leader in the morning.
So Clegg stays.
No justice in this world, seeing others who’ve gone.
Clegg has failed as a leader. He has brought about, not indeed single-handedly but under his direction, the most catastrophic Liberal defeat since the early 20th century. It’s time for him to go.
“The Conservatives are right about the economy, but they’re not very nice”
“Labour are much nicer than us, but are hopeless with economy”
“Vote Lib Dem, vote for a mushy middle!”
Can whoever thought of this stuff please quit now. I know this is not exactly how it was framed, but it is the logical conclusion of “we’ll give a heart to the Conservatives and a brain to Labour!” nonsense.
Well, sounds like Clegg’s going to do the inevitable thing. Will anybody be able to stand against Farron? Will Clegg stay on for the whole parliament or slink away early?
Thanks Conor. I agree with you too.
Now Clegg has dropped a hint, one word from me: If he resigns then let’s pick a candidate who can appeal to all parts of the country. I don’t know who it is, but it is very important.
Best regards
There is no guarantee of retaining Sheffield Hallam for the Lib Dems if Nick resigns his seat; in fact, the odds would seem to favour a third-place result.
Eddie, agree and was hoping Jo Swinson could’ve been that leader.
Where’s Jo Grimond when you need him?
So many of us warned you this would happen. We were called “Labour Tr0lls” and other assorted put-downs. We warned that positioning yourself so close to the Tories instead of treating the coalition as a business agreement and nothing else was only going to end in tears. At a stroke you possibly lost millions of your voters.
In giving the public the perception that you had abandoned the principles the 2010 election was fought on (“no more broken promises”) and that you suddenly agreed with most Tory policy (much of which has had horrible consequences for real people), you lost your souls.
I don’t rejoice in the party’s downfall (though I do not mourn the loss of those who concocted and promoted this failed electoral strategy of being “nice Tories”). I actually feel sad at what this once great party has reduced itself to. As someone firmly on the left, I believe Britain needs a strong, compassionate, people-not-profit-led Liberal party.
I think it’s time you became that party again.
Isn’t it interesting (from an outsiders’ perspective) how this Eddie Sammon character pops up every 5 minutes to make a self-serving comment and try to rewrite history
Labour gain Norwich South
And one more thing. Many of us repeatedly pointed out that you were being played by the Tories. They have so obviously been using you from the start. Look how it was always Danny Alexander on the news defending coalition policy, rather than Osborne. Instead of taking a step back and acknowledging this, you focused all your energies on attacking Labour and the SNP and seemed to have come down with a strong case of Stockholm Syndrome. You just didn’t listen.
@Stephen
If you’re firmly on the left then it’s astonishing that you would still be a liberal. The party has jettisoned any claim to being a centre-left party over the last 5 years
It is a centre-right party, of that there is no question. And thanks to their incompetence by positioning themselves as a kind of weak, imitation Tory, they have destroyed their own party and let the Tories in
Charles Kennedy has lost his seat. I’m genuinely sad about that.
Charles Kennedy out.
Gutted about Charles Kennedy.
Charles Kennedy gone. One of the few genuinely principled men in the party
Cameron played you, stitched you up and you are now destroyed. Local Election results will add to the disaster. You have nobody to blame but yourselves.
So sad. So many good MPs gone who didn’t deserve it. Absolutely shocking how campaign could go so wrong, but seeds of defeat sown in 2010. No small party will ever want to go into coalition now. The new look House of Commons will be very depressing indeed.
WildColonialBoy, my comments are intended to be what is best for the Lib Dems. I should go. And will do. But I’ve never tried to “re-write history” and with regards to self-serving: most of the time I try to be as unbiased as possible and have already said I didn’t help out this campaign.
Wildcolonial Boy
I nearly always disagree with Eddie Sammon but he is a Lib Dem and you are being unfair.
There’s no certainty where the Party will go from here. It all depends on who is left floating atop the shattered wreckage. It is obvious, however, that the behaviour of the past five years cannot be continued, and something else will have to be done. I do not think an extension of coalition is remotely in the cards and anyone who proposes it should be vociferously hooted off.
And Kennedy falls under the yellow tide. I didn’t vote for the party this time, I don’t regret it; but I’m shocked and saddened by the extent of the carnage.
I’m also thinking I may have to sort out my nationality in the next few years. Can I have two passports…?
Withington lost to Labour,
That’s a fair observation about Danny Alexander. You can’t really blame him for enjoying a big government job, after all every politician is a bit like that and wants to be in power, but it was always him sent out to defend the ‘tough decisions in the national interest’. He won applause from the serious broadcasters, newspapers and pundits, how many votes does that win though…?
David Laws out.
John Hemming gone.
@Eddie. Don’t take any comments to heart. We are all gutted by this whole thing.
I told you so.
Shortest ever Matthew Huntbach comment!
Morning all. Oh dear.
Theakes for leader.
Some people need to apologise for what they have done. For years they have defended Clegg come what may and this is the result.
David Heath gone,
@Malcolm Todd: Yes, you can, unless the country you seek citizenship with disallows dual citizenship.
Matthew Huntbach 8th May ’15 – 5:36am
I told you so.
You did so repeatedly, Matthew. You were correct to do so.
It is a real shame that they did not listen to you. It would be nice if just one of them would now acknowledge that you were correct.
Danny Alexander has lost in Inverness. David Laws is out in Yeovil too.
Julian Huppert has lost in Cambridge. I think he will be rather more mourned than some others.
Still waiting here in North Devon
I think Paddy’s hat is safe on a technicality. No way Liberals even reach 10 seats.
Well, that’s how to be Prime Minister; you just make a load of unfunded promises and avoid giving any clarity on what you’ll cut whilst hinting you’ll definitely cut something hard, just not anything specific that might hurt people. If it was that easy all along, why didn’t someone say?
Julian Huppert is a real loss not just for the Lib Dems but for parliament. I’m very sad to see him go.
Why were the fortunes of the two members of the coalition so at odds?
People who voted Conservative in 2010 liked the way the Coaltion conducted itself. People who voted LD in 2010 did not.
There were no soft Tories.
Clegg and Co hunted unicorns and people in our party who should have known better were seduced by the thrill of the chase.
“Let them all eat hats and run naked down Whitehall – everyone one of them.”
Bill Le Breton,
I said the same thing five years ago, sadly it ended up even worse.
“Why were the fortunes of the two members of the coalition so at odds?”
The Lib Dems foolishly pursued a differentiation strategy. Well they got differentiation.
Are you suggesting that the Liberal Democrats would have done better if they’d hugged the Tories closer? That would be difficult, given that Clegg’s preference for a continuing coalition with the Conservatives was clear throughout the campaign.
This is the worst result for us since 1970 and possibly 1951. Time to re-think everything-philosophy, name and even raison d’etre
My local candidate Mark Wright 5th in Bristol South, down from 2nd last time.
Hello Dr Wright, if you’re out there. Commiserations.
At least my prediction that UKIP wouldn’t get any 2nd places in the Bristol City Council constituencies appears to be holding… must check that to be sure.
Yardley and Solihull have hit me especially hard – no liberal voices in the West Midlands. Don’t know what else to say. I have hated being in coalition, I gave up my membership – but I never really believed this would happen.
I always preferred the sound of “Liberals.”
Cameron and Crosby are having a big big laugh at your expense, you have destroyed your party. Worth it?
This is exactly what I expected to happen. I refrained from saying so because I did not want to seem discouraging.
Nick was told by a large constituent of the party some 2 or 3 years ago, by a group of councillors, MEPs and activists with their ears close to the mood of the country; that supporting the severe benefit cuts, deep austerity, tuition fee rises and the hated bedroom tax, that their jobs were on the line but he ignored them. the cuts saw so many public sector jobs go, including police officers, nurses, fire service etc, even the bad news of those suicides linked to the severe sanctioning by DWP staff, did not sway Nick Clegg, the fact that yet again many were saying their seats were at risk if he and his colleagues did not use the power of veto he had within the coalition to veto the most severe of the cuts to welfare for those with physical & mental ill health, still he ignored the warnings.
This result was forewarned many times to Nick Clegg if he did not change course, but he kept repeating the mantra that “we are in coalition..” and seemed to ignore the warnings, now the party is back to where it was before the SDP Liberal Alliance days. Yes it will recover, but (a) how long will that recovery take (b) will it ever be truly trusted again by ordinary people given the policies they voted for in government went against just about all Liberal values of fairness.
So now we’ll finally find out whether those who’ve spent the last 5 years saying “you’re the same as the Tories” were correct. You hot what you wished for.
Can someone close to Silvio suggest that he take a sleeping tablet and get some shut eye
The parliamentary party so far…
Mark Williams; John Pugh; Tim Farron; Nick Clegg; Alistair Carmichael; Tom Brake.
Taxi!
Any chance of that group agreeing a common agenda together?
@ TCO – The Conservatives have earned their victory by deceiving your party and making clowns of you and most importantly they didn’t lie to get my vote in 2010. Deal with it.
Well Matt – thank g-d Norman Lamb is in the mix too.
JohnTilley
Matthew Huntbach 8th May ’15 – 5:36am
I told you so.
You did so repeatedly, Matthew. You were correct to do so.
It is a real shame that they did not listen to you. It would be nice if just one of them would now acknowledge that you were correct.
Thanks.
It should also be acknowledged that Matthew Huntbach told us so without claiming that the coalition – in itself – was the problem, or that Labour – in themselves – were the solution.
Farage half resigns.
Rejoice Clegg is gone if he’d have loved our party he would have given us a fighting chance and gone a year ago.
Small consolation, but it looks like the Castle Point result has been corrected.
The Lib Dem candidate received 801 votes, not 80.
The Leader told us he had been to see the Prime Minister and found him “looking at opinion polls”.
There was an immediate groan from the entire audience, with which the Leader appeared to sympathise.
David Steel MP and Jim Callaghan MP drifted apart.
When Paddy Ashdown MP became Leader he was fond of saying things like
” I will follow the people because I am their Leader.”
His tone of voice gave away what he really thought.
In this election pollsters found that about 25% of the electorate either did not know what they wanted, or might change their minds in the ballot booth.
Is it any wonder that political candidates, political journalists and ordinary voters go round in circles?
We had a bad result in 2014, retaining only one MEP.
We had a bad result in 2015, retaining only eight MPs.
We should be led by our elected leaders and not by their pollsters.