24 Comments

• Martin 21st Jun '19 - 8:27am

  The Furzedown ward (in Sadiq Khan territory) provides a fair indication of a starting point for Chuka Umunna next door in Streatham. Providing he has been doing his job, so is respected as a local MP and that we can provide infrastructure support he has a realistic chance of holding his seat.

• Geoff Reid 21st Jun '19 - 9:07am

  Andrew Teal in his Previews predicted a close result between Labour and Conservatives –
  but I don’t think he meant for second place!

• Christian 21st Jun '19 - 9:14am

  The Tory vote is not down by as much as I’d hoped. If we have a GE and the BXP don’t run against Tory leave MPs led by Boris then I’d worry that we’d only end up splitting the vote with Labour.

• theakes 21st Jun '19 - 9:21am

  2 hours time we should know the recall petition at Brecon result. Fingers crossed we get the 10%, being such a far flung constituency not easy to organise.

• Peter Farrell-Vinay 21st Jun '19 - 9:38am

  The Isle of Wight result looks fake: no-one has lost any votes.

• Chris Bertram 21st Jun '19 - 9:40am

  @Peter Farrell-Vinay: It’s taking account of the votes of independents not standing this time, though the tweet could have made it clearer.

• John McHugo 21st Jun '19 - 10:06am

  Out of interest, there seems to be no sign of the Brexit Party standing candidates in these local elections. Is this correct? If so, is it a deliberate strategy or just a sign that they have not (as yet) organised themselves locally.

• Glenn 21st Jun '19 - 10:35am

  Jon McHugo
  I think it because they are a single issue pressure group, have no policies as such and want to make splashier impact than gaining a few local councillors. Also Peterborough dented them. It was supposed to be the big breakthrough that would give them a foothold in parliament. Yet, with endless coverage, poll after poll on their side, in the wake of a disgraced MP forced to stand-down and in a Brexit weighted seat they still couldn’t beat Labour. To me it said that a single issue protest vote will work in an Election not many people care about;the EU turnout was pretty much as low as ever. But it will struggle when things like local services and other concerns take over.

• theakes 21st Jun '19 - 11:09am

  Isle of Wight does not show Independent who held seat had a whopping vote that appears to have split amonst several candidates.
  Latest You Gov poll Brexit 23, Lib Dems 21, Cons & Labour 20, Green 9, SNP/Plaid 5.
  Work out a result from that!

• David Raw 21st Jun '19 - 11:50am

  BRECON & RADNOR BYELECTION ANNOUNCED !!

• Yeovil Yokel 21st Jun '19 - 12:00pm

  You beat me to it, David Raw.
  My credit card is poised…..

• Richard Gadsden 21st Jun '19 - 12:05pm

  Walkden South in Salford isn’t in Wandsworth!

  The Tory councillor who resigned (triggering that by-election) is Iain Lindley, who was my opponent in the 2010 General Election. He is one of the very few pro-Remain Tories.

  I know he resigned partly because of health and work commitments, but I suspect he is very uncomfortable with the direction of the Conservative Party.

• Joseph Bourke 21st Jun '19 - 12:15pm

  David Raw,

  this Brecon & Radnor Byelecton looks like perfect timing with Jane Dodds leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats in place.

  The only downside is it will compete with our own local council by-election in the London Borough of Hounslow for Heston West Ward where we have quite a bit of catch-up work to do with 3 labour concillors on 2000+ each and the Libdem candidate on 185 in 2018.

• Paul Barker 21st Jun '19 - 12:22pm

  With 6 of the 7 contests declared the average Vote shares are
  Lab. 28%
  Con. 27%
  Libdem 17%
  roughly the same as on May 3rd.
  This is what we should expect, what has happened over the last 7 Weeks is that our Polling figures have caught up with the reality on the ground.

• Michael 1 21st Jun '19 - 12:42pm

  On the IOW a different independent got 57 per cent so there is that to share out in increases.

  On the Brexit party obv. Farage has to decide how to institute a local structure (if he does) but they are a potent force despite Peterborough expectations overrunning

  Excellent results for us which indicates opinion poll ratings are real.

• David Raw 21st Jun '19 - 12:42pm

  @ Joe Bourke With all due respect Joseph, I would suggest the Brecon by-election is of more significance to the immediate future of the Liberal Democrat party than a byelection in Hounslow – or even digging up LL.G.’s land policy and the intricacies of economic policy.

• David Becket 21st Jun '19 - 12:55pm

  Recovering from surgery I cannot make Brecon and Radnor, but I have made a donation. I trust every Lib Dem will donate, this is important for us. Brexit party is strong in Powys, but they are a single issue party and we have track record in that seat. I trust we will plug the damage a No Deal will do to the sheep industry.
  This is more important than any council by election, our best chance since Richmond.

• Michael 1 21st Jun '19 - 1:00pm

  @Paul Barker

  Actually I suspect our position is very much better than that. They key is to look at the increases and we are increasing in all areas except Ribble Valley where we are level and substantially in most.

  I suspect if you were to calculate a projected national share it would indicate above 25per cent for us. To be expected as normally our local vote share exceeds our Westminster poll rating by many points.

• GaryE 21st Jun '19 - 1:03pm

  The last time that Con defended Brecon and Radnor…May 9th 1985, Lib Dem gain from Conservative majority 559, Con came third…

• Mick Taylor 21st Jun '19 - 1:30pm

  We have a by-election in my council ward on 25th July. I suspect this may be the same day as B&R. So will come over with a team for 1 or 2 sessions, but we hope to make a gain from labour, so can’t neglect that.

• Michael 1 21st Jun '19 - 1:46pm

  Reports on Twitter that we have won 2 out of 3 in the forest of Dean a council where we didn’t have any councillors effectively 2gains off Tories although new boundaries

• John Payne 21st Jun '19 - 2:49pm

  Martin,
  I hope members in Streatham will have a real chance to select the best Lib Dem as their parliamentary candidate in a contested selection process. I fear this is unlikely especially in the event of an early GE but the local members are in a far better position to judge Chuka Umunna on his record than the party hierarchy. I agree that the prospects of holding the seat for us are good in a 60+% remain voting area based on Euro Elections.

• Paul Barker 21st Jun '19 - 2:53pm

  The Forest of Dean result really makes the case for Reform, we get 2 out of 3 Seats on a fifth of the Vote.
  On where we are, the big lesson of these 7 contests is that our Vote went up much more where we had stood before, consistency gets results.

• Gordon King 22nd Jun '19 - 8:10pm

  Keep that machine well oiled.