The morning after the by-elections. How did Lib Dems do on 19th November 2015?

Good news from Norfolk where the Liberal Democrats defended a county council seat.

The vote going up by 25.8% is a very healthy result indeed. Well done to the team there.

There was one more Liberal Democrat defence yesterday, in Epsom, where Julie Morris is the candidate. We’ll post that result here later.

UPDATE: That Epsom result is now in and it’s a heartbreaker. With just 34 votes separating the first four candidates, the Conservatives gained the seat from us.

Many commiserations to Julie and her team.

Elsewhere, how’s this for a close result, in Aylesford Green ward in Ashford? Labour and UKIP must be kicking themselves.

This one seems to buck the trend of UKIP falling back, and clearly they are taking more votes from Labour than the Tories, although both take massive hits. Good to see that we stood a candidate.

A major feature of all the results, even in fairly strong Labour areas, was the Labour vote being significantly down. With major elections coming up in London, Wales and Scotland in less than 6 months, you have to ask if this trend will be repeated. Sadly, we know how those sorts of trends ended for us.Let’s hope the strong results we have had since May at local level lead to a decent #libdemfightback then.

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11 Comments

  • Richard Easter 20th Nov '15 - 11:00am

    The worrying thing is the Labour vote going to the Tories of all parties. This bunch of Tories are the worst we have ever seen, with no ideology other than to improve the wealth of foreign multinationals. I despised Thatcher but at least her shareholder democracy was a principled idea. There is no shareholder democracy with this lot, it is all about money being syphoned out of Britain.

    Having said that I prefer Corbyn to someone like Chuka Umuna who is just as corporatist as the Tories, but just more socially liberal.

    If Labour voters though are voting Tory in their droves, then what does it say about us?

  • Matt (Bristol) 20th Nov '15 - 11:32am

    Richard — It says that they’ve bought the myth we are yesterday’s news. It’ll take a while to challenge it, longer to refute it, and a lot of consistency between our words and our actions.

  • See we lost Epsom; third a in real four-way split. We lost a little share but were castled by UKIP vote (poor – good) going back to Tories (bad).

  • David Evershed 21st Nov '15 - 12:56pm

    Richard

    You say “Having said that I prefer Corbyn to someone like Chuka Umuna who is just as corporatist as the Tories” as if being corporatist was a bad thing.

    Us Lib Dems are in favour of corporate businesses. Labour is the anti-business party.

  • David Evans 21st Nov '15 - 3:11pm

    David Evershed – Corporatism is the sociopolitical organization of a society by major interest groups, or corporate groups, such as agricultural, business, ethnic, labour, military, patronage, or scientific affiliations, on the basis of common interests, and as such is virtually the antithesis of liberalism with its emphasis on the individual. It really isn’t the same as being in favour of corporate business.

  • Three wins for the Conservatives…………….all gains.

  • Andrew McCaig 24th Nov '15 - 9:51pm

    David Evershed,

    I think my reading of Tim’s economic policy is that he is FOR entrepreneurs and small business people but AGAINST corporate business. In this he contrasts us with the Tories…

  • Andrew McCaig 24th Nov '15 - 9:58pm

    I am a bit puzzled by this though:

    “A major feature of all the results, even in fairly strong Labour areas, was the Labour vote being significantly down. With major elections coming up in London, Wales and Scotland in less than 6 months, you have to ask if this trend will be repeated. Sadly, we know how those sorts of trends ended for us.”

    Actually, we have tended to do well in terms of votes when Labour does poorly, but in terms of parliamentary seats when the Tories are low in the polls. Of course in those times we did not have UKIP mopping up the working class protest votes. It does not matter who is doing poorly if we remain at 7%

  • According to some analysis on Vote-2012 LIb Dem vote share in contested by-elections is around 18%. (19 % n seats we fought last time – up c.5%).

    Using the 2012 cycle as a comparator – ALDC’s figures for July-Dec 2011 gave us a vote share in contested elections of 22%

  • nvelope2003 26th Nov '15 - 1:01pm

    In Epsom West, Surrey Council Labour increased its vote by 2.1 % and the Greens, who did not contest the seat previously, got 2.2 %. UKIP lost 9.7% and the Liberal Democrats lost 5.4 % but the Conservatives gained 10.8 %
    2.1% + 2.2% + 1.1% = 5.4% The Liberal Democrats seem to have lost a little to Labour, Conservative and Green. Was there something different about this council ward ? There seems to be a trend for the Liberal Democrats to lose seats in the South East ( there was a loss in Woking recently) but gain a little in the West of England, Wales, Scotland and Norfolk

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