Caron Lindsay’s article discussing Ed Davey’s recent interview on Sky News makes an important point. It’s true that as Ed says the Lib Dems have increased their representation in Parliament from less than a dozen to 72 MPs. It’s true that they run more councils now than do the Conservatives. But it’s also true that their success hangs on the Conservatives not coming back from their recent lows. I think Caron Lindsay is right to say: Those circumstances will not replicate themselves and we need to be looking beyond the Blue Wall to our next gains. And to do that we need a message that is nationally relevant.

The problem is not only one for the Lib Dems. Labour too would be in trouble if the Conservatives became strong again. At the same time, it suits Labour to have the Conservatives become a bit stronger. That takes votes off Reform. To have the vote on the Right split evenly between the Tories and Reform is a perfect scenario for Labour.

Partly for this reason there is a lot of talk about an early election. This BBC report suggests the Lib Dems are going onto a ‘snap election’ footing, quoting a 30% chance of an election this year. I think this is highly unlikely. If he did that, I think Burnham would be crushed by the accusation that he’s a tinkerer who has shown himself tactically adroit but strategically hopeless. Go behind the dinky plans about noisy phones on buses and drinking at football matches, plus a few handouts in the budget, and the critics will claim there’s nothing there that wasn’t already evident in Reeves and Starmer (which is what Reeves and Starmer go round saying now). I don’t think he’ll risk an election on those terms, quite apart from the fact that he’d be giving up the guarantee of half a Parliamentary term with a huge landslide majority.

 However, what is equally true is that Burnham will face huge problems in 2027. The extra spending on defence will have to be found and taxes will have to rise – or huge spending cuts made. This is where he really will have to show some courage – and if he doesn’t, the political extremes that are currently weak will show their strength again. It will remain the case that the UK has huge and increasing levels of inequality and this will increasingly rankle with voters. As the cuts really begin to bite, the call on the Left for radical measures to reduce inequality, which was after all what brought the Greens into recent prominence, will only intensify.

And – just to fly a kite for a moment – what about the Far Right? Far right parties know how to appeal to the less well-off in society. Not for nothing did the worst example of a Far-Right party choose to call itself ‘national socialist.’  Farage has dismissed the idea of a wealth tax with the usual argument about wealthy people fleeing to Monaco and so on, but what if he were to change his mind? According to a YouGov poll, three Reform voters in five support a wealth tax. Could the classic candle start burning at both ends, with Reform and the Greens offering a radical alternative to the mainstream parties whose only argument is the need for spending cuts?

I admit that I have argued for a wealth tax myself, but my argument today is that there’s a real danger of Reform and the Greens coming back to prominence around plans for the economy. The political centre will look threatened once again – which is partly why people think Burnham will cut and run while he can. Caron Lindsay is right to say that the Lib Dems need a message that is nationally relevant and that gives the centre left an appealing vision across the political spectrum. It is time to consider some of the arguments made by groups like Positive Money, Tax Justice UK and Gary Lineker’s Patriotic Millionaires. What they suggest won’t suddenly cure all our economic ills, but it will show that there’s more to the policy of either the Lib Dems or Labour than saying that hard times are here and we all have to suffer their consequences. 

Others may have their own ideas of what the nationally relevant message Caron Lindsay calls for should be, and that’s fine. But one needs to be developed fast. It might come from Labour, but muttering about a ‘ten-year plan,’ which sounds twice as ambitious as Stalin was, doesn’t seem very convincing. It could certainly come from the Lib Dems. If ‘there is no alternative’ is the only approach on offer in the Spring when the cuts finally arrive in force, then it will once again be very hard for the centre to hold. 

* Mark Corner is a UK national, who teaches economic history and philosophy at the University of Leuven, is married to a Czech EU official and lives in Brussels. He has just published A Tale of Two Unions suggesting that Brexit may damage the British Union unless the UK becomes more positive about the way the European Union is structured.