It is early days yet but the Lib Dems are firm favourites to win the forthcoming Tiverton and Honiton by-election. A hattrick of Lib Dem wins could be in the offing.

One betting odds checker puts our probability of winning at more than 70 per cent. The probability of Boris Johnson’s demoralised Tory party winning is given as 25 per cent. Mike Smithson of Political Betting said: “The pace and the betting has been quite extraordinary given that at GE2019 the LDs came in third 46% behind the Tories.”

A focus group for Times Radio earlier this week, reported in the Times this morning, found that voters in the Devon constituency who supported the Tories in 2019 are swinging towards the Lib Dems. The focus group had harsh words for Boris Johnson, referring to him as a lying buffoon, an idiot, liar, self-promoting arsehole and a selfish, greedy man. He continues to be the gift that keeps on giving to the Lib Dems.

These voters – pro-Brexit Conservatives – feel extremely disappointed in the government with their frustrations led by Boris Johnson, lies over partygate, and a feeling that things promised have not been delivered.
Here is what they said about the Conservative leader. (2/12) pic.twitter.com/9P5p9vkD3J

— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) May 12, 2022

What about the by-election?

The issue agenda is stacked heavily in the Lib Dems’ favour. They said their most important issues were the cost of living, local issues including the NHS, doctors’ absences, potholes and housing developments in green areas. (7/12)

— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) May 12, 2022

Overall, this looks like fertile territory for the Lib Dems. This is NOT a poll: it could be the number of super-loyal Con voters is high enough to hold on. But definitely grounds for Conservative concern and a reminder of how damaged their brand is in the South. (11/12)

— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) May 12, 2022

The Times reported:

“While the voters were not enthused by Sir Ed Davey — with one describing him as the “British version of Biden, been around forever but known for not doing anything” — their hesitation about voting for his party has largely evaporated.”

One member of the focus group said of Boris Johnson: “Do the right thing, resign, we don’t want to be led by a clown.” The group dismissed Johnson’s argument that he had got the “big calls right” as “smoke and mirrors”, describing him as an opportunist.

Winning Tiverton and Honiton is a big task. But we have done the seemingly impossible in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire. With the same focused effort, a hattrick is in the offing.

* Andy Boddington is a Lib Dem councillor in Shropshire. He blogs at andybodders.co.uk.