Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

Trump’s run of good luck continues. It seems likely that all but one of his cabinet nominations will be confirmed by the Senate. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the longest of long shots for Attorney General. The Ethics Committee investigation into his drug-fuelled sex antics ruled him out.

Fox News presenter Pete Hesgeth was also expected to fail in his bid to become America’s next Secretary of Defense. A seedy past and lack of experience worked against him. But Hesgeth put up a good show against tough questioning from the Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There is nothing the Republican senators like more than a conservative who successfully fights his corner. He is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday.

The same with Pam Bondi who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s choice for Attorney General. Ms Bondi sort of mollified senators when she denied that there was a “enemies list” compiled of people Trump wants prosecuted. But she then qualified this by refusing to rule out taking action against Jack Smith, the Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate the president-elect.

Smith, for his part, is clearly angry that he will not be able to drag Donald Trump into court. This week he released a partially redacted set of documents which clearly stated that if Trump had not been elected president he would be seeing his tailor for an orange onesie. The documents claimed that Trump was guilty of election interference, disrupting an official proceeding of Congress, stealing and hiding classified documents and, almost certainly, trying to overthrow the US government.

Jack Smith is, according to FBI nominee, Kash Patel, at the top of his “enemies list”. Patel has yet to be questioned by a Senate Committee, but he has publicly said that there is an enemy list. Patel, however, will be reporting to Pam Bondi.

Trump meanwhile has insisted that there is a “patriot’s list.” That is an unidentified number of people who were prosecuted for invading the Capitol Building on January 6, 2020. He has promised that he will pardon them. He does not need the assistance of Patel or Bondi to do so. He just needs a pen and paper.

Russia

They call it hybrid warfare. Russia is becoming a master practitioner across Europe and beyond. It involves, misinformation campaigns, cyberattacks espionage and sabotage of military facilities and critical infrastructure, damaging undersea pipelines and electricity cables and interfering in democratic elections.

This week Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russians were even plotting to blow up airliners, “not just against Poland, but against airlines across the globe,” he insisted.

Meanwhile the German government this week ordered police and the air force to shoot down the growing number of drones flying over German and American military bases and critical infrastructure. The Interior Minister said they were suspected of sabotage and espionage.

But the most disturbing incidents have involved undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic. They carry gas supplies, electricity, 95 percent of the internet traffic and $10 trillion worth of annual financial transactions.

On December 26 the Finnish Coast Guard boarded and seized the Russian oil tanker Eagle S which was part of Russia’s shadow fleet of sanctions-busting tankers. The ship had been dragging its anchor along the seabed cutting the 106-mile power cable linking Estonia and Finland. The damage will take months to repair. The Eagle S was also carrying Russian spy equipment and had previously been spotted dropping surveillance sensors in the English Channel.

This was not the first incident. There have been an increasing number of reports of mutilation to the network of cables crisscrossing the bed of the Baltic Sea. The Estonian Interior Minister said there were far to many to be attributed to accidents. The prime culprits are the 17 Russian shadow oil tankers that transit the Baltic every day. Chinese vessels are also suspected.

NATO has responded to the threat by increasing surveillance of the Baltic with warships, aircraft and drones. They have dubbed the operation “Baltic Sentry.”

So far, NATO countries have been reluctant to categorically accuse Russia. The Kremlin, of course, denies any involvement.

India

India is reaching out to the Taliban. This week Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri turned up in Dubai for surprise talks with the Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The meeting represents a near 180-degree shift in Indian relations with the Taliban. Delhi was a major supporter of the Western-backed  governments in Kabul. During the 20-years that the Taliban were out of power, India invested more than $3 billion in over 500 projects. These included roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, thousands of scholarships and even a new parliament building.

The developments created a large well of goodwill towards India among the general Afghan populace which the Indian government is reluctant to write off.

But there are also geopolitical factors at play. Delhi has been increasingly worried about the diplomatic and commercial inroads that its regional rivals—Pakistan and China—have been able to make since the Taliban returned to power three years ago. Especially China which has the only ambassador in Kabul.

Delhi is also desperate to gain access to the markets of Central Asia which at the moment are blocked by Pakistan.

The plan is to route trade through the port of Chabatar at the entrance to the Persian Gulf and then move it by rail through Iran and Afghanistan to Central Asia.  The Shah of Iran started building Chabatar but problems caused by US-led sanctions led to it being taken over by India in 2018.

Routing more trade with Chabatar would also benefit landlocked Afghanistan which at the moment is almost completely dependent on Pakistan for its access to the outside world.

Normally this would not bother the Taliban, but over the past three years Afghan-Pakistan relations have substantially deteriorated. A major cause of the deterioration is terrorist attacks by the Pakistan-Taliban on Indian targets from bases in Afghanistan. Last July Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif ordered increased attacks on the Taliban bases. As a result dozens of Afghan civilians have died as a result of Pakistani air strikes.

Another advantage for the Taliban is a form of recognition from a major international player. After three years not a single country has formally recognised the Taliban government, although 40 countries have some form of diplomatic contact. India is currently represented by a single relatively junior diplomat.

There are, however, substantial risks for India. Does it want to strengthen ties with an Islamic fundamentalist government whose values are in direct conflict with their own, has close links with international terror groups and has done nothing to reform its medieval policies?

 

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".

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6 Comments

  • Russian hybrid warfare also includes GPS jamming and spoofing of civil aircraft navigation in the Baltic and now northern Norway. This and their other nefarious activities carry the very real chance of causing civilian deaths. I trust NATO is war-gaming these scenarios. If deaths do occur, does the use of cyber weapons and military electronic warfare count as “armed attack” per Article 5?

  • Craig Levene 19th Jan '25 - 10:52am

    Hesgeth was very combatative, and impressed.
    Up against some tough questioning, & also some banal tabloid ones as well, he coped easily with both. Bondi also gave as good as she got. Ultimately, when you have a politilsized judiciary this is what happens. The Manhattan proceedings should never have been brought , it gave strength to the allegations of political interference. You reap what you sow.

  • @ Craig Levine, “Bondi also gave as good as she got”. Really ?

    I’m sorry, but you’re talking about a ruthless ambitious person who began and led the chant of “Lock Her Up” about Hilary Clinton – and has committed a remarkable number of other right wing excessive extremities ever since.

  • As someone of a certain generation whose Party slogan was “People matter, People Count”, I’ve nothing to add to the BBC News today :

    “As Palestinians poured onto the streets of Gaza to celebrate the ceasefire, moments of joy faded for many as they returned to their homes to be met by destruction.

    In Jabalia, a town in a northern Gaza that is home to the largest refugee camp in the strip, pictures and videos shared by residents revealed entire neighbourhoods reduced to rubble.

    Returning to the al-Faluja area of Jabalia, Duaa al-Khalidi told BBC News: “I survived with my two daughters we came out from under the rubble of our house.

    “Here, beneath the debris, the bodies of my husband, my mother-in-law, and my sister-in-law have remained buried since 9 October.”

    I’m also of the generation taught Latin at school. Tacitus wrote something that stays with me to this day :

    ” ‘ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant’ …. ‘they create a desert and call it peace’.”

  • David Garlick 20th Jan '25 - 10:20am

    I hope that DT’s Cabinet realise that if Trump’ policies fail it is them who will take the blame.

  • Peter Hirst 2nd Feb '25 - 5:44pm

    The present UK policy with respect to Afghanistan if it has one seems to be to hope it improves its human rights policies. This opens the possibility of it working with other rogue states against the democratic ones. If India can open a dialogue with its government, then this must be a positive step. It’s ony by engaging with rulers such as The Taliban that progress can be made.

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