I’ve been reflecting on the events of 7th May, the election cycle that dominated the entire country, especially Scotland.
UK-wide, the political landscape is widely acknowledged to have changed forever, transforming from a traditional two-party system to one of perhaps four or five parties. Over time, this may become even more divergent. Westminster, as a political ecosystem, struggles to accommodate this increase in influential parties. In fact, this struggle may have been the root cause of the sea change itself.
In all the constituent nations of the Union, the rise of Reform UK is, in my opinion, the result of a protest vote, brought about by growing frustration with the lack of delivery by successive administrations. The last few parliaments in Westminster have been dogged by sleaze, controversy, and self-interest. This has led to a complete lack of focus on voters – those people who cast their vote in expectation of change and their needs being met.
In England, Reform UK is a voice of division, directed against people who are ‘different’. This includes immigrants, individuals of diverse sexual identities, and those suffering from long-term physical or mental illnesses. Essentially, it targets anyone not conforming to its core demographic: people of wealth or those who aspire to or revere wealthy individuals. It’s somewhat akin to America and the Trump faithful, who believe that wealthy people inherently possess superior knowledge.
In Wales, it appears to be a huge protest against a century of Labour dominance that has failed to deliver anything beyond policies that interfere with people’s lives: an increasingly impactful nanny state. Labour will never again achieve the dominance they once held. With Plaid Cymru now being the largest single party in the Senedd, voters have clearly said, ‘Hey, what about us?’
Here in Scotland, the situation is different, yet still familiar. Nineteen years of SNP governance have failed to truly deliver a better Scotland. The rhetoric has been that of the left and pseudo centre-left, set against a backdrop of independence. Reform UK arrives talking about waste in national and local government – something we all knew about. In terms of immigration, their poisonous message doesn’t quite resonate. After all, we proudly say we’re all ‘Jock Tamson’s bairns’, but we all know people who talk about those who are ‘not like us’. Issues of transphobia will undoubtedly be prominent on Reform UK’s Holyrood agenda; their spokesperson on the BBC Scotland Sunday morning political show could barely conceal this.
What Reform UK offered voters in Scotland was an option to protest the status quo of established political parties.
What is crucial for us liberals over the next twelve months, leading up to the local elections, is the need to not just acknowledge but also provide alternatives to the issues and frustrations that led people to vote for Reform UK.
For years, a restructuring of local government and the reform of local tax (rising through council tax) has been dangled by the SNP but never delivered. This is where the hearts of the voters lie. Every pothole, every library under threat, every school building badly in need of repair reminds voters that they are being failed.
Liberal Democrats are proud of their local champions – councillors who fight the good fight against a backdrop of local government being starved of necessary resources. This is precisely where the waste of the SNP government provides fertile ground for Reform UK: their failure to deliver anything other than unworkable and unwanted vanity projects.
We have 12 months to effectively convey our message – a timeframe that may prove insufficient. I haven’t yet discussed the Greens; observing their pre-election campaign, it’s challenging to ascertain the source of their appeal. They successfully attracted disaffected Labour voters, offering a hopeful message to younger demographics, yet this was set against an underlying, less appealing, subtext.
From my perspective, the solutions lie in local government reform and addressing the constitutional question – the latter being an issue for future national elections rather than local impact. Our manifesto’s core message was ‘Change, with Fairness at its Heart’ – a vision to which we aspire.
We doubled our MSPs, which is a significant achievement. However, we must swiftly learn the lessons from 7th May and return to the fundamental tenets of the liberal message: ‘freedom, fairness, community, opportunity, and internationalism’.
We now face a greater challenge: to prevent Reform UK and its detrimental influence from affecting our local communities.
* Les Tarr is a member of Banffshire and Buchan Coast Liberal Democrats.



3 Comments
To think that what happened on May 7th as being a protest vote, is to misunderstand the last 30 years of economic shift. There was a time that economic growth was considered *per capita*, which intended that all citizens got a slightly bigger share of the economic pie YoY. I cant be sure of the exact date, but at some point both the Reds and the Blues concluded that *absolute* growth should be the new target for the British economy, instead of *per capita*.
At that point, educating, training and re-training the incumbent British public stopped being a priority, because an educated British workforce would respond by asking for higher wages. Once the red/blue body politic decided on *absolute* growth, it became the obvious strategy to open the doors to unlimited immigration of all sorts, who would work for less wages. The consequence of this policy, was that whilst the economic pie might have grown *absolutely*, two things happened. The folk on the ground floor saw no increase in their piece of the economic pie due to the abandoned *per capita*. The folk on the top floor who utilized the cheap immigration, saw an increase in their piece of the *absolute* growing pie.
I am cognizant of the word count, but I hope you can extrapolate this to understand those that feel stuck with a 1990s size of pie?
Your analysis of Wales seems to echo Jo Stevens as Welsh Secretary who said that devolution wasn’t on the doorsteps. I thought this was a disingenuous assessment to be honest. For example, why is 20pmh the default speed limit unless changed by local councils? Well part of that is that we have an older, poorer population who are in more need of the NHS so Welsh Labour, short-changed by an unfair devolution settlement, have tried to save money by reducing the likelihood of people needing A&E and the admin costs of car accidents.
One could argue that Reform vote was a protest against the attempt at intervention, Plaid you could argue was at the root cause of the problem and that Vaughn Getthing (what a disaster he was!) had promised things would be better with Labour in Westminster and the Senedd, only for Wales to be short-changed by an anti-devolution government led by Starmer and Stevens.
You could stretch the argument to say that Wales voted against an overly interfering government and a pro-devolution party. So how come the Lib Dem vote share in Senedd elections has gone down every year since 2007?
*Plaid you could argue was a protest vote against the root cause of the problem
**Wales voted against an overly interfering government and for a pro-devolution party.