For decades Trump has been singing Putin’s praises, calling the 2014 annexation of Crimea “so smart” and his 2022 full scale invasion of Ukraine “genius”. Since the beginning of his second term in office, he has been very friendly towards Putin. However, the last few days have seen Trump be less accommodating to the Kremlin. Trump reduced Putin’s ceasefire deadline, threatened sanctions, and positioned US nuclear submarines closer to Russia. Trump is clearly growing impatient with Putin’s unwillingness to end the war. Do Trump’s recent actions signal a meaningful change in the dynamic between Trump and Putin or are Trump’s threats empty and unlikely to have an impact on his cosy relationship with Putin?

Looking to the start of Trump’s second presidency, we have seen him, time and time again make concession after concession to Russia whilst rolling back US support for Ukraine. Trump refused to reproach Putin for invading Ukraine, voted alongside Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion, and his administration has held ‘peace’ talks with Putin without Zelenskyy. He has further acted in the Kremlin’s interests by stepping back from NATO, and undermining western consensus on the war.

Trump has also been very hostile towards Ukraine directly. On two occasions, Trump paused the delivery of military supplies to Ukraine. This, alongside the US’ decision to withdraw intelligence, emboldened Putin to increase his assault on Ukrainian cities. Trump has displayed personal animosity towards Zelenskyy, calling him a “dictator” and humiliating him in the Oval Office. This is while Trump shows that he respects Putin; he would “love” to see Russia back in the G7, and has expressed his keenness for US-Russian investment projects. Trump likes strongmen and enjoys entertaining the idea that large nations should make all the decisions, whilst leaving smaller nations to be subject to these decisions, and so it is clear which leader he admires more.

In the last few days however, Trump called out Putin’s “bullshit”, threatened new economic sanctions and stationed US submarines closer to Russia. Yes, Trump has previously criticised Putin for attacking Kyiv, killing 12 people, which he called “unnecessary” and “badly timed.” However, Trump has not shown signs of frustration before like he is now. Can we see these actions as a shift in Trump’s view of Putin?

In short, no.

Trump has not done a 180 degrees turn on Putin, he is simply growing impatient. Trump ran part of his election campaign on the idea that he could stop the war in “24 hours”, at the time of writing it has been 197 days. The peace deal that Trump thought he could manufacture can only work if both sides genuinely want peace. Putin’s continued attacks on Ukrainian cities show that Putin’s desire for peace is no different now to when he launched his full scale invasion in February 2022. This reality is now slowly dawning on Trump. Putin’s method in negotiations has been to stall and to derail progress, and because this reflects badly on Trump, given his promises, he is now starting to get frustrated.

However, what does not follow from this is that Trump has decided to take a firm stance towards Putin; his actions have largely been empty and symbolic.

Following Trump’s statement that sanctions on Russian oil will stop the war: “If you get energy down, another $10 a barrel, he’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks”, he has threatened to erect more tariffs on Russia and its energy importing allies, like India. Whilst sanctions can be an effective geopolitical tool, Trump himself has admitted that Russia is “pretty good at avoiding sanctions.” Despite hundreds of sanctions, Russia has hitherto been able to fund its war using its energy profits, so the effectiveness of more sanctions is open to doubt.

Making this move emptier is the reality that for Putin, his war goals take precedence over giving into Trump’s demands. Putin’s legacy in Russia is now heavily tied to the outcome of his invasion. His long held belief in defending Russia against western incursion and in the “historical unity of Russia and Ukraine” makes the threat of sanctions one with little potential to stop Putin from trying to fulfil his maximalist ambitions on Ukrainian territory.

Also, after Medvedev’s tweet blaming Trump of playing “the ultimatum game”, of which each one is a “step towards war” and warning of a “dead hand threat”, Trump stationed long range nuclear missiles closer to Russia. However, the US’ long range missiles do not have to be closer to Russia to be more of a threat; they can hit Russian targets from the Atlantic sea, so this was a purely symbolic move.

Despite Trump’s impatience with Putin throwing a spanner in the works in their relationship, Trump, as of now, is not ready to take meaningful action against Putin to push him to end his invasion. The blip in their relationship is temporary; it is only a matter of time before Trump’s administration holds ‘peace’ talks with Putin, which like before, unfairly do not offer Zelenskyy a seat at the negotiating table.

* Natalie Andrusyschyn is a Liberal democrat member, a second year History student at Durham University and Deputy Comment Editor at the Palatinate student newspaper.