ALDC by-election report, 15th October

Five principal authority by-elections took place across England and Wales this week – one on Tuesday 13th October and four on Thursday 15th October.

The Liberal Democrats were defending two seats (in Wiltshire and Mid Devon), Labour defended one in Gloucestershire, Reform UK defended one in Leicestershire, and an Independent defence in North Wales.

It was an exceptional week of defensive strength for the Liberal Democrats, holding both of our contested seats with authority. In Mid Devon, we swept nearly three-quarters of the vote in Bradninch, while in Wiltshire, we halted a Conservative comeback in Salisbury Milford. Elsewhere, Reform UK’s defensive slump continued, marking over a month without a by-election victory, as Labour gained Shepshed in Leicestershire, held off the Greens in Stroud, and localist group Flintshire People’s Voice secured a landslide gain in Wales.

 

Salisbury Milford, Wiltshire UA – 15 October

In Wiltshire, the Liberal Democrats successfully held the Salisbury Milford division on Wiltshire Council following a competitive contest with the Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats have made consistent gains in Wiltshire across the 2021 and 2025 county elections. In 2025, we ended decades of Conservative rule, becoming the largest group with 43 seats (to the Conservatives’ 37, Reform UK’s 10, Independents’ 7, and Labour’s 3) and forming a minority administration with Independent support. The Wiltshire wards of Salisbury form a bit of a patchwork with Lib Dems, Reform, Labour, Conservative and Independent councillors holding seats. Milford was gained from the Conservatives in that 2025 breakthrough with a 16-point swing.

Last night, Mac McIntyre Brown stopped a Conservative recovery in its tracks, increasing our vote share to 45.6% (+1.7%) and maintaining a solid 9.2 percentage point lead over the Conservatives. This success was compounded on Salisbury City Council, where our candidate Lawrence Gillies was also elected in a city council by-election on the same day.

Huge congratulations to newly elected Cllr Mac McIntyre Brown, Lawrence Giles and the team in Salisbury on a well-fought (double!) victory!

Lib Dem (Mac McIntyre Brown): 759 (45.6%, +1.7%)

Conservative: 605 (36.4%, +12.4%)

Reform UK: 189 (11.4%, -6.7%)

Labour: 110 (6.6%, -2.1%)

Turnout: 40.0%

Liberal Democrat HOLD

 

Bradninch, Mid Devon DC – 15 October 2026

Over in Devon, the Liberal Democrats delivered a dominant defence in the Bradninch ward of Mid Devon District Council.

The Liberal Democrats took majority control of Mid Devon in 2023 for the first time since 1999, securing 33 seats while reducing the Conservatives to just 5. When the new Bradninch ward was first contested in 2023, we won an overwhelming 82% of the vote against only Labour and the Conservatives.

While the headline vote share showed a slight decline due to a more crowded five-candidate field – with both Reform UK and the Greens standing this time – Mary Ryan hoovered up nearly three-quarters of the total vote on 72.5%. An astonishing achievement and continues our party’s remarkable defensive record in local by-elections.

Congratulations to Cllr Mary Ryan and the Mid Devon campaign team on a massive win!

Lib Dem (Mary Ryan): 476 (72.5%, -9.7%)

Reform UK: 91 (13.9%, new)

Conservative: 37 (5.6%, -0.6%)

Labour: 31 (4.7%, -6.9%)

Green Party: 21 (3.2%, new)

Turnout: 39.5%

Liberal Democrat HOLD

 

Rodborough, Stroud DC – 13 October

In Gloucestershire, Labour successfully defended a seat in the Rodborough ward of Stroud District Council in a Tuesday by-election.

Stroud remains under No Overall Control, with the Green Party running a minority administration after becoming the largest group at the 2024 local elections, holding 22 seats (up 9) to Labour’s 20 (up 5), the Conservatives’ 7 (down 13), and the Liberal Democrats’ 2 (down 1). The Liberal Democrats had previously served in coalition with the Green Party and Labour until the 2024 elections dislodged the Conservatives as the largest party.

Rodborough was a prime pickup opportunity for the Green Party: when both seats were contested in 2024, Labour held on by a margin of just over 2% between the second-placed Labour candidate and the leading Green challenger.

However, Labour achieved a decisive hold, lifting their vote share by +13.2% to 47.0% and widening their lead to over 15 percentage points. The result reflects a growing resilience for Labour against the Greens under Andy Burnham’s premiership, stemming earlier Green momentum that saw Labour lose swathes of seats across Manchester and parts of London earlier this year.

For the Liberal Democrats, this was not active target territory. But having not contested the ward since 2016, former district councillor and 2024 parliamentary candidate George James ensured that local residents had an orange option on the ballot. Thank you, George!

Labour: 697 (47.0%, +13.2%)

Green Party: 470 (31.7%, +1.5%)

Reform UK: 191 (12.9%, new)

Conservative: 103 (6.9%, -3.9%)

Lib Dem (George James): 23 (1.5%, new)

Turnout: 42.3%

Labour HOLD

 

Shepshed, Leicestershire CC – 15 October 2026

In Leicestershire, Labour pulled off an impressive gain from Reform UK in the Shepshed division of Leicestershire County Council.

Leicestershire was historically solid Conservative territory until the 2025 county elections, when Reform UK became the largest party with 25 seats and formed a minority administration. In Shepshed (part of the Charnwood district), Reform won the seat in 2025 with 45% of the vote from a standing start, pushing the Conservatives down to 25% and Labour to third on 18%.

This by-election saw a dramatic turnaround. Labour surged by +14.9% to leapfrog both the Conservatives and Reform UK to take the division. Reform UK’s vote dropped by 13.6 points, partially split by the Restore party, underscoring the ongoing difficulties Reform UK face in retaining seats won during their 2025 breakthrough. This is not traditional Lib Dem territory, which is primarily concentrated in areas to the south like Oadby and Wigston.

Thank you to Katy Brookes-Duncan for flying the Liberal Democrat flag in this race.

Labour: 1,163 (32.8%, +14.9%)

Reform UK: 1,110 (31.3%, -13.6%)

Conservative: 819 (23.1%, -2.3%)

Restore: 228 (6.4%, new)

Lib Dem (Katy Brookes-Duncan): 115 (3.2%, -3.5%)

Green Party: 112 (3.2%, -1.9%)

Turnout: 29.65%

Labour GAIN from Reform UK

 

Higher Kinnerton, Flintshire CC – 15 October 2026

Across the border in North Wales, localist party Flintshire People’s Voice won a crushing victory in the Higher Kinnerton division of Flintshire County Council.

Higher Kinnerton was created in 2022 and was initially won uncontested by an Independent. Flintshire Council has largely been balanced between Labour and Independent groups. Flintshire People’s Voice was formed in April 2024 when five sitting Labour councillors crossed the floor over internal cabinet accountability issues.

In this contest, Flintshire People’s Voice claimed an astonishing 91.3% of the vote, leaving the Conservatives, Reform UK, and Heritage tied in single digits. No Liberal Democrat candidate stood in this division.

Flintshire People’s Voice: 566 (91.3%, new)

Conservative: 21 (3.4%, new)

Reform UK: 21 (3.4%, new)

Heritage Party: 10 (1.6%, new)

Independent: 2 (0.3%, new)

Turnout: Not declared

Flintshire People’s Voice GAIN from Independent

A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here: https://www.aldc.org/category/by-election-results/

 

* Joe Nutt is a Campaigns and Communications Officer for ALDC

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One Comment

  • Kevin Hawkins 16th Oct '26 - 5:24pm

    There has been a lot of discussion on Lib Dem Voice about our party’s performance in different parts of the country with a number of people commenting that we only seem relevant in the south of England.

    To provide some facts towards this discussion I have compiled a list of how parties have performed throughout this year in local by-elections in the standard English regions
    The following list is in descending order of Lib Dem share of the vote.

    South-West LD 36.82%, Ref 23.72%, Con 18.89%, Grn 13.69%, Lab 5.46%
    South-East LD 23.30%, Ref 22.06%, Grn 21.10%, Con 20.78%, 11.08%
    Yorkshire/Humber Ref 28.32%, Lab 25.58%, LD 19.12%, Con 14.77%, Grn 11.08%
    Eastern Ref 27.92%, Con 27.39%, LD 18.82%, Grn 11.31%, Lab 9.10%
    North-East Ref 34.52%, Lab 32.88%, LD 11.90%, Con 8.21%, Grn 6.92%
    West Midlands Ref 33.91%, Con 25.65%, Lab 15.02%, LD 11.79%, Grn 9.56%
    Greater London Lab 35.95%, Grn 33.08%, Con 13.15%, LD 9.46%, Ref 5.98%
    East Midlands Ref 29.48%, Con 19.69%, Grn 18.77%, Lab 15.70%, LD 6.80%
    North-West Ref 26.06%, Lab 24.91%, Grn 14.84%, Con 14.33%, LD 5.27%

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