Your 2022 by-elections in review! Many congratulations to Lib Dems across the country year this, as we won 51 council by-elections this year, including 30 gains from other parties (Conservative, Labour, Green Party and independents). This is a net gain of 25 seats – significantly more than other parties!
Voters went to the ballot box in only one place this week, as the one and only by-election rounds off 2022 for Christmas. In Normanby ward in Redcar and Cleveland, we thank Tracy Jacobs for standing for the Lib Dems! A narrow Conservative gain from Labour, with multiple independents taking chunks of the vote – full results below:
Normanby, Redcar & Cleveland UA
Conservative: 389 [37.5%, +15.9%]
Labour: 357 [34.5%, +2.4%]
Independent: 143 [13.8%, +13.8%]
Independent: 109 [10.5%, +10.5%]
Liberal Democrat (Tracy Jacobs): 38 [3.7%, -12.9%]
Conservative GAIN from Labour
* Alan Good is a councillor on Manchester City Council and the Campaigns and Communications Intern working with ALDC.
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12 Comments
Whatever happened at Normanby? The LD vote was only 5% percent behind Tory and has gone back to 2019 territory for that area. Were the Inds Brexiteers? It is all very worrying.
Richard Charles Went. You are correct in your observation, Richard, indeed the Redcar constituency elected a Lib Dem MP with 45.2% of the vote as recently as 2010.
Two Independents each taking a substantial share of the vote suggests hyper-local factors, which implies that there is little to be read into this result by way of national politics.
Turnout was only down by about three fifths, surprising for the week before Xmas. Politics here is complex, the Local council is a mix of Lab, Con, Libdems & Independents. The last time this Seat was fought in 2019 UKIP were a strong second place with Libdems last. Clearly most of the UKIP vote went to The Tories & there was a Two-Party squeeze. There may have been some feeling against the current Administration which includes The Libdems.
There may be an indication here of a trend towards “A plague on all your houses.” whereby people are getting fed up with any political parties. We reckon (rightly) that the Tories are becoming reviled but are we or indeed any opposition party doing enough to be viewed as the great solution to the public’s ills?
The trouble with looking at one week’s results is that the number of by-elections is too few for meaningful analysis. Similarly to look at all the by-elections this year is to go back too far – two Prime Ministers ago in fact. That’s why I prefer my own methodology of looking at just the most recent fifty by-elections which while not perfect gives I think a more realistic view.
In spite of losing a lot of seats the Conservatives have now overtaken Labour in percentage share of the vote. Contrast this with early 1997 when Labour had a 14.3% lead in local elections.
Vote share: (The equivalent data for the fifty by-elections up to the end of November is given in brackets).
Conservatives 31.3% (29.0%)
Labour 30.1% (32.6%).
Liberal Democrats 16.1% (16.5%)
Greens 8.7% (9.2%)
Others 13.9% (12.8%)
Gains and losses are:
Labour: Net gain of nine: 10 gains, 8 held, 1 lost
Lib Dems: Net loss of seven: 10 gains, 1 held, 3 lost
Residents: Net gain of one: 1 gain, 0 held, 0 lost
Independents: Net loss of two: 1 gain, 5 held, 3 lost
Greens: Net loss of one: 0 gains, 2 held, 1 lost
Conservatives: Net loss of fourteen: 5 gains, 9 held, 19 lost
Labour won 18 seats, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 11, Independents 6, Greens 2, Residents 1
This data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (13th October to 22nd December). Parish/Town councils are not included. Seats won adds up to 52 because of double elections in two wards.
I’m not sure where Alan Good gets his “This is a net gain of 25 seats – significantly more than other parties!” from. I agree about the net gain of 25 seats, but Labour have a net gain of 26.
Admittedly, my data doesn’t include Scotland but I don’t think that would make a significant difference.
(Just for the record I have the Tories on a net loss of 47.)
@Kevin Hawkins
“Lib Dems: Net loss of seven: 10 gains, 1 held, 3 lost”
Net GAIN of seven!
Someone from Redcar can better talk about this, but from what I hear there were flying squads of tories from all round Tees Valley pouring in. They can do this, with money in their pockets. Also labour are in a mess as when they lost the MP they lost the HQ, staff etc. They aren’t like us that have to manage without such.
This is just what i have picked up, others will be able to say more.
It’s a pity there was no report from last week’s by-elections. We made one gain from the Tories another from Independents, and real progress elsewhere. We need to shout out loud when we have good news.
@Suzanne Fletcher
I trust Unite feel they got value for money out of trashing the reputation of the former MP Anna Turley (Irony alert)
@Nonconformistradical
Apologies – it should read Gain. The perils of cutting and pasting! I’ll try to be more careful in future.