ALDC by-election report, 25th January

There was just one principal council by-election contested this week which took place in Scotland on Stirling Council.

Thank you to Lib Dem candidate Dick Moerman for standing for Liberal Democrats in Dunblane and Bridge of Allan ward and getting nearly 300 first preference votes. The ward was held by the Conservatives.

Stirling Council, Dunblane and Bridge of Allan
Conservative: 1644 (38%, +6.5%)
SNP: 1000 (23%, -3.9%)
Labour: 869 (20%, +7.8%)
Green: 433 (10%, -6.8%)
Liberal Democrats (Dick Moerman): 292 (7%, -3.1%)
Scottish Family Party: 50 (1%, +0.5%)

A full summary of all results for this week and previous weeks can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.

* Charles Quinn is Campaigns Organiser for ALDC and a local councillor in Hull.

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11 Comments

  • Paul Barker 26th Jan '24 - 7:21pm

    This result fits withe shift in the Scottish Polls which have seen The SNPs lead fade away over the past Year. Labour now are probably slightly ahead.
    The Tories seem to have found new depths to sink to, averaging below 25% in British Polling.

  • Tom Hannigan 26th Jan '24 - 9:29pm

    Hard to see how you can say that fits with the Tories sinking to new depths when their vote in this by-election is up 6.5%. Clearly, the Tory vote in Scotland is more solid than in England and Wales.

  • Tom,

    I think Paul is the one who has always been a glass half full man, even when it is nearly empty. I seem to remember him telling us that Labour were going to collapse for several years post coalition with the implication that we would recover. Well they haven’t collapsed and we haven’t recovered anything like enough.

    Currently the message seems to be that there are two anti-government movements in the polls and local elections. The SNP are falling substantially in Scotland and the Tories in England, Labour are doing better in both. Sadly we seem to be in the same old rut. I seem to remember Pink Floyd singing “hanging on in quiet desperation is the Lib’ral way,” but I could be wrong on that. 🙁

  • Yeovil Yokel 27th Jan '24 - 9:00am

    David Evans – the line from Pink Floyd’s Dark Side of the Moon (Time) is:

    “Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.”

    It’s surprising what you can remember from your teenage years.

  • Peter Davies 27th Jan '24 - 9:42am

    The seat was last fought in 2022. It was a bad year for the Tories and a reasonable one for the SNP. It was of course an STV election while the by-election is AV so comparisons tell us little but current opinion polls suggest that the SNP rather than the Tories will be the big losers in Scotland. I believe we are hoping for nominal gains from the SNP by two of our sitting MPs

  • Kevin Hawkins 27th Jan '24 - 10:14am

    For those interested in a longer term view rather than one week’s results here is my monthly data for the last fifty local by-elections up to the end of January:

    Labour 27.4%, Liberal Democrats 27.3%, Conservatives 25.9%, Greens 9.0%, Reform UK 0.8%, Others 9.7%

    Gains and losses are:
    Lib Dems: Net gain of thirteen: 13 gains, 11 held, 0 lost
    Green: Net loss of one: 1 gain, 2 held, 2 lost
    Others: Net loss of one: 1 gain, 1 held, 2 lost
    Labour: Net loss of two: 1 gains, 11 held, 3 lost
    Independents: Net loss of three: 2 gain, 1 held, 5 lost
    Conservatives: Net loss of six: 2 gains, 7 held, 8 lost

    Liberal Democrats won 24 seats, Labour 12, Conservatives 9, Greens 3, Independents 3, Others 2. (Does not add up to 50 because of double-elections in some wards)

    Lib Dems winning 24 seats is their highest score I have ever recorded in these monthly tables – and my data goes back to June 1996.

    This data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (26th October to 18th January). Parish/Town councils are not included.

  • There was along period, (spring 2020 to spring 2021) when were stuck around 7% in the Polls, that was a bit depressing.
    The fundamental factor in this Election will be Tactical Voting, that’s what will get us MPs & Polling will follow that.

  • Peter Davies 27th Jan '24 - 2:15pm

    “The fundamental factor in this Election will be Tactical Voting, that’s what will get us MPs & Polling will follow that.”
    The polls won’t necessarily follow that. If we get a 20% swing to us in the seats where we can win and a 4% swing away in seats we can’t, the polls will see us going down.

  • Alex Macfie 27th Jan '24 - 6:05pm

    @Peter Davies: But in an actual election it would be seen as a success if it led to winning our target seats. In 1997 the nationwide Lib Dem vote fell slightly, but it is regarded as a successful election for us because we went up from 20 seats (in 1992) to 46. In 2019 we increased our vote share by about 4 percentiles, but the election result is seen as poor for us because we had a net loss of 1 seat from 2017. 2010 was also a disappointment because we fell back in seats despite an increased nationwide vote share from 2005.

    I would be very happy with a 1997-style result for the Lib Dems (even if it included a drop in vote share). I do not want a 2010 or 2019. Our performance will judged by the rules of the game, which in this case is FPTP.

  • Paul Barker 27th Jan '24 - 8:29pm

    Sorry I didn’t make myself clear – when we get more MPs that will lead to us going up in the Polls. Voters will take us more seriously & we will be seen & heard more. A Vote for us will seem like less of a “Waste”.
    The same goes for Councillors of course but Britain is vert Westminster focused.

  • Peter Clarkson 1st Feb '24 - 11:07am

    This ward was also fought in a by election in March 2023 and the Tories are 3.3% down on that.

    @ Tom Hannigan

    That’s right. The Tory vote is a lot more solid in Scotland in general, partly due to the unusual dynamics in Scotland, the yes/no dynamic etc. They may even gain a few seats in Scotland at the GE even while losing lots of seats in England and Wales.

    It’s tricky to see a much of a Lib Dem revival in Scotland outside of the Highlands, Edinburgh, Fife and East Dunbartonshire so 6 MPs is the maximum.

    I wouldn’t completely underestimate the SNP due to strength among the under 40s but I do think they’ll do much worse than expected if they only get a third of the vote under FPTP. It is even possible they get reduced to a rump of around 10 seats with boundary changes benefitting Tories and Labour.

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