This week, there was only one-by election, where we were attempting to successfully defend a council seat.
Congratulations to Councillor Matt Fry and the local Liberal Democrat team for holding our seat in Luton with a strong result. Despite a crowded field and the entry of new parties into the race, the team secured a solid 41.3% of the vote, ensuring a Liberal Democrat hold.
Luton BC, Stopsley
Liberal Democrats (Matt Fry): 935 (41.3%, -36.3)
Reform UK: 820 (36.2%, new)
Labour: 251 (11.1%, -11.3)
Conservative: 152 (6.7%, new)
Green Party: 87 (3.8%, new)
Independent: 19 (0.8%, new)
Liberal Democrats HOLD
Turnout: 24.8%
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams. A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Liam Yip is the Campaigns and Communications Intern at ALDC
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13 Comments
This result was too close for comfort. Reforms rise was nearly all at our expense. There are 6 by elections next week, including another one in Bedfordshire. These are trying times and Reform are benefitting from that.
What’s happening in Middle England ?
Although the figures look disappointing, we need to remember that in 2023, Luton was largely a simple Lib Dem v Labour battleground across most wards. Of 48 seats Lab won 30, we won 15 and Con just 3. Stopsley was a typical one with only us and Labour standing.
As a result we got all the anti Labour vote from Cons, Greens plus the generally disillusioned. Probably most of the disillusioned went to Reform plus a good few Labour. The core Conservative vote voted for its candidate and likewise the Greens.
But our team in Luton showed that all the hard work its activists have put in has created and maintained a core of voters for our party.
All in all it shows once again that we are the one party that in its heartlands can beat the Reform surge consistently. Labour can’t. The Cons can’t. Maybe the Greens can in their 4 seats but there isn’t a lot of evidence there. The 2026 elections in Scotland and Wales will show if the SNP and Plaid can – we need to hold and build on our own areas a little there.
Ian is right it is too close for comfort, but it is a clear signal as to what we need to do.
This was and has been a safe Lib Dem ward for four sets of local elections. The reform vote is very very threatening.
This is probably the first time they have successfully attracted our vote. We should be worried, not complacent.
David Evans – A Holyrood poll this week has Lib Dems constituency vote up 5%, and list vote up 9%, for a projected 14 seats, largely but not exclusively at the Tories’ expense:
https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3ly3gnuyi6c26
So we lose 36.3% and Reform rises by 36.2%…
This implies a substantial switch of our voters to Reform though I’m sure some of this will be our voters not voting and previous non voters now voting Reform. That said, undoubtedly some Liberal Democrats will have switched to Reform.
AIUI this ward is not exactly the “Middle England” David Raw is thinking about – it’s quite a traditional white working class area. So the kind of area that traditionally would have been Labour but has been represented by Lib Dems through decades of hard work and community politics. Reform were very bullish about winning here (the Express even ran a piece in anticipation) so it was a solid result to hold the ward, in the absence of the personal vote of the sadly deceased former councillor.
These wards in Luton have been won year after year by hard work and community politics where our core vote is probably below 5 % and people recognise our hard work…so much so that at the last election the majority of parties didn’t even think it was worth putting up candidates. The demographic of the ward is ideal for Reform…2 large council / ex council estates and small lower middle class skilled worker housing…so to hold on against a campaign hugely supported by the central Reform Party organisation is probably a much better result than the average Lib dem member realises
Labour lost 11pc to Reform. We lost 26pc of our voters to Reform. Conservative and Green standing for first time. So finally we can say that Reform can take votes directly from us.
It’s always worth remembering when discussing local bye-elections that more people will have switched between voting and not voting than directly between parties. At 24% turnout with four new parties this will be more so than most.
This is a very solid result.
This ward demographically is typical of wards where Reform does very well.
In the previous election, only LD and Labour stood.
It’s psephologically naive to expect no significant drop in the LD vote with the entry of Green, Con
and Reform candidates.
Well done to the local party, holding a seat in deep Reform territory; badly done to the usual poorly informed defeatists commenting on here.
Momentum is with Reform and we beat them.
Well done.
Hi Paul (Culloty),
Thanks for pointing out the result of the recent Holyrood Poll. I had noticed the Election Maps post of the More in Common analysis, but hadn’t had time to look at it in detail, so didn’t mention it.
The one thing you mention that I can’t see is the bit where you say our vote is up “largely but not exclusively at the Tories’ expense.” It could easily be true. Can you provide a better link?